Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Risk Appetite Boosted By Intel Numbers

Briefing
The dollar was lower against the euro in Asian trade Wednesday though little changed against the yen, as Asian players took Tuesday's news of the successful Greek auctions as a big tick for the single currency.

Risk was given a further boost by the overnight release of strong Intel earnings, which in turn boosted equity markets into Asia. The strong release in Singapore growth data, with the resulting MAS adjustment to the NEER currency band, also allowed for a gradual appreciation in the Sgd.

Japanese and Korean stock markets opened in positive territory and prompted early demand for yen crosses, with the Aussie also making decent gains. Australian consumer confidence index retained a robust tone in the face of recent rate hikes, losing just 1-pt to 116.1.

The euro was last trading at $1.3650, just shy of the session high $1.3665, having ended the NYC session just below $1.3600. However, traders say flows have been light, with some sellers emerging ahead of the European session. Dollar-yen traded a tight Y93.17/35 range, with trade dictated by cross action.

Euro
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.3614, edged to $1.3617 before easing back to mark lows at $1.3603 before picking up fresh demand interest. Risk appetite into the Tokyo open was boosted as Japanese and Korean opened in positive territory, taking its lead from the strong earnings report from Intel overnight. A major Swiss name was cited for driving the rate up to $1.3640, as risk was further boosted by the release of strong Singaporean growth data which led to the MAS adjusting its NEER band, recentring and shifting to a modest and gradual appreciation of the Sgd. Euro-dollar continued to push higher, extending recovery to $1.3666.

Rate eased off highs but found support between $1.3650/45, currently around $1.3655. Asian traders have noted that the Swiss private bank was showing demand interest early on around the $1.3620 level. A break below here to open an easing back toward the overnight lows, with bids noted between $1.3605/00. Resistance $1.3666, a break above to open a move toward Monday's highs at $1.3692, with offers seen from here and extending toward $1.3700.

RES 4: $1.3912/25 Implied target, 50% of 2010 range
RES 3: $1.3819 High 17 Mar
RES 2: $1.3710 Current top of Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.3692 High 12 Apr

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3650

SUP 1: $1.3499/05 Intraday gap, 21-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.3270/80 Low 25 Mar, 8 Apr
SUP 3: $1.3246/50 Low 6 May, 50% projection level
SUP 4: $1.3057 38.2% of $0.8232 to $1.6039


Yen
Opened in early Europe around Y93.24 and Y127.33 Dollar-yen had a relatively quiet session overnight trading Y93.16 - Y93.37 in Asian trade despite the general risk on theme to the session. News of the successful Greek auction helped investors confidence and this saw demand for cross-yen. Euro-yen managed to rally from Y126.78 to Y127.46 after yesterdays whippy trade saw stops taken out on both sides of the range.

However the cross once again stalled ahead of the Y127.50 area as some of the longs took profit, but this level finally gave way in early European trade as follow on buying took out the offers. Dollar-yen too pushed higher in early European trade taking out resistance at the Y93.40 area as the risk on theme continues. Better than expected GDP out of Singapore overnight helping to boost risk appetite.

RES 4: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug 2009, 61.8% retracement of 2009 decline
RES 3: Y94.72/78 76.4% retracement of Aug/Nov decline, High 2 April
RES 2: Y93.80 Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud
RES 1: Y93.15 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: Y93.24

SUP 1: Y92.55/57 21-day moving average, Low 13 Apr
SUP 2: Y92.23/27 38.2% of 4 Mar, Support line 4Mar,50% of 18 Mar rallies
SUP 3: Y91.35/45 200-day moving average, 50% of 4 March rally
SUP 4: Y90.95/00 Top of Ichimoku cloud, 55-day moving average


Cable
Opened Asia around $1.5380 and initially eased back to mark session lows at $1.5371 before picking up fresh demand as risk appetite received a boost, Asian equity markets opening firm following strong Intel earnings figures after the bell. Risk appetite gained a further boost as Singapore growth data beat all forecasts, prompting the MAS to recenter the Sgd in its NEER banding. Cable recovery moved above $1.5400, extending to $1.5427 in this session, with added demand into early Europe taking it on to $1.5440. Rate currently trades around $1.5425.

Cable offers now seen from around that failed high, with interest extending toward Tuesday highs at $1.5450, a break to open a move on toward $1.5460/65 ahead of Monday's high at $1.5486. Offers noted from this latter level, extending toward $1.5500. Support seen at $1.5405/395 ahead of $1.5375/70, with stronger interest remaining in place toward $1.5350.

RES 4: $1.5620 50% of 2010 decline
RES 3: $1.5580 High 23 Feb
RES 2: $1.5530 Current top of the daily Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.5486 High 12 Apr

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5405

SUP 1: $1.5370 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5180 21-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.5145 50% retracement (valid while $1.5486 remains the high)
SUP 4: $1.4820 Current base of the daily Bollinger band

0 comments:


Live Economic Calendar Powered by the Forex Trading Portal Forexpros.com

FOREX SIGNAL 40 - 100 Pips a day by ICT and Daily Analysis. Powered by Blogger