Wednesday, September 30, 2009

NordMarkets Morning FX - September 30

MORNING FX
BRIEFING
The Aussie was the big mover in Asian trade as stronger-than-expected Australian retail sales data cemented expectations of an RBA rate hike before year-end. Traders said there was already a natural bid tone as month-end real-money hedging went through, with the data release then giving the rate another 60-point kick higher to a fresh 2009 high at $0.8805. Elsewhere, talk of sizeable half-year-end fixing demand of foreign currencies proved to be inaccurate as dollar-yen was sold heavily into the fix after hitting early highs at Y90.42. Euro-yen had traded up to Y132.04 before giving back over 100-points to trade on a Y130 handle into early Europe, as dollar-yen comes back to Y89.55. Euro-dollar meanwhile regained a foothold above $1.4600 on the back of the Aussie move, rallying to $1.4633 in Asia, with early Europe taking the rate to $1.4640. Sterling continued its recovery in the wake of Tuesday's strong UK CBI retail sales data and talk that the BoE would not be lowering the reserve rate any time soon. Cable moved to $1.6035 in Asia and has extended the bounce to $1.6049 in recent trade.

EURO
Euro-dollar closed the US session around $1.4585, Asian trade then seeing a bid tone emerge as Aussie rallied strongly on better retail sales data. Traders reported stops being hit on the break back above $1.4600, with little in the way of supply to counter the move. Gains extended to $1.4633, with euro-dollar remaining buoyed on a $1.46 handle through the balance of the Asian day. Early European dealing then provided the added push for a move to $1.4644, the rate currently trading back around $1.4625. Techs are noting the rate failed to close below the 21-day moving average last night, today seen as pivotal at $1.4580. Bids said to be forming on the downside at $1.4530, said to be semi-official in nature. Topside orderboards said to be pretty mixed with no clear bias. Attention today now centred around the ECB one-year liquidity tender, due to close at 0900GMT.

YEN
Dollar-yen closed a quiet US afternoon session around Y90.10, while euro-yen ended firm around Y131.43. Talk of strong demand for foreign currencies versus the yen at the half year-end fix circulated into the Asian session, pushing dollar-yen up to Y90.42 before offers began to stack up from exporters. Euro-yen followed a similar path, trading up to Y132.04 before fixing sales knocked the yen pairs back. Traders noted a Japanese agricultural bank as a decent seller, local real-money accounts also active as dollar-yen slipped back below Y90.00. Heavier tone prevailed into the Tokyo afternoon as dollar-yen retreated to Y89.63, early Europe then knocking the pair lower still to Y89.55 as euro-yen gave back over 100-points from the overnight highs to lows under Y131.00. Bids noted into Y89.50 with some stop interest below. On the topside, talk now of large stops from CTA and model accounts on a break of Y90.50/55. Euro-yen demand comes in around Y130.70, key support still seen as the 200-day moving average at Y129.60.

EURUSD - TECHNICALS
Turning to the technical picture, the euro is still looking corrective with a weak daily stochastic study and a negative break for momentum. Near-term the 21-day moving average is lending support at $1.4580 with initial resistance at the 5-DMA at $1.4645. Outside of there, support/resistance is $1.4526/$1.4802.

RES 4: $1.4908 High Aug 22 2008, Daily Bollinger band top
RES 3: $1.4851/62 100% projection of the Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep 2008
RES 2: $1.4802 High 24 Sept
RES 1: $1.4645 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4633

SUP 1: $1.4580 21-DMA, Low 28 Sept
SUP 2: $1.4526 Low 29 Sep
SUP 3: $1.4447 High 5 Aug
SUP 4: $1.4330 Low 8 Sept


GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
Cable has recovered into the Bollinger band and also overtaken the 5-DMA, which turn support at $1.5940 and $1.5820. The daily stochastic remains soft, although both it and momentum are attempting to turn off lows. There is a congestion level at $1.6085 ahead of former Sep lows at$1.6115/34. While $1.5770 remains the low, the main Fibonacci retracements are $1.6141/1.6255, $1.6369 and $1.6406 with more minor Fibonacci levels at $1.6119, $1.6201 and $1.6303.

RES 4: $1.6467 High 23 Sep
RES 3: $1.6320/30 21, 100-day moving average, Low 23 Sept
RES 2: $1.6115/34 Lows 1, 21 Sept
RES 1: $1.6085 Hourly congestion level

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.6048

SUP 1: $1.5940 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5803/20 Low 8 June, Base of the daily Bollinger band
SUP 3: $1.5721/70 High Dec 2008 & 50.0% of $1.44 advance, Low 28 Sept
SUP 4: $1.5688 38.2% of $1.3500 to $1.7041


USDJPY - TECHNICALS
Dollar-yen recovery is still only testing the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud at the moment with daily studies not at all convincing of a stronger recovery. Initial support is the daily Bollinger band base at Y89.00 but this level is not as strong for the yen crosses as elsewhere. Key topside level is at Y91.75 level, which was the major low seen in July and Fibonacci levels are Y91.94, Y93.05.

RES 4: Y92.53 Failure high 21 Sept
RES 3: Y91.75/94 Major low July, 38.2% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 2: Y91.30/50 21-DMA, Kijun line of Ichimoku cloud,
RES 1: Y90.45 Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud

CURRENT LEVEL: Y89.80

SUP 1: Y88.23 Low 25 Sep
SUP 2: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan
SUP 3: Y86.05 Monthly high June 1995
SUP 4: Y84.50 Monthly low July 1995


DAILY CALENDAR
A busy calendar starts at 0600GMT with he release of the IMF Global Financial Stability Report and also the German August ILO employment change.

The first of many speakers comes at 0645GMT, when ECB Vice-President Lucas Papademos, ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber and Riksbank Gov. Stefan Ingves participate in a discussion on implementation of de Larosiere regulation and supervision package at The Eurofi Financial Forum, in Goteborg.

European data continues with France PPI at 0645GMT, shortly followed at 0650GMT by the release of Q2 Maastricht debt data.

The main German September unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 8.4% at 0755GMT with Germany also seeing VDMA machine-tool orders at 0800GMT.

At 0830GMT, ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer participates in a discussion on prudential and governance rules to ensure effective financial stability? at The Eurofi Financial Forum, in Goteborg The BOE's Miles speaks in Belfast at 0900GMT, at the same time as the SNB publishes the latest Quarterly Bulletin.

EMU Sep flash HICP data is due at 0900GMT and is expected to come in at -0.2% y/y.

US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index.

At 1200GMT, Riksbank Deputy Gov. Lars Nyberg participates in a discussion on "Crisis management of cross-border institutions: how to leverage best practices?" at the event in Goteborg, while also in Scandinavia today, although the time is uncertain, Norges Bank Governor Svein Gjedrem is due to deliver a speech at a seminar by the Center for Monetary Economics in Oslo.

US data continues with the 1215GMT release of the ADP National Employment Report, which is followed at 1230GMT by the third release of Q2 GDP and the Chain Price Index.

Second quarter GDP is expected to be revised to -1.2% in third reading for the quarter. The chain price index is expected to be revised to remain flat.

NY NAPM data is due at 1300GMT, while at 1345GMT, the Chicago PMI is expected to increase to a reading of 52.0 in September. Other regional data already released have suggested continued expansion, though still at a slow pace.

Further data sees the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks at 1430GMT. Central bank speakers then continue through the afternoon and evening.

At 1430GMT, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart delivers a speech on the US economic outlook on the University of South Alabama in Mobile.

At 1630GMT, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet gives the keynote address during the event in Gotegorg.

At 1635GMT, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn appears on a panel at the Cato Institute's Shadow Open Market Committee meeting on central bank exit policies.

Finally, at 1830GMT, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo testifies to the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Security and International Trade and Commerce on international regulatory cooperation.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

Friday, September 25, 2009

NordMarkets Morning FX - September 25

MORNING FX
BRIEFING
Risk positions continued to be pared back into early Asian trade Friday, the overnight jump in the VIX, along with disappointing US housing data, reported to have kept the pressure on. Negative close on Wall street rolled over into Asian equity markets providing the dollar and yen an added boost in early trade. Sterling remained under pressure, triggered stops through $1.6000, Y146.00 and above stg0.9160 provided the impetus to take cable to lows of $1.5917 after further stops were triggered below $1.5985. Japanese margin houses were noted strong sellers of sterling-yen through the move. Euro-dollar was supported early on by the demand for euro-sterling, but as the cross stalled so pressure dropped the rate down to lows of $1.4614 before meeting reported French demand between $1.4620/00, prompting suggestions of sovereign interest. Dollar-yen pushed down to early lows of Y90.56 but strong gamma related demand between Y90.50/00 continues to cushion. Equities back in positive territory ease risk pressure into early Europe, aided by G20 comments on stimulus withdrawal.

EURO
Strong demand for euro-sterling in early Asian trade tempered dollar demand pressure on euro-dollar with the rate managing to hold around $1.4660 in early trade before the cross rise faltered. Model and hedge fund sales then took over to take rate to an initial low of $1.4622, a brief recovery to $1.4664 soon met renewed sell interest that took rate to session lows of $1.4614. French demand interest cushioned the move, with bid interest said to extend to $1.4600, with recovery off this low strengthened after stops were triggered above $1.4670, the rate edging to $1.4700 ahead of the European open. Rate settled into a $1.4675/95 range into the early Europe, currently around $1.4682. Offers remain in place at $1.4700, more toward $1.4720 with stops placed above. Bids remain between $1.4620/00 with stops below (suggestion area holds sovereign interest and draws front running demand with stops placed under the figure). A break to open potential for a move down to $1.4515 with area between $1.4560/45 to provide interim support.

YEN
Dollar-yen moved back up to a Y91.59 high in the NY session Thursday, closing back around opening Asian levels at Y91.35, while euro-yen ended at Y133.85. Yen pairs made brief highs into the overnight session before sterling-yen weakness triggered a move lower as stops were hit on the break of Y146.00. Models were euro-yen sellers as CTA stops were taken out, this pair slipping from Y133.86 and making a show under the Ichimoku Cloud base at Y132.86 as dollar-yen dropped back under Y90.80. Subsequent bounces were shallow, euro-yen topping at Y133.20 as dollar-yen stalled back around Y91.00, fresh lows then notched at Y90.56 and Y132.52 later in the session. Euro-yen did manage to bounce back to Y133.40 from here, while dollar-yen has struggled to get back above Y90.80. Traders say dollar-yen continues to be pulled between Japanese corporate repatriation into fiscal half-year end, exporter offers, barrier options and importer bids. Japanese bids noted under Y90.50, ahead of reported large barrier interest at Y90.00 with stops below the latter level.

EURUSD - TECHNICALS
The euro is still looking corrective having almost reached its 100% projection of the Q4 2008 rally and Sept 2008 peak at $1.4851/62. Risk is seen to $1.4533/40, which is the 21-day moving average and the former resistance from June 3. Initial resistance is at $1.4712/27, where the latter is the 50.0% of fall from 1.4844 to $1.4616.

USDYEN - TECHNICALS
Dollar-yen downside risks persist and break below Y90.12/21 seen extending weakness weakness to a projected 6-month channel base, which is now valued at Y89.48. Key topside level remains at Y91.75 level, which was the major low seen in July and failure to close above here is seen leaving bears in control.

GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
Sterling bears remain firmly in control following recent break below channel base from June 8 and confirmation of "Gravestone doji" candlestick pattern yesterday with long black body. Risk is now seen to $1.5721 -- the Dec 2008 high and 50% of April to August rally.

DAILY CALENDAR
Friday sees the second day of the Pittsburgh G20 summit, with leaders laying out their communique, the details of which are already seeping into the public domain.

The European calendar kicks off at 0600GMT, with the release of the July construction orders data. At 0610GMT, the October GfK consumer sentiment index is out.

French data is expected at 0645GMT, when September consumer sentiment hits screens, followed at 0650GMT with the released of the detailed Q2 GDP data. This is followed at 0700GMT with the release of Spanish August PPI data.

The calendar continues at 0715GMT, when ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch is slated to speak at the Capital Market Forum, in Luxembourg. Norges Bank Governor Svein Gjedrem gives speech, in Oslo, although no time is slated.

At 0800GMT, ECB Aug M3 data is released, along with Italian July retail sales data

UK August car production data is expected around 0800GMT.

The only other item on the UK calendar is Q2 Total Business Investment, due out at 0830GMT.

SNB Board member Thomas Jordan to speak at the Capital Market Forum, in Luxembourg AT 0900GMT.

The US calendar starts at 1230GMT, with the release o Aug durable goods orders. Durables new orders are expected to rise only 1.0% in August after the revised 5.1% surge in July. Boeing reported 32 aircraft orders in August, down from 44 in July.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is due at 1355GMT and is expected to be unrevised at a reading of 70.2 in late-September

At 1430GMT, US August New Home Sales data is released. New home sales are expected to rise to a 445,000 annual rate in August after the 9.6% jump in July. As with existing home sales, new home sales have shown indications of improvement in recent months, although the latest existing home sales were a surprise on the downside.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

Thursday, September 24, 2009

NordMarkets Morning FX - September 24

MORNING FX

BRIEFING
The FOMC left rates unchanged, as widely expected, keeping policy accommodative with a mild upgrade to its economic assessment. One bank notes that the FOMC made a slight change by saying they will purchase "a total" of $1.25tln agency-MBS. In previous statements officials said they would buy "up to" $1.25tln in agency-MBS. Reversal off post FOMC high of $1.4845 saw rate ease to lows of $1.4728 into the close with early Asia continuing the demand for dollars, as system and macro accounts stopped themselves out. Euro-dollar eased to $1.4685, as dollar-yen pushed up to highs of Y91.63, with cable, Aussie and Kiwi tracking the early euro-dollar move. Move was short lived as Asian sovereign dollar supply emerged to take euro-dollar up to $1.4754. Rally met model supply that countered, then reversed the move as euro-yen came under pressure from Japanese investment house sales, with model supply also noted as market moved to risk aversion as Asian regional equity markets turned negative. Nikkei was positive but seen catching up after the three day gap. Ifo and G20 today's focus.

EURO
Euro-dollar rallied to $1.4845 post FOMC only to meet strong Asian sovereign supply, with the reversal back to $1.4728 seen as US stock markets turned from positive to negative. System and macro supply continued into early, pre-Tokyo, trade with sales taking rate on to extended lows of $1.4685. Rate reversed off lows, with Asian sovereign demand providing a lift to $1.4740 ahead of a short squeeze on to $1.4754 before model funds began to provide stronger supply, the rate easing to $1.4710 before edging back to $1.4730 into early European dealing. Offers seen placed between $1.4737/43 (61.8%/76.4% $1.4754/1.4710) a break above to allow for a move back to $1.4754. Offers noted to $1.4760 with stops above, which if triggered to take rate on to $1.4780/85 ahead of $1.4800/10. Demand noted back at $1.4710/00 (61.8%/76.4% $1.4685/1.4754). Asian traders report that an Asian sovereign was a noted buyer of euro-dollar, Aussie and sterling off lows, book balancing with Bank a noted buyer of dollars Wednesday. Other Asian sovereigns also noted showing demand interest into Europe.

YEN
Dollar-yen closed the US session mid-range around Y91.32 after notching highs at Y91.55 in the wake of the FOMC announcement, while euro-yen ended around Y134.55. Early Asian dealing saw the highs extended to Y91.63 in dollar-yen before an about-turn as a Japanese investment house stepped in to sell at and after the Tokyo fix. Euro-yen had also hit early highs at Y134.69 before a major US name sold the cross down, stops triggered through Y134.00 over the Tokyo lunch break, with the rate slipping to session lows at Y133.58 and struggling to bounce through the Asian afternoon. Dollar-yen meanwhile found a base at Y90.77 and remains heavy into European dealing. Japanese demand still said to reside around Y90.50, with significant barrier protection still rumoured into Y90.00. Exporter offers are back around Y91.80. Euro-yen trading back within the Ichimoku Cloud, the base of which is seen as key support now at Y132.86.

EURUSD - TECHNICALS
The euro has almost reached its 100% projection of the Q4 2008 rally and Sept 2008 peak at $1.4851/62, and now favours correction back to $1.4613/38, which is the 21-day moving average and the former resistance from June 3. The daily studies are already beginning to turn lower, with stochastics now bearishly crossed.

RES 4: $1.4982 2.0% moving average envelope
RES 3: $1.4968 Major high Nov 2007
RES 2: $1.4906/08 Daily Bollinger band top, High Aug 22 2008
RES 1: $1.4851/62 100% projection of the Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep

SUP 1: $1.4747 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.4611 Low 21 Sep
SUP 3: $1.4517/33 Low 14 Sept, Former resistance line from 3 June
SUP 4: $1.4500 21-day moving average


USDYEN - TECHNICALS
Dollar-yen is still unable to close above the Y91.75 level, which was the major low seen in July and failure to close above here is seen leaving focus on the downside to a projected 6-month channel base, which is now valued at Y89.52. Initial support is at Y90.12/21.

RES 4: Y94.74 200-day moving average
RES 3: Y93.96 50% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 2: Y93.06 38.2% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 1: Y92.27/55 21-day moving average, 76.4% of Y93.29-Y90.15

SUP 1: Y90.71 76.4% of Y90.15 to Y92.53
SUP 2: Y90.12/21 Lows Sept 11, 14, 16
SUP 3: Y89.60/67 Proj channel base, 50% proj of the Aug/Dec downmove
SUP 4: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan



GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
Cable is holding above the 5-day moving average at $1.6310 and whilst this underpins, the risk remains on short-covering as the hourly studies continue to point higher from oversold territory. Whilst the "gravestone" doji yesterday candlestick yesterday is a worry, the hammer reversal candlestick Mon and strong white candlestick Tues is bullish.

RES 4: $1.6740 High 11 Sep
RES 3: $1.6665 Resistance line from July 2008 high
RES 2: $1.6437/54 50.0% of $1.6740 to $1.6134, High 18 Sept
RES 1: $1.6387 21-day moving average

SUP 1: $1.6264 High 21 Sept
SUP 2: $1.6100/15 Base of the dly Bollinger band, Dbl-low from early Sep
SUP 3: $1.6033 Low 13 July
SUP 4: $1.5986 Low 8 July


DAILY CALENDAR
It is a light data day in Europe Thursday, although there are speakers slated on the Continent and in the UK.

At 0700GMT, Bundesbank Vice-President Franz-Christoph Zeitler speaks on how banking regulation should change, in Frankfurt

The only data of note is the 0800GMT release of the Germany September IFO business sentiment index.

At 0830GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck hold press conference ahead of the G20 summit, in Berlin. The summit starts in Pittsburgh USA later today.

The US has a full calendar of data and speakers to sit alongside the opening of the G20 summit.

At 1230GMT, the Jobless Claims data for the Sep 19 week is due. Claims are expected to rise 5,000 to 550,000 in the September 19 week.

At 1330GMT, US Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Stability Herbert Allison testifies before Senate Banking Committee on the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act in Washington.

At 1400GMT, Existing home sales data is released. Sales are expected to rise to a 5.35 million annual rate in August after jumping 7.2% in July. Homes sales remain very weak relative to a year ago, but a clear upward trend appears to be emerging.

Back to data at 1430GMT, with the release of EIA Natural Gas Stocks. Also at 1430GMT, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans speaks on asset price exuberance and macroprudential regulation at the opening of the bank's International Banking Conference in Chicago.

At 1500GMT, Kansas City Fed Production data for September is released.

Back in Europe, at 1600GMT, France August newly registered jobseekers data is out.

Back to the speakers, and at 1700GMT, Christina Romer, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, delivers keynote the address to the Chicago Fed's International Banking Conference in Chicago.

Also at 1700GMT, Bundesbank President Axel Weber is slated to speak on "The Future of Banking Regulation" in Frankfurt, while ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark gives a speech on "The Language of Money", in Berlin

The day closes out at 2030GMT, when US 14-Sep Money Supply (M2) is released. However, there is likely to be a drip-feed of unscheduled comments from G20 delegates throughout the day.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

NordMarkets Morning FX - September 23

MORNING FX
BRIEFING
Kiwi again took centre stage overnight as the release of stronger than forecast GDP data took Kiwi-dollar from around $0.7190 to $0.7315. Market took advantage of continued Tokyo holiday thinned conditions, targeting stops in euro-yen through Y134.50 that dragged dollar-yen through its stops level at Y90.50 but strong demand emerged below to contain move at Y90.48, the rate then recovering back to settle around Y90.70. Euro-yen recovered off its early lows of Y134.09 as euro-dollar took direction from the Kiwi move, the rate pushing through Tuesday's high at $1.4822 to extend recent gains to $1.4843. Cable also moved higher, initially meeting stiff resistance ahead of $1.6400 before it finally gave way and allowed rate to edge on to $1.6415. Aussie also tracked Kiwi higher, though trailed in its wake, allowing in turn Aussie-Kiwi to drop 140 points to NZ$1.2010 before recovering late on to NZ$2060. Focus this morning on flash PMI data from France, Germany and eurozone, BOE Minutes, with the later release of the FOMC decision hovering in the background.

EURO
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.4790, initially marking session lows at $1.4784 before bouncing back as rate took its cue again from the Kiwi, as this latter currency gained a further boost on the release of stronger than forecast GDP (action similar to Tuesday after release of NZ current account data and a boost in milk prices). Euro-dollar pushed through Tuesday'#s highs at $1.4822, tripping stops above $1.4825 to take it on to highs of $1.4843. Move met decent supply from an Asian sovereign name, with residual interest said to remain between $1.4835/40, the rate then easing back to $1.4785 before recovering again, meeting resistance around $1.4820 (61.8% $1.4843/1.4784) before settling between $1.4800/20 into early European dealing. Rate currently trades around $1.4810. Bids seen placed to $1.4800, a break to allow for a deeper pullback toward $1.4785/80 ahead of $1.4770 (NY low $1.4769). Talk of demand dotted from this latter level down to $1.4755 with stops placed on a break below. Offers seen at $1.4835/40, more toward $1.4850.

YEN
After slipping to a Y90.94 low in the US session, dollar-yen closed around Y91.10, while euro-yen ended steady around Y134.80. Continued absence of Tokyo market led to thin liquidity into the Asian session, stops hit in dollar-yen through Y90.90 and Y90.75 as the break of 76.00 in the dollar-index led to talk of model and system accounts having to sell. Euro-yen also saw an early stop-loss run to the downside, dropping to Y134.09 and moving back into the Ichimoku Cloud in the process. Talk of standing Japanese bids in the Y90.50/45 area limited the fall to Y90.47 in dollar-yen, the rate subsequently recovering back to Y90.90 as the cross bounced back to Y134.60. Balance of the Asian session was well contained after the initial flurry of activity, dollar-yen holding around Y90.70 into the European session as euro-yen sits at Y134.30. Reports of topside stops now through Y91.10, though focus remains on the downside amid reports of large Y90.00 barrier interest rolling off Monday and attracting significant bids ahead, tying in with last week's base at Y90.12.

EURUSD - TECHNICALS
On the euro-dollar techs, not much resistance noted until $1.4851/62, where the latter is the Sept 2008 high. Also noted is the daily Bollinger band top at $1.4906. However, this is a rising target and likely to climb as price action gains. M/t outlook remains constructive to $1.5163 -- 76.4% of $1.6039 to $1.2329 overall move.

RES 4: $1.4982 2.0% moving average envelope
RES 3: $1.4968 Major high Nov 2007
RES 2: $1.4906/08 Daily Bollinger band top, High Aug 22 2008
RES 1: $1.4851/62 100% projection of the Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep

SUP 1: $1.4747 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.4611 Low 21 Sep
SUP 3: $1.4517/33 Low 14 Sept, Former resistance line from 3 June
SUP 4: $1.4500 21-day moving average



USDYEN - TECHNICALS
The dollar remains under pressure against the yen having failed to close above Y91.75 -- the major low seen in July and now puts focus back on the projected 6-month channel base, which is now valued at Y89.56. Support is now at Y90.12/321 recent lows. Initial resistance at Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud at Y91.33.

RES 4: Y94.74 200-day moving average
RES 3: Y93.96 50% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 2: Y93.06 38.2% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 1: Y92.27/55 21-day moving average, 76.4% of Y93.29-Y90.15

SUP 1: Y90.71 76.4% of Y90.15 to Y92.53
SUP 2: Y90.12/21 Lows Sept 11, 14, 16
SUP 3: Y89.60/67 Proj channel base, 50% proj of the Aug/Dec downmove
SUP 4: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan



GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
A potential hammer reversal candlestick noted Monday and strong white candlestick yesterday, which implies risk of a reversal higher for cable. Initial resistance is at $1.6437 -- 50.0% of $1.6740 to $1.6134 move and break favours trend resistance line at $1.6654. Support is at the 5-day moving average at $1.6341.

RES 4: $1.6740 High 11 Sep
RES 3: $1.6665 Resistance line from July 2008 high
RES 2: $1.6437/54 50.0% of $1.6740 to $1.6134, High 18 Sept
RES 1: $1.6387 21-day moving average

SUP 1: $1.6264 High 21 Sept
SUP 2: $1.6100/15 Base of the dly Bollinger band, Dbl-low from early Sep
SUP 3: $1.6033 Low 13 July
SUP 4: $1.5986 Low 8 July



DAILY CALENDAR
The biggest item on the calendar Monday comes late in the European day, with the Fed's FOMC announcing the outcome of its two-day policy meet.

Although no change is expected in either rates or current Fed policy actions, traders will be closely scrutinising the statement for renewed hints as to when the Fed will start withdrawing easy money.

The kremlinologists will be further dissecting the words, following comments last week from an East Coast advisory service, noting a couple of Fed members wanted to signal a sooner than currently anticipated end to the accommodative policies.

The European data calendar picks up after the slow session Tuesday, with the release of the flash manufacturing indices.

However, the day starts at 0645GMT, with the release of French Jul/Aug consumer spending. This is followed at 0650GMT, with the release of French manufacturing sentiment.

Flash manufacturing and service PMI releases start at 0657GMT with the French data, followed at 0727GMT with German data and at 0757GMT with the overall EMU flash numbers.

UK data is released at 0830GMT, with the August BBA Loans For House Purchase data. Also at 0830GMT, the Bank of England publishes minutes of September MPC meeting.

Further EMU data is released at 0900GMT, when EMU July industrial orders hit traders screens.

The US calendar kicks off at 1100GMT when the MBA Mortgage Application Index for the Sept 10 week is released.

Back in Europe, at 1200GMT, the Norges Bank announces monetary policy decision, followed at 1245GMT by its regular post decision press conference.

The Bank of England's MPC member Kate Barker speaks in Wales at 1210GMT.

At 1300GMT, the Belgian National Bank's Sept business sentiment survey is released

The US calendar continues at 1330GMT, when Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on financial regulatory reform in Washington.

At some stage, ahead of the UN General Council meeting, President Barack Obama meets with new Japan Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama in New York.

Data continues at 1400GMT, when August BLS Mass Layoffs data is out, followed at 1430GMT with the release of the EIA Crude Oil Stocks.

At 1815GMT, the FOMC policy decison and statement are released.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

NordMarkets Morning FX

MORNING FX

BRIEFING
A quiet Asian session to start the week with Japan closed Monday through Wednesday and several other centres closed for religious holidays. The only action of note was in sterling where the pound came under further pressure in early trade, stops below $1.6220 triggered to take it to $1.6212 before able to make a recovery to $1.6265 on reaction to stronger than expected Rightmove housing data. Release of BOE Quarterly Bulletin reversed the recovery attempt with rate falling under $1.6200 to $1.6185. Euro was buoyed by demand for euro-sterling, euro-dollar trade contained within a range of $1.4665/1.4713 though under pressure into early Europe on generally firmer dollar. Yen traded with a slight softer tone as equity markets eased, dollar-yen triggering stops above Y91.60 to take rate on to Y92.01. Very light data calendar for today, with main focus for the week on the FOMC statement Tuesday and G20 FinMin meeting Thursday/Friday. BOE Minutes from the Sep meeting are published Wednesday. Speeches from SNB Hildebrand and Jordan are set for Friday.

EURO
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.4685 and edged to session highs of $1.4713 in relatively subdued trade due to the holiday in Japan (closed through to Wednesday). Pressure on sterling provided the euro with some buoyancy, via demand for euro-sterling, but general dollar buys eventually weighed against further gains and saw rate pullback to $1.4680. Demand for euro-yen provided a lift back to $1.4706 but again rate met decent headwind selling above $1.4700 that saw rate drift lower through the balance of the session to $1.4665 into early Europe. Further sales have taken the rate to extended lows of $1.4655, but seen meeting decent demand interest in the area ahead of $1.4650, with talk emerging of stops below. Decent technical support noted down to $1.4640 expected to provide a cushion below, a break here to allow for a deeper move toward $1.4625/20 ahead of $1.4600. Offers seen placed between $1.4680/85 ahead of $1.4695/05, stronger toward $1.4720.

Elsewhere, speculative accounts increased their net euro long positions and pared their net yen long positions as per September 15, according to CFTC data released Friday. The net position in non-commercial futures (ex-options) showed that speculators increased their net euro long to +37,772 contracts from last week's net long of +18,033 contracts, the CFTC said. In the yen, as per Sept 15, speculative accounts had a net yen long of +37,107 contracts versus last week's net yen long of +40,799 contracts, which was the largest net long since February. Y Spec accounts have had a net euro long position since May 5 and maintained a net yen long since July 7. The euro closed at $1.4659 Sept 15, versus the levels seen late Friday near $1.4700. Dollar-yen closed at Y91.03 Sept 15 vs. Friday's closing levels near Y91.45.

YEN
Dollar-yen closed the week in NY around Y91.28, with euro-yen ending back around opening Asian levels at Y134.25. Traders reported a quiet Asian session Monday with Tokyo out until Wednesday, dollar-yen moving up from the Y91.30 area, while the cross found a base at Y134.20. Subsequent bounce was sufficient to push dollar-yen through Friday's Y91.55 high, though gains were initially capped ahead of Y91.60 as euro-yen topped out in the Y134.60 area. Majority of the Asian session was then subdued within the early ranges before a late spike in both pairs saw dollar-yen making a show above Y92.00 after stops were hit through Y91.65/80, as the cross moved towards Y135.00, so far stalling at Y134.97. Traders noting reports of stops now from various names on a break of Y135.10, system accounts in particular said to have left orders in that area. Techs meanwhile note the move back above the Ichimoku Cloud at Y134.84, a close above there today required for fresh upside momentum. Offers in dollar-yen are noted in the Y92.20/25 area, ahead of tech resistance at Y92.44 (21-day moving average).

EURUSD - TECHNICALS
Turning to the technical picture, initial resistance is still seen at $1.4768 as euro-dollar trades within the $1.4830 Bollinger band. Daily studies remain firm but are now well in overbought territory, highlighting the risks of a pullback.

RES 4: $1.4908 High Aug 22 2008
RES 3: $1.4851/62 100% projection of the Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep
RES 2: $1.4830 Current top of the daily Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.4768 High 17 Sep

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4687

SUP 1: $1.4648 Low 18 Sep
SUP 2: $1.4517/30 Low 14 Sept, Former resistance line from 3 June
SUP 3: $1.4447 August high
SUP 4: $1.4440 21-day moving average



USDYEN - TECHNICALS
Dollar-yen is trying to break back above the major low seen in July at Y91.75, helped by an upturn in momentum and the daily Stochastic study. Initial support is the 5-DMA at Y91.30. Euro-yen is focused on breaking above Ichimoku cloud top at Y135. Daily studies are mixed with the stochastic clearly bullish but momentum struggling to make ground.

RES 4: Y93.96 50% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 3: Y93.06 38.2% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 2: Y92.40/80 21-day moving average, Kijun line
RES 1: Y91.75 Major low July

CURRENT LEVEL: Y91.72

SUP 1: Y91.30/50 5-DMA & Tenkan line
SUP 2: Y90.12/21 Lows Sept 11, 14, 16
SUP 3: Y89.62/67 Proj channel base, 50% proj of the Aug/Dec downmove
SUP 4: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan



GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
Cable's recent head-&-shoulders break target has been filled, although studies remain weak keeping bears focused on channel base at $1.6182 and the $1.6115 double-low. Initial resistance is the 5-day moving average at $1.6380.

RES 4: $1.6822 76.4% of August pullback
RES 3: $1.6740 High 11 Sep
RES 2: $1.6672 Resistance line from July 2008 high
RES 1: $1.6380 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.6222

SUP 1: $1.6210 Hourly low
SUP 2: $1.6182 Channel base from June 8
SUP 3: $1.6115 Double-low from early Sep
SUP 4: $1.6080 Base of the daily Bollinger band



DAILY CALENDAR
European events for Monday start at 0700GMT, when ECB Executive Board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell is due to give the opening address at a conference on "Business Models in Banking: Is There A Best Practice?", in Milan.

0800GMT sees the Bundesbank publish it's latest Monthly Bulletin, while at 0900GMT, the ECB releases a survey on "Access to finance of small- and medium sized enterprises"

There is no major UK data remaining for Monday, but at 1005GMT, the Bank of England's Sentance speaks in London.

At 1100GMT, German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck, Chancellor Angela Merkel and former ECB chief economist Ottmar Issing are due to hold a press conference on financial market regulation proposals, in Berlin.

At 1215GMT, Riksbank Deputy Governor Lars Svensson is due to give a speech "Flexible inflation targeting and the crisis", at an event in Amsterdam.

US data starts at 1330GMT with the MNI Capital Goods Index, followed at 1400GMT by the leading indicators index, which is expected to rise 0.7% in August on positive contributions from slower vendor performance, rising stock prices, in increase in building permits, and rising consumer expectations. These were offset by negative contributions from the falling money supply and rising jobless claims.

At 1430GMT, the IMF releases analytic chapters of the annual Global Financial Stability Report, at the same time as the release of the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index.

At 1630GMT, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny participates in a panel discussion of "One Year After The Crisis", in Salzburg.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

Thursday, September 17, 2009

NordMarkets Morning FX

BRIEFING
European open: Euro opens the European session firm, euro-dollar placing reported resistance between $1.4685/1.4700 under early pressure, challenging freshly posted 2009 highs at $1.4686 (NY). Asian traders had noted Asian sovereign names linked to supply in this area, with a US money bank noted sitting ahead of a much publicized barrier at $1.4700. Euro-sterling provided a focus in Asia trade, the rate extending its recent recovery through a reported barrier at stg0.8900, to take it on to stg0.8918, with added buys into Europe extending the move to stg0.89305. This move reflecting the ongoing pressure on sterling, with cable struggling to take advantage of dollar pressure with market focusing on the downside while rate holds below $1.6510/15, a break and clear of $1.6400 suggested to target $1.6285. Aussie found decent demand interest on dips with focus set on resistance at $0.8700, Kiwi resistance at $0.7100. Dollar-yen was locked in a tight range around Y91.00. UK jobs data (0830GMT) and eurozone inflation (0900GMT) this morning's focus, US CPI at 1230GMT, IP and Cap.Ut. at 1315GMT later.

EURO
Euro-dollar pened Asia around $1.4665, off late NY recovery highs (fresh 2009 highs) at $1.4686 after rate had seen post retail sales lows of $1.4561. Rate marked lows at $1.4656 in early trade before model account buys from below $1.4670 took rate up to $1.4680. Move met decent Asian sovereign sales (several names noted) that eased rate back to $1.4662 but dip attracted willing buyers to take it back, marking session highs at $1.4684. Further sales from same names eased rate to $1.4667 only to meet renewed dip demand that was lifting the rate back into Europe, with added buys allowing rate to retest Tuesday's high at $1.4686. Pressure continues, currently seen chipping way at the reported resistance, said to extend toward an option barrier at $1.4700, a US money bank said to have offers placed ahead. Stops noted above the figure, which if triggered expected to open a move toward $1.4720. One Swiss name has suggested fading rallies into the area between $1.4720/50. Bids seen between $1.4660/50.

YEN
Dollar-yen breaks below overnight lows at Y90.78 as market reacts to new FinMin Fujii comments that he is opposed to FX intervention if forex moves are gradual, the rate extending its base through support at Y90.80/70 (overnight low Y90.78) to Y90.49. Rate had traded with an underlying soggy tone through the Asian session, the rate pivoting around Y91.00 in a relatively tight range of Y90.78/91.17. The recently reported barrier at Y90.00 seen in focus again though expect decent demand to emerge around Y90.50, stronger between Y90.20/00 (Y90.18 recent low). Euro-yen trade in Asia was contained within Y133.26/72, with moves dictated mainly by euro-dollar action. Rate has broken down to Y132.96 in early Europe following those reported Fujii comments, but continued euro-dollar demand seen tempering this react move. Euro-yen bids seen to Y132.80, a break to open a deeper move toward Y132.55/45. Offers Y133.70/80.

USDYEN - TECHNICALS
Dollar-yen downside risks persist following inability to break above the Tenkan line of the Ichiomoku cloud at Y91.75, which also coincides with major low seen in July. Whilst this caps the risk is on a revisit of the double-day low at Y90.18/21. The daily studies whilst o/sold, are still above previous reversal levels - Risk seen to Y89.79.

RES 4: Y95.31/33 Base of the Ichimoku cloud, 100-day moving average
RES 3: Y94.74 200-day moving average
RES 2: Y93.00 21-day moving average
RES 1: Y91.26/75 5-day moving average, Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud

SUP 1: Y90.76 61.8% of Y90.23 to Y91.63
SUP 2: Y90.18/21 Double-day low Sept 11, 14
SUP 3: Y89.67/79 50% proj of the Aug/Dec downmove, Proj channel base
SUP 4: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan


EURUSD - TECHNICALS
Euro-dollar bulls are seen sharpening horns for fresh assault on new yearly highs as the daily studies continue to point higher and 2.00% moving average envelope widens further and now valued at $1.4793. Initial resistance is seen at the daily Bollinger band top at $1.4699.

RES 4: $1.4851/62 100% projection of the Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep
RES 3: $1.4793 2.00% moving average envelope
RES 2: $1.4721 High 18 Dec
RES 1: $1.4699 Daily Bollinger band top

SUP 1: $1.4623 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.4517/20 Low 14 Sept, Former resistance line from 3 June
SUP 3: $1.4447 August high
SUP 4: $1.4388 21-day moving average


GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
Cable's sell-off triggered a break of neckline of head-&-shoulders pattern on hourly charts at $1.6545 -- targets measured move to $1.6303. In addition, price action has priced below the 21 & 55-day moving average's and next support seen at $1.6324/54. M/t risk is seen to $1.6168/95 -- channel base from June 8 and the 100-day moving average.

RES 4: $1.7044/52 High 5 August, November 2005 low
RES 3: $1.6822 76.4% of August pullback
RES 2: $1.6716 Resistance line from July 2008 high
RES 1: $1.6657 Hourly high

SUP 1: $1.6324/54 Low 4 Sept, 61.8% of $1.6116 to $1.6740
SUP 2: $1.6239 Minor low 3 Sep
SUP 3: $1.6168/95 Channel base from June 8, 100-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.6033 Low 13 July


DAILY CALENDAR
European data kicks off at 0700GMT, when Spain's Jul service sector data is released.

At 0730GMT, the Riksbank is scheduled to publish the minutes of Sept 2 monetary policy meeting, whilst EC Economic & Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia speaks at the Annual Eurostat conference, in Brussels

Back to Italy at 0800GMT, with the release of August's final CPI/HICP data.

At 0820GMT, ECB Executive Board member Jose Manuel Gonzlez-Pramo is slated to give a speech on "Reading the Present to Prepare the Future" at Eurostat Conference, in Brussels

In the UK, the monthly employment report is due at 0830GMT. August claimant count, Juky average earnings and the July ILO unemployment rate are all out. Analysts are looking for a further pick-up in August's claimant count by 25,000, leaving the claimant count rate at 5.0%, versus 4.9% in July. They are also looking for a further pick-up in the more closely watched ILO unemployment rate to 8.0% in July from 7.8% in June

Back in Europe, ast 0900GMT, the EMU August final CPI/HICP data is released. At the sa,e time, the German Retail Association (HDE) releases new retail sales forecasts, in Duesseldorf

US data kicks off at 1100GMT, the US MBA mortgage application index for the Sept 11 week is set for release.

The main release is at 1230GMT, when the August Consumer Price Index is released. Analysts expect August CPI to rise 0.4% as gasoline pump prices rebounded slightly. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.1%.

Also due at 1230GMT is the second quarter US current account data and Canada's July 2009 manufacturing survey.

This is followed at 1300GMT with the release of the July International Capital System data from teh Treasury. At 1315GMT, the Aug Industrial production, capacity utilization data are released.

Industrial production is expected to rise 0.7% in August after posting a 0.5% increase in July. The manufacturing sector may get another boost this month due to brisk auto sales. Factory payrolls fell 63,000 in the month, with auto production jobs down 15,000. The factory workweek held steady at 39.8 hours. The ISM production index rose to 61.9. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 69.0%.

Oil markets will be anticipating the usual inventories stocks at 1430GMT, when the Sept 11EIA Crude Oil Stocks is released.

Lastly, at 1700GMT, the Sept Housing Market Index (NAHB) is released.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

NordMarkets Morning FX

MORNING FX
BRIEFING
European open; Release of stronger than forecast UK RICS housing data (+10.4% vs expected 0.0%) gave sterling a boost, the demand taking cable back above $1.6600, from its opening level around $1.6578, to session highs of $1.6629. Sterling remains firm into early Europe though some suggest this could be tempered ahead of UK inflation data release at 0830GMT, while others point to the report in the FT that legislation to force UK banks to draw up 'living wills' could also weigh if other countries don't follow suit. The move in sterling gave risk on trades an early lift, euro-yen tripping stops through Y133.10 took this rate to Y133.34, in turn moving euro-dollar back to $1.4647 (NY $1.4654) before meeting headwind Asian sales. Dollar-yen attempted to track euro-yen higher but was met by CTA and short term model sales, reversing in line with euro-yen on life co. sales, though pension fund demand cushioned the move lower. RBA Minutes seen balanced, in a 'wait and watch' mode. UK inflation data t 0830GMT, followed by Germany ZEW at 0900GMT the morning's focus ahead of US PPI and key retail sales at 1230GMT.

EURO
Opened Asia around $1.4627, off NY highs of $1.4654, and initially edged up to post session highs at $1.4647, as rate tracked cable's push higher on the back of the release of stronger than expected UK RICS data, with the break above Y133.10 in euro-yen also aiding the early move. Reports of Asian sellers placed above $1.4650 discouraged further upside progress, with talk of Asian sovereign book balancing sales also providing supply. Rate sank back to $1.4604 as euro-yen was squeezed off its early highs by life company sales. Euro-dollar drifted higher through the balance of the session, edging back to $1.4634 ahead of the European open, currently trading around $1.4632. Offers remain in place between $1.4650/60, a break above to open a move toward $1.4700 with offers ahead of this level suggested to begin from around $1.4685, with interim interest noted at $1.4672 (1.618% swing of $1.4647/04). Bids remain in place toward $1.4600.

YEN
Correction of yen longs continued into early Asian trade Tuesday, the early triggering of stops through Y133.10, from an opening level around Y132.80, providing the impetus to take euro-yen to early highs of Y133.30. The move dragged dollar-yen through Monday's high at Y91.14, triggering stops at Y91.20 to take it on to Y91.23, but rally met decent headwind resistance from CTA and short term model supply. Euro-yen reversed on Japanese life company sales to Y132.88, though move down was tempered by reported buys from a Japanese pension fund, along with importer interest, the rate recovering back ahead of the European open to Y133.34. Dollar-yen eased back, finding support ahead of Y91.00 in Asia, with early Europe seen probing for stops below the figure. Dollar-yen demand seen in place toward Y90.80/70, a break to allow for a deeper move toward Y90.50. Resistance remains in place above Y91.20 through to Y91.30 with reported stops above. If stops triggered expected to meet further sell interest placed between Y91.40/50, with talk of further sell interest dotted toward Y92.00

USDYEN - TECHNICALS
Dollar-yen downside so far arrested at potential double-day low reversal at Y90.18/21, but downside risks remain whilst below Y91.30/75 -- 5-day moving average and Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud. The dly studies whilst o/sold, are still well above extreme levels of reversal - thus imply plenty of downside scope. Risk seen to Y89.81 proj channel.

RES 4: Y95.31/33 Base of the Ichimoku cloud, 100-day moving average
RES 3: Y94.75 200-day moving average
RES 2: Y93.17 21-day moving average
RES 1: Y91.53/75 5-day moving average, Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud

SUP 1: Y90.18/21 Double-day low Sept 11, 14
SUP 2: Y89.67/81 50% proj of the Aug/Dec downmove, Proj channel base
SUP 3: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan
SUP 4: Y86.05 Monthly high June 1995




EURUSD - TECHNICALS
Euro has hit fresh 2009 highs against the dollar and has broken decisively above $1.4622 -- 61.8% retracement of the 2008 decline. The "shooting star" candlestick on Friday has been negated and very little resistance seen until $1.4708/47, where the former is the 2.00% moving average envelope and latter the spike high on Dec 18. Daily studies are bullish.

RES 4: $1.4968 Major high Nov 2007
RES 3: $1.4908 High Aug 22 2008
RES 2: $1.4851/62 100% projection of the Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep
RES 1: $1.4708/21 2.00% moving average envelope, High 18 Dec

SUP 1: $1.4565 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.4504 Low 10 Sept
SUP 3: $1.4447 August high
SUP 4: $1.4332 21-day moving average




GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
Cable suffered a minor test of a 9-day support line yesterday, but risks remains skewed lower following failure at $1.6742 and the potential "shooting star" candlestick formation on Friday. The $1.6742 was also the June top and failure to break above here perhaps puts attention back on channel base from early June at $1.6163.

RES 4: $1.7116 50% projection of April/June advance from July base
RES 3: $1.7044/52 High 5 August, November 2005 low
RES 2: $1.6822 76.4% of August pullback
RES 1: $1.6706/16 Daily Bollinger band top, Res line from July 2008 high

SUP 1: $1.6501/33 38.2% of $1.6115 to $1.6740, Support line fm 2 Sept
SUP 2: $1.6414/29 21-day moving average, 50.0% of $1.6117 to $1.6740
SUP 3: $1.6324 Low 4 Sept
SUP 4: $1.6239 Minor low 3 Sep





EURYEN - TECHNICALS
Euro-yen has suffered a minor test of the daily Bollinger band base at Y131.57 before recovering. However, downside risks persist following break of uptrend from Jan 21 on Friday. Overall, the cross remains below 1-month channel top at Y133.81 and whilst below here, the risk is on weakness towards the 200-DMA & channel base at Y128.58.

RES 4: Y136.08 High 24 August
RES 3: Y134.85 Kijun line of Ichimoku cloud
RES 2: Y133.81/83 Resistance line from 10 Aug, High 11 Sept
RES 1: Y133.12 Ichimoku cloud base

SUP 1: Y131.08/57 Low 2 Sept, Daily Bollinger band base
SUP 2: Y129.05 200-day moving average
SUP 3: Y128.58 Projected channel base from Aug 10 high
SUP 4: Y127.01/03 Low 18 May, 8 July


DAILY CALENDAR
European data kicks off at 0600GMT, with the release of the ACEA Jul/Aug new car registrations

French data is next up. At 0645GMT, the France Aug HICP, CPI data is released, followed at 0650GMT by the France Jul current account balance.

At 0700GMT, German Economics Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, German Industry Association (BDI) managing director, Werner Schnappauf, German Association of Industry and export conference, are slated to speak in Berlin

The calendar continues at 0830GMT, with the release of German Wholesale and Export Association (BGA) releases new wholesale forecasts, in Berlin

The UK calendar kicks off at 0830GMT, with the release of the August CPI data. Annual CPI inflation should fall further below the BoE target for the third consecutive month in August before bottoming out in September. Utility bills are likely to play a key in role in pushing down on prices in August given the rise in gas and electricity bills this time last year will begin to drop out of the annual measure. This favourable base effect should continue in September. The market is looking for a 0.3% m/m rise, up 1.4% y/y in the CPI reading.

At 0845GMT BOE Governor King, along with Dep Governor Bean and MPC members Barker, Dale, Miles are in Parliament at TSC hearing, to be quizzed on the August Inflation reports. Taking centre stage will likley be the decision of King, Besley and Miles to vote for increased QE in August, and the reasons the other MPC members voted them down.

The calendar continues at 0830GMT, with the release of German Wholesale and Export Association (BGA) releases new wholesale forecasts, in Berlin

At 0900GMT, EMU 2Q labour cost data is released, along with the much-watched Germany Sep ZEW. The market is looking for a ZEW read of 60.0, up from 56.1 in August.

Also due Tuesday morning is the annual statement on the eurozone economy from the European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs.

The US calendar kicks off early, with the release of the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales for the Sept 12 week.

Bundesbank board member Hans-Helmut Kotz speak at conference in Berlin speaks at 1200GMT

The US calendar kicks off early, with the release of the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales for the Sept 12 week. The main US data is due at 1230gmt, with the release of the August Producer Price Index, Retail & Food Sales data and the NY Fed Empire State Survey.

Also due at 1230GMT is the Canadian new motor vehicle sales for July. At 1255GMT, the US Redbook Average for the September 12 week is released.

Back in Canada, at 1330GMT, Bank of Canada Deputy Gov. John Murray is scheduled to give a speech on the crisis and Canada's near-term prospects in Berlin.

The US calendar continues at 1400GMT, when Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke gives a speech on the year of crisis to the Brookings Institution in Washington.

At 1400GMT, the US Business Inventories data for July is released. Alsoa t 1400GMT, the World Bank releases its 2010 World Development Report

Back in Europe, at 1500GMT, the ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark gives a speech on "Monetary and fiscal policy: criteria and timing for the phasing out of crisis measures", in Berlin

The US calendar ends at 2100GMT, with the release of the ABC News Survey for the week ending Sept 13.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

Sunday, September 13, 2009

GBPUSD

Next turn, we'll more discuss about GBPUSD Pair :) (After ramadhan, of course!)

Thursday, September 10, 2009

After Ramadhan

I'll see you guys after RAMADHAN


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