Monday, November 15, 2010

RBS To Sell GBP 3.8 Bln Finance Assets To Bank Of Tokyo-Mitsubishi

(RTTNews) - U.K.- based lender Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBS.L: News ,RBS: News ) said Monday that it has signed a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding or MoU with Japan's Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. for the proposed sale of a non-core Project Finance assets. The sale price is not revealed.
According to RBS, the portfolio to be acquired comprises loans worth about GBP 3.8 billion or US$6.1 billion in aggregate and mainly consists of natural resources, power and other infrastructure assets in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Africa or EMEA, Asia Pacific or APAC and the Middle East. The transaction is said to mark the first major sale of oil and gas financing assets since the financial crisis.
RBS and the U.K. government, which owns 84% of the lender, were in talks with Mitsubishi UFJ and RBS has been asked by the government to sell off non-core operations to pay back public funds after receiving 45.5 billion pounds of government funding during the global financial crisis. The bank has one of the world's largest project financing operations, with strength in lending to railroad, energy and other infrastructure projects in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd, or BTMU, a subsidiary of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MTU: News ) also said today that it has reached agreement with RBS on key terms for the proposed acquisition.
BTMU noted that the proposed acquisition, including the transfer of certain employees, will significantly strengthen its project finance business in EMEA and will assist it in achieving its aim of becoming one of the leading project finance banks globally.
The proposed sale is subject to the signing of a legally binding sale and purchase agreement as well as subsequent receipt of required regulatory approvals. The banks are expected to sign the agreement by year end.

Separately, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial said today that its net income for the first half ended Sept. 30 more than doubled to 356.7 billion yen or about US$4.3 billion from 140.9 billion yen in the previous year. The Tokyo-based company also boosted its full-year profit target to 500 billion yen from 400 billion yen.
Earlier this month, Royal Bank Of Scotland had posted a narrower net loss for the third quarter, reflecting mainly lower impairment losses and improved performance in Retail & Commercial businesses. Looking ahead, the company said its fourth-quarter market environment remains challenging. RBS closed Friday's regular trading at $13.48 on the NYSE. RBS.L is currently trading at 41.75 pence, up 0.73 pence or 1.78%, on a volume of 14.18 million shares. MTU ended on Friday at $4.7 on the NYSE.

Monday, November 8, 2010

The growth of new hopes

The employment report for October and the national manufacturing survey released last week, surprised the financial situation even further. When a string of negative economic readings required to notify the Bank of Queen Elizabeth II, these data showed that the rate of recovery is still intact. Already price pressures do not exist, has experienced accelerated growth.
The Federal Reserve is really also inform the quantitative easing, roughly in line with what the market had expected. The FOMC has launched an active program to purchase and related gradual pace and duration of purchases to changing economic conditions and achieve the dual mandate of promoting full employment and price stability. The central bank said it would buy 600 billion U.S. Treasury securities in the long term in June or the rate of $ U.S. 75 billion dollars a month. The Fed also said to regularly review the pace and scope of the purchasing program in light of information received. At its meeting in September, the Fed said the pace of recovery in output and employment is still slow.
According to Danske Banken risk of downward adjustment in the total purchase amount exceeds the increase, given that core inflation is close to the floor, and the labor market is gradually improving in the coming months. However, the Fed has invited the wrath of other nations, because he believes that the growth of liquidity of the dollar would lead to a deterioration of the dollar and appreciation of their currencies.

In a pleasant surprise, the U.S. Farm earnings report shows more than expected increase of 151,000 jobs in the payroll. payroll for the previous two months'was revised to show a net upward revision of 110,000 jobs. While gains were widespread labor, manufacturing has lost jobs. The private sector added 159,000 jobs, the biggest increase in six months. As expected, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.6%.
U.S. consumer spending rose 0.2% month by month in September, against expectations of 0.4%. Actual expenditures, adjusted for inflation, rose just 0.1%. Meanwhile, personal income fell 0.1%, 0.4% increase in translation in August. Mainly due to lower drop of 18% of unemployment insurance benefits, which expired. Personal savings fell for a third consecutive month decreased by 5.3%. Year after year the number of core index of consumer prices in personal spending slowed to 1.2% in September from 1.3% in August.
Impetus to the manufacturing sector should continue. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing purchasing managers '\' index rose to 56.9 in October, 54.4 in September, and was the highest since May. The index of new orders rose 7.8 points to 58.9, while its backlog of orders index fell to 0, 5 points 46 Employment rose by 1.1 points 57.7. The index of export orders showed an increase from 6 points 60.5.
Service sector activity is still pretty strong, the department's non-manufacturing index rose to 54.3 in October from 53.2 in September. The new orders index rose 1.8 points to 56.7 and the employment index climbed 5.6 points to 58.4, while the employment index rose 0.7 points to 50.9. The unfilled orders index climbed to'50'levels, ranging from48 to 52 last month.
A report released by the Commerce Department showed that construction spending rose 0.5% month-on-month in September, defying expectations for a 0.7% decline. However, many of bounce offset by a downward revision from the previous month's reading. The increase in September was due to a 1.8% jump in private nonresidential construction. Government spending also showed resilience, rising 1.3%.
However, the report found the house last week softness. The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales report fell 1.8% month-on-month in September.
As expected, gave the American midterm congressional elections and gubernatorial elections, Republicans an edge, if he has a majority in the House of Representatives, and their tally in the Senate, although Democrats managed to retain a narrow majority.
The unfolding week's economic calendar is fairly light, with the jobless claims and the Reuters / University of Michigan's consumer confidence report from the economic reports of significance. The Commerce Department's trade balance report for September, the Labor Department's import and export prices report for October, the Commerce Department's wholesale inventories report for September and the results of the Treasury auction round out the other financial events the week.

The U.S. trade deficit is expected to be a modest narrow in September as import growth has slowed after a surge in the previous three months. Import growth is likely to take a hit from a relatively weaker U.S. dollar and lower inventory investment costs. In the third quarter, the market pulled over 2 percentage points of growth.
Consumer confidence in the week may see a small bounce, with economists expecting Reuters / University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October to rise slightly from last month's level. The expected upside is largely based on the strong stock market rally witnessed for most of October.

Monday
Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh is due to the SIFMA Conference in New York to speak at 3:30 pm ET.

Tuesday
The Commerce Department is due to wholesale inventories report at 10 pm ET Fri. Economists expect wholesale store by the end of September show an increase of 0.6%.

In August, wholesale 0.5% month-on-month, resulting in an annual growth of 12.4%. Both durable and non-durable goods sales grew by 0.5% each on a monthly basis. But wholesale inventories increased 0.8%, increasing the annual rate to 0.6%. Inventories to sales fell to 1.16 from 1.24 last month.

Wednesday
The trade gap data for September are due at 8:30 ET. Economists estimate that the trade gap fell to $ 46200000000 in Mon The trade measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services.
The value of imports grew much faster than the value of exports in August rose in the month the trade deficit by more than economists had expected.
The trade deficit rose to $ 46300000000 in August from a revised $ 42600000000 in July. Economists had expected the deficit to $ 44500000000 $ 42800000000 to extend the originally reported for the previous month.
Labor Department is due to regular jobless claims report for the week ending on November 6 at 8:30 ET release. Economists expect a drop in claims to 450,000.
After three months reported a low for the first time applications for unemployment benefits last week, jobless claims rose modestly in the week ended 30. Initial jobless claims rose to 457,000 last week's revised figure 437,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to edge up to 445,000 of the 434,000 originally reported for the previous week
The export and import price index for October, reflecting changes in the prices of non-military goods and services traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world gives, will end at 8:30 ET.
In September import price index declined 0.3% in September after a 0.6% increase over the previous month. The decrease was mainly attributable to a 3.1% fall in prices of fuel imports, but the decrease was partially offset by an increase of 0.3% in non-fuel import prices.
Meanwhile, export prices in September at a slower pace of 0.6% compared with an increase of 0.8% in August. The rise in agricultural export prices fell to 2.4% from 4.1% and non-agricultural export prices rose 0.3%.
The Treasury of the budget, a monthly account surplus or deficit of the federal government will be released at 2 PM ET. The budget is considered an indicator of budgetary trends and the fiscal stance should be. Economists estimate a deficit of $ 140.000.000.000 in October.
The Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its weekly petroleum inventory report for the week ending November 5 at 10:30 ET.
Crude oil stocks rose by 2 million barrels to 368.2 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 29. Stocks are still above the upper limit of the average range.
Gasoline inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels, but they are above the upper limit of the average range. Distillate stocks also fell, dropping by 3.6 million barrels. Refinery capacity utilization averaged 81.8% over the four weeks ended Oct. 29 compared with 83.7% the previous week.

Thursday
No major economic reports released on Thursday following a government holiday.

Friday
The preliminary report from Reuters / University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey for November will be released at 9:55 ET. The consumer mood index is expected to increase from september's 67.7 to 69

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Forum Baru Untuk Trader Indonesia

FORUM FOREX INDONESIA

Thursday, October 14, 2010

- Whats up

i'm coming,,,

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Exit Long & Short untuk kisaran 100pips ++

Hidden BRD (pake stoch)

Friday, July 30, 2010

Exit Short dan Long mencari profit sedang :-)

Silahkan dipelajari ya,, :-)

TdB,, Exit Long Entry Short

Ini adalah lanjutan gambar sebelumnya, mudah-mudahan semakin memperjelas bagaimana teknik Trading by Divergence,,, . Pada tahap ini saya perlihatkan gambar exit dari Long (Buy) yang sudah kita lakukan pada post sebelumnya,, Ini adalah Exit Buy (Long),, sekaligus Enry Sell (Short)

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

T-b-D (Entry)

Sekarang kita bahas kapan waktu yang tepat buat entry. Saya posting gambar dulu, mudah2an teman-teman bisa mencoba mengerti dan memahaminya,,, (kalo buat yang lama mestinya dah tahu).

Friday, July 23, 2010

Trading by divergence -1

Bahasan berikutnya kita bahas indikator yang digunakan,


TF H4, Seperti gambar di atas ita bisa lihat indikator yang digunakan adalah MACD (12,26,7), stochastik (standar 5,3,3), dan untuk lebih mempermudah saya gunakan indikator tambahan FX Divergence :-), MACD dan Stoch sebenarnya yang paling umum digunakan untuk mengetahui terjadinya divergence :-)


TF H1, Seperti gambar di atas, adalah untuk mencari posisi entry dan exit yang tepat, Entry dan exit bisa di lakukan pada saat terjadi divergence di TF H4, namun presisi entry dilihat pada TF H1. Penjelasan entry dan exit akan diberikan pada bahasan berikutnya :-)
Pada TF H1, kita gunakan William's Percent Range (%R 14) dan Relative Strength Index (RSI 10), dan Ichimoku kita gunakan untuk mendeteksi kebenaran trend yang terjadi.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Trading by divergence

Ingin mencoba share cara trading yang profitable kalau kita tidak terburu nafsu dan mengikuti semua rules yang telah ditetapkan,,, Untuk informasi awal saya akan menampilkan gambarnya dulu,, berikut indikator-indikator yang digunakan,,


  1. Bagi chart anda menjadi 2 bagian seperti gambar di atas
  2. Sebelah kiri adalah TF H4, dan sebelah kanan adalah TF H1, TF H4 digunakan sebagai dasar untuk mencari divergence yang terjadi, kenapa menggunakan H4? Karena menurut sebagian besar trader yang berpengalaman dan menurut saya pribadi, di TF H4 adalah TF yang sangat jarang terjadi false signal, false break out,, etc.. :)
  3. Chart sebelah kanan adalah Chart H1,, chart untuk konfirmasi entry dan exit area :-)  
Penjelasan Indikator2 yang digunakan di posting berikutnya ya,,, soalnya dah jam 23:02,, ngantuk #-o

Monday, June 7, 2010

EURUSD Hits New 4 Year Lows

Briefing
The euro plunged to fresh 4-year lows against the dollar in Asian trade Monday and a fresh 8-1/2 year low against the yen, as ongoing concern over sovereign budgets continued to weigh. Euro-dollar slumped to a low at $1.1876 - a level below its first official closing level in January 1999, traders noted. However, short-covering helped the pair off the lows, touching $1.1938 ahead of the European open.

Euro-yen plunged to Y108.06, before rallying to Y109.12 ahead of Europe. The cross rally helped pull dollar-yen off session lows of 90.97, with the pair last at Y90.30 in early Europe. Sterling was little changed against the dollar, at $1.4440, as cable rallied off early lows at $1.4401, but made further ground against the weakened euro, with euro-sterling easing to stg0.82405, currently around stg0.8260.

The Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg Monday followed by the Economic and Financial affairs Council Tuesday. New Zealand is expected to hike 25bps Wednesday. BOE and ECB expected to keep rates on hold Thursday. Germany manufacturing orders are also due today, at 1000GMT.

Euro
Euro-dollar closed in NY around $1.1965 with traders noting the first print into Asia was at $1.1935 as stops below $1.1950 were targeted and triggered (NY low $1.1955). Rate consolidated for a short while between $1.1920/65 before coming under further pressure from strong sales out of Tokyo of euro-yen, prompted by the knock on effect of Wall Street's negative close on Asian equities. Rate dropped through $1/1900 to post initial lows at $1.1882, recovering to $1.1920/25 before another round of selling took it down to session/fresh 4-year lows of $1.1876.

Negative news articles over the weekend weighed on the euro, Der Spiegel article suggesting German Constitutional Court considering imposing an interim order against Germany's participation in the EU/IMF rescue effort, as well as the Telegraph suggesting 'the euro will be dead in 5-years'.Euro-dollar managed to recover post Tokyo fix, euro-yen failing to take out a Y108.00 barrier then bouncing, pushing back up to $1.1935/40 before settling between $1.1910/40 into early Europe. Strong demand noted at $1.1860/50 ($1.1850 barrier). Offers $1.1940/55.

RES 4: $1.2355 High 1 June
RES 3: $1.2340 21-day moving average
RES 2: $1.2145 Lows 18, 19 May
RES 1: $1.2100/10 5-day moving average, Breakout level

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.1901

SUP 1: $1.1880 200-month moving average
SUP 2: $1.1869 Support line 22 Dec
SUP 3: $1.1835 Minor channel base
SUP 4: $1.1825 Daily low 28 Feb


Yen
Dollar-yen continues on a soft footing in the earlier far east markets falling from a high of Y92.10 before a sharp sell off to Y90.97.Resistance now lies at the 100 MA coming in at Y91.50 and support at Y90.55 and then bids at Y90.10-20. Most of this has been cross related selling partly on the back of remarks in the UK's Sunday Telegraph that the euro could be 'dead within 5 years' with euro-jpy hitting Y108.06 in an attempt to trigger the Y108.00 barrier option before profit taking brought the cross back up to Y108.85-90.

Overall, the pair looks heavy with the November 2001 lows potentially coming into the picture at Y107.70 and Y106.88 on a break of the Y108 barrier. Japan's DPJ Noda has stated desire to set a path for fiscal reform but will not comment on euro levels. The Nikkei fell 380 pints to 9520 following the Friday fall in the US adding to the stronger overall yen move.

RES 4: Y93.56/63 Fibonacci level, High 13 May
RES 3: Y93.35 Top of the Ichimoku cloud
RES 2: Y92.60 55-day moving average
RES 1: Y91.80 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: Y91.37

SUP 1: Y91.00 Tenkan line
SUP 2: Y90.90 200-day moving average
SUP 3: Y90.56 Low 1 June
SUP 4: Y90.17 Support line 6 May


Cable
Opened Asia around $1.4440 and bounced between $1.4401/45 for most of the overnight session, taking direction from euro-dollar moves though held within a tighter range as euro-sterling extended its recent push lower to stg0.82405. Cable managed to break out on the topside to $1.4460 late Asia, dropped to $1.4430 into the European session before resting the late Asian session highs.

Rate currently trades around $1.4430. Resistance remains in place at $1.4460, a break to open a move on toward $1.4490, with offers noted from here and extending toward $1.4505. Support remains toward $1.4400, a break to expose stronger demand interest placed around $1.4370. BOE MPC interest rate decision Thursday, no change expected. UK releases the Inflation Attitudes Survey on Friday followed by the Quarterly Bulletin Sunday.

RES 4: $1.4878 50% of Apr/May range
RES 3: $1.4835 Top of the daily Bollinger band
RES 2: $1.4771 High 2 June
RES 1: $1.4550/65 5, 21-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4438

SUP 1: $1.4338 Minor support line
SUP 2: $1.4260 Low 25 May
SUP 3: $1.4234 Low 20 May
SUP 4: $1.4210 Base of the daily Bollinger band 


Forex Analysis and Trading: Effective Top-Down Strategies Combining Fundamental, Position, and Technical Analyses (Bloomberg Professional)How to Master Forex TradingHow to Use Relative Strength Analysis in Forex TradingCurrency Trading and Intermarket Analysis: How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets (Wiley Trading) 

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Month End USD Demand Emerged - US and UK Markets Open Today

Briefing
Widely reported dollar buying did emerge at Monday's end month fixings, despite holiday thinned markets. Aussie saw the main pressure, with dollar demand also noted vs the euro, sterling and Cad.

The dollar pared gains through the North American session with risk aversion demand for dollars and yen emerging again into Asia. Markets reacted to the ECB Financial Stability Report which suggested that eurozone banks would suffer 'considerable' loan losses in 2010 and 2011.

Strong sales of cross yen led the moves, a 'fat finger' sell trade in the Nikkei adding to the weight. Euro-dollar filled reported demand at $1.2260, allowing rate to extend losses to $1.2245. Aussie lost 100 pts in early trade as it dropped to $0.8354, the move down aided by China's release of PMI data, seen suggesting some slowing. RBA left rates unchanged, as widely expected, adding that rates remain appropriate in the near term, allowing for some recovery.

BOC rate decision due at 1300GMT with market widely forecasting a hike of 25bps after Monday's release of strong GDP. Rates off lows into early Europe.

Euro
Opened in Asia around $1.2300, the rate having pivoted this level through Monday's holiday thinned trading. Rate posed an early session high at $1.2308 before coming under pressure, led by strong sales of cross yen, with traders reacting to release of the ECB Financial stability Report suggesting eurozone banks will suffer 'considerable' loan losses in 2010 and 2011, which could amount to E195bln in write downs. Weaker than expected China PMI and a sudden drop in the Nikkei (fat finger trade blamed) saw rate ease to challenge Monday's low at $1.2265, the break below $1.2260 tripping stops that took it to lows of $1.2245.

French bank buying emerged into the dip to help rate recover back above $1.2260, edging on to $1.2280 at writing. Support remains at $1.2245/35, an Asian sovereign suggested to have interest here, Stops $1.2230, a break to expose $1.2205/00. Resistance $1.2290/00, stops $1.2305/10, ahead of minor resistance at $1.2320/25, with stronger interest noted between $1.2330/35. Eurozone PMI releases due today, along with German employment data.

RES 4: $1.2929/50 50% of 12 April decline, High 7 May
RES 3: $1.2731/35 61.8% of 10 May, 38.2% of 12 April declines
RES 2: $1.2673 High 21 May
RES 1: $1.2490 21-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.2263

SUP 1: $1.2135/45 50% of post-launch range, Low 19 May
SUP 2: $1.2050 Base of the daily Bollinger band
SUP 3: $1.2035 Lows April 2006
SUP 4: $1.1942/48 Low 14 Mar, 2006, Support line 22 Dec


Yen
Opened in early Europe around Y91.13 and Y111.78 Another quiet session overnight for dollar-yen trading in a Y90.88-Y91.28 range. The pair were sold off early in the session as continued worries over events in the Eurozone weighed and selling interest emerged in cross-yen markets. Euro-yen was sold from Y112.23 down to Y111.32 as many different accounts looked to short the cross. However decent buying interest around Y111.25 area helped the euro-yen find a base and the cross rallied back to Y112.20 level.

These moves were mirrored in dollar-yen with the pair trading down to Y90.88 marginally below yesterdays low, however with the demand in cross-yen and technical support being provided by the 200 dma at Y90.95 area the pair bounced modestly to open in Europe around Y91.13 level.

RES 4: Y92.65 Top of Ichimoku cloud
RES 3: Y92.50 55-day moving average
RES 2: Y91.85 Fibonacci level 21-day moving average
RES 1: Y91.45 Base of Ichimoku Cloud, 100-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: Y91.05

SUP 1: Y90.95 200-day moving average
SUP 2: Y90.85 5-day moving average
SUP 3: Y89.77 Support line 6 May
SUP 4: Y89.10 Base of the Bollinger band


Cable
Opened Asia at $1.4530 and initially edged up to mark session highs at $1.4542 before reversing on strong cross yen led sales. Rate eased to a low of $1.4470. Rate settled between $1.4470/95 before edging higher ahead of the European open, the rate pushing back up to $1.4530/35 before slipping back but remaining buoyed above $1.4500.

A break below the figure to open a deeper pullback toward $1.4485/80 ahead of $1.4460/50. Resistance remains at $1.4530/35 ahead of $1.4550. UK CIPS PMI due at 0828GMT.

RES 4: $1.5030/55 61.8% of Apr/May range, High 10 May
RES 3: $1.4878 50% of Apr/May range
RES 2: $1.4726/41 38.2% of Apr/May range, 61.8% of 10/19 May decline
RES 1: $1.4625 21-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4477

SUP 1: $1.4260 Low 25 May
SUP 2: $1.4234 Low 19 May
SUP 3: $1.4160 Current base of the daily Bollinger band
SUP 4: $1.4131 100% projection of May decline

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Rolling Back on Risk Positions in Asia

Briefing
The dollar was mixed in the Asian session, marking modest gains versus the euro and other major currencies but unchanged against the yen, as market players in the region rolled back on risk positions, having earlier favoured risk appetite after Wall Street's late recovery.

Euro-yen fell from an early high near Y111.95 to a low of Y110.50, as those early risk positions were reduced. The cross opens into Europe around Y110.80.

Euro-dollar was last at $1.2280, at the low end of a $1.2271 to $1.2389 range.

Dollar-yen tracked other yen crosses lower after opening with modest gains. The pair briefly perked up to a Y90.51 high before sell orders pushed it down, slipping to a low at Y90.00 but was last trading about unchanged, around Y90.20. We are now picking up talk of decent demand interest placed in the area between Y90.15/00, with an Asian reserve manager mentioned.

Fed Bernanke comments were highlighted for the risk aversion overnight, traders reacting to him saying that he doesn't want to provide dollar-swaps on permanent basis. General dollar demand again lifted Asian pairs with the BOK again noted intervening to sell dollars. Equity markets remain in focus, with end of month positioning becoming more influential.

Euro
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.2345, the late recovery rally on Wall Street enabling the rate to push higher into the close from intraday lows of $1.2177. Rate moved above the NY high of $1.2353 and punched on to an early extended high of $1.2388 on the early risk appetite. However, early Tokyo quickly reversed this sentiment, selling into euro-yen's recovery. Rate retraced lower, with reported comments from Fed's Bernanke that he doesn't want to provide dollar swaps on a permanent basis, providing the added weight to take rate down to session lows of $1.2271. Rate recovered to $1.2310, as Asian equity markets edged higher.

Rate was slipping back into early Europe, trading back to $1.2275 before market reacted to comments from OECD Chief Economist that the euro has been overvalued for too long (Le Figaro), taking it down to $1.2263. Rate currently trades around $1.2276. Bids reported at $1.2260/50, a break to open a deeper move toward $1.2225/20. Resistance $1.2290/00 ahead of $1.2320/25.

RES 4: $1.2929/50 50% of 12 April decline, High 7 May
RES 3: $1.2731/35 61.8% of 10 May, 38.2% of 12 April declines
RES 2: $1.2715 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.2673 High 21 May

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.2304

SUP 1: $1.2177 Low 25 May
SUP 2: $1.2135 50% of post-launch range
SUP 3: $1.2035/49 Lows April, Support line 22 Dec
SUP 4: $1.2000 Base of the daily Bollinger band


Yen
Recovery on Wall Street prompted risk appetite into the NY afternoon, with this tone continuing into early Asia before Tokyo opened to counter the move. Strong sales of yen crosses by Japanese exporters and retail accounts (Japanese insurance companies were noted heavy euro sellers, looking to move away from the currency) took euro-yen from early extended highs of Y111.95 to session lows of Y110.50, the move dragging dollar-yen from its early highs of Y90.51 to Y90.00. Euro-yen recovered to Y111.25, as rate tracked Asian equity recovery only to drop back again to Y110.55 ahead of the European open. Rate recovered to Y111.05 into Europe only to ease again to Y110.70.

Rate currently trades around Y110.75. Asian sovereign demand interest between Y90.15/00 helps to buoy this rate into early Europe, the rate having recovered off overnight lows to Y90.35, currently trading around Y90.20. A break of Y90.00 to open a deeper move toward Y89.80/70. Resistance Y90.50, Y90.65/75.

RES 4: Y92.55 Top of Ichimoku cloud
RES 3: Y92.35/45 21, 55-day moving average
RES 2: Y91.45/50 Base of Ichimoku Cloud, 100-day moving average
RES 1: Y91.10 200-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: Y90.25

SUP 1: Y89.10 Base of the Bollinger band
SUP 2: Y88.95 Low 20 May
SUP 3: Y88.33 Minor support line
SUP 4: Y87.95 Former low


Cable
Opened Asia close to NY recovery highs of $1.4410 ($1.4407) with early buying extending the risk-on rally to $1.4449. Resistance at $1.4450 able to counter the move with rate then reversing as Tokyo sold yen crosses at their open. Reversal gained pace as risk aversion came to the fore as market reacted to comments from Fed Bernanke that he doesn't want to provide dollar-swaps on a permanent basis. Cable squeezed down to initial lows of $1.4365, recovering to $1.4390/95 before slipping back to post session lows at $1.4356 ahead of the European open.

Further sales into the session extended lows to $1.4350, bouncing back to $1.4400/05. Rate currently trades around $1.4398. Support remains in place to $1.4350, a break of $1.4340 to allow for a deeper move toward $1.4310/00. Resistance $1.4405/15 ahead of $1.4430 with stronger interest toward $1.4450, more behind at $1.4465.

RES 4: $1.4765 21-day moving average
RES 3: $1.4726/41 38.2% & 61.8% retracements
RES 2: $1.4645 50% of 10/19 May decline
RES 1: $1.4548 38.2% retracement of 10/19 May decline

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4385

SUP 1: $1.4260 Low 25 May
SUP 2: $1.4234 Low 19 May
SUP 3: $1.4131 100% projection of May decline
SUP 4: $1.4080 Current base of the daily Bollinger band

Friday, May 14, 2010

Light Euro Calendar Today - Volume Returns Somewhat After Ascension Day

Briefing
The dollar was narrowly mixed in Asian trade Friday, stuck in tight ranges amid light volumes. Dollar-yen was last at Y92.90, at the upper end of the Y92.51 to Y92.95 range, with offers seen at Y93.00 from exporters capping further gains initially.

Euro-dollar was also higher in thin trade, trading up to $1.2659, the upper end of its $1.2516/59 range, still holding off the much reported option barriers at $1.2500, dropping back to $1.2640 into early Europe.

Cable recovered off early lows of $1.4584, pushing to a high of $1.4640 ahead of the European open, only to drop back to retest the earlier lows into Europe. Kiwi traded with a soft tone through the overnight session, easing from $0.7153 to $0.7110 as market reacted to release of weaker than forecast retail sales data.

Light data calendar through the European morning with US retail sales at 1230GMT ahead of Cap.Ut./IP at 1315GMT the afternoon focus. Equity market performance to continue providing direction.

Euro
The euro recovery to $1.2559 through the Asian session, from early lows of $1.2516, has quickly reversed into early Europe as rate drops back to $1.2518 but meeting strong demand from reported bids placed below $1.2520 and said to extend toward $1.2500, linked to protection of decent sized barriers at the figure ($1.25/1.31 May 31).

Stops are said to have built up below the figure, which if triggered to expose another barrier at $1.2475. If we see a break of $1.2500 expect some profit take buying to emerge to soak up triggered stops on the initial move, as well as further protective demand ahead of the next mentioned barrier interest. Resistance remains in place at $1.2560

RES 4: $1.3100/15 High 10 May, 50% of $1.3692 decline, Low 28 Apr
RES 3: $1.3065 21-day moving average
RES 2: $1.2950 High 7 May
RES 1: $1.2620 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.2543

SUP 1: $1.2515 Low 6 May
SUP 2: $1.2459 Recovery low 4 March
SUP 3: $1.2390 Current base of the declining Bollinger band
SUP 4: $1.2329 Lows Oct 2008


Yen
Opened in early Europe around Y92.95 and Y116.54 Dollar-yen dipped to Y92.51 in early Asian trade as some early risk aversion impacted the pair. The sell off in cross-yen weighed on the pair and general dollar buying saw dollar-yen rally back to Y92.95. Traders had noted some spec accounts buying near the lows. Offers ahead of Y93.00 have capped throughout the Asian session and saw the pair dip to Y92.66 in early European trade. Japanese names were noted on the offer around Y92.90.

Traders note the daily Ichimoku upper cloud line is providing support coming in at Y92.67 Friday, a close below this level would be seen as negative. Euro-yen had a mixed session overnight trading sub Y116.00 to Y115.93 early on taking out some weak longs before testing lower once again to Y115.88. Bids ahead of Y115.80 level kept the cross underpinned and euro-yen recovered to Y116.70 area where Japanese names were noted sellers once again.

RES 4: Y95.25 Resistance line from 7 Jan
RES 3: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug, 61.8% retracement of 2009 decline
RES 2: Y94.97 High 4, 5 May
RES 1: Y93.25/54 21-day moving average, High 10 May

CURRENT LEVEL: Y92.91

SUP 1: Y92.20/45 55-day moving average & Top of Ichimoku cloud
SUP 2: Y91.45/55 Tenkan & Base of Ichimoku cloud, 100-day moving average
SUP 3: Y91.20 200-day moving average
SUP 4: Y88.22 Spike low


Cable
Opened Asia around $1.4605, off NY lows of $1.4593, with rate coming under early pressure that eased it to session lows of $1.4572. Recovery into positive territory for Asian equities prompted some risk appetite, with rate edging higher through the balance of the session to $1.4640 ahead of the European open. Sterling came under stronger sell pressure into early European dealing, the rate dropping back to retest the overnight lows, breaking below before basing around $1.4553. Rate recovered to $1.4610, the correction only offering better sell levels with supply taking rate back to $1.4565/60.

Rate currently trades around $1.4570. Support seen to $1.4550, a break to open a deeper move toward $1.4520 ahead of $1.4500 with stronger support noted at the recent lows of $1.4475. Resistance now seen at $1.4610/20, more toward $1.4650. Wednesday's dovish BOE Inflation Report continues to weigh on the pound.

RES 4: $1.5140 21-day moving average
RES 3: $1.5122/26 61.8% retracement of Apr/May decline, Low 28 Apr
RES 2: $1.5055 High 10 May
RES 1: $1.4775 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4626

SUP 1: $1.4575 Current base of the Bollinger band
SUP 2: $1.4487 61.8% projection
SUP 3: $1.4475 Low 7 May
SUP 4: $1.4336 76.4% of 2009/10 range


Forex Patterns & Probabilities: Trading Strategies for Trending & Range-Bound Markets (Wiley Trading) 
Beat the Forex Dealer: An insider's look into trading today's foreign exchange market (Wiley Trading) 
The FX Bootcamp Guide to Strategic and Tactical Forex Trading (Wiley Trading) 
How to Make a Living Trading Foreign Exchange: A Guaranteed Income for Life (Wiley Trading) 
Survive And Prosper In The Great Depression Of 2009-2012: A Step-By-Step Guide To Amassing A Fortune Trading Foreign Currencies 

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Dollar Trading Mixed Overnight

Briefing
The dollar traded with a mixed tone in the Asian session, easing against the euro but little changed against the yen. Traders mentioned a lot of strikes in the Y93.00/20 area which helped to contain the rate within Y93.07/29.

Euro-dollar was last pressing up against the overnight highs at $1.2669, up from $1.2613 Asia lows. Euro-dollar offers are now said to be above $1.2685, while bids remain in place on approach to $1.2600, with stops building on a break below there.

Dollar-yen is currently trading at Y93.20, with reported stops above Y93.30 intact.

Sterling trades close to session highs of $1.4869 vs the dollar, with cable last at $1.4865.

The Aussie was the star performer overnight, the currency getting a boost from better than expected jobs data (employment up 33.7k in April, though the unemployment rate edged to 5.4% from 5.3%).

Ascension Day holiday has some European centres closed and expected to weigh on the already low liquidity. Fairly light data calendar, UK trade at 0830GMT, with US import/export prices due at 1230GMT. Fed speakers later in focus. Equity markets seen directional.

Euro
Euro-dollar opened Asia around session lows of $1.2611, the rate having come under strong sell pressure late in the NY session as rate sunk to $1.2616. Strong demand placed ahead of $1.2600 contained the move and allowed rate to recover, the move up meeting Swiss name supply around $1.2640 but able to push on to trigger stops above $1.2650 that lifted rate on, in steps, to an eventual session high of $1.2669 ahead of the european open.

Continued buying into Europe has taken rate up to $1.2682, with rate seen meeting reported offers placed around the $1.2685 level. A move above this area expected to meet stronger sell interest placed toward $1.2700. Demand remains in place to $1.2600 with stops said to be building below. Further demand then noted at $1.2580 with more stops on a break.

RES 4: $1.3120 21-day moving average
RES 3: $1.3100/15 High 10 May, 50% of $1.3692 decline, Low 28 Apr
RES 2: $1.2950 High 7 May
RES 1: $1.2670 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.2660

SUP 1: $1.2515 Low 6 May
SUP 2: $1.2480 Current base of the declining Bollinger band
SUP 3: $1.2459 Recovery low 4 March
SUP 4: $1.2329 Lows Oct 2008


Yen
The yen opened in early Europe around Y93.22 and Y118.01 vs the euro. Another very quiet session fro dollar-yen overnight, confined to a Y93.07-Y93.29 range. Offers between Y93.30-Y93.50 still capped in Asia although the pair tested higher in early European trade taking out some of the selling interest and printing a high at Y93.46. A quiet session for the crosses too, remaining slightly bid as equity markets faired slightly better.

Euro-yen traded Y117.58-Y118.10 again testing higher in early European trade, traders note some offers Y118.50-Y118.70 with chatter of stops beyond here. One trader observes that the market is still wary of any news from the Euro region and concerns remain over contagion despite the EMU/IMF stability fund. Bids are said to start around Y117.90 with more around Y117.50 and Y117.20

RES 4: Y95.24 Resistance line from 7 Jan
RES 3: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug, 61.8% retracement of 2009 decline
RES 2: Y94.97 High 4, 5 May
RES 1: Y93.25/54 21-day moving average, High 10 May

CURRENT LEVEL: Y93.22

SUP 1: Y92.20/45 55-day moving average & Top of Ichimoku cloud
SUP 2: Y91.45/55 Tenkan & Base of Ichimoku cloud, 100-day moving average
SUP 3: Y91.20 200-day moving average
SUP 4: Y88.22 Spike low


Cable
Opened Asia around $1.4830, off NY lows of $1.4819, seen after the pound was sold off following the release of the dovish BOE IR. Rate initially dipped to mark session lows at $1.4815 before reversing higher in tandem with euro-dollar as Asian equities pushed into positive territory. Rate edged to a session high of $1.4869 ahead of the European open, with early Europe taking the rate on to $1.4885. Rate currently trades around $1.4875.

A move above $1.4885 to allow rate to edge on toward $1.4900/05, with stops noted on a break of $1.4910 which if triggered targets $1.4930 (50% $1.5046/1.4815). Support seen at $1.4850 ahead of $1.4835/30 and the overnight low at $1.4815. UK trade data due at 0830GMT the morning's highlight but Wednesday's dovish BOE Inflation Report still weighs on the pound.

RES 4: $1.5316 Resistance line 19 Jan
RES 3: $1.5190 21-day moving average
RES 2: $1.5122/26 61.8% retracement of Apr/May decline, Low 28 Apr
RES 1: $1.5055 High 10 May

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4857

SUP 1: $1.4712 Low 6 May, Base of the Bollinger band
SUP 2: $1.4487 61.8% projection
SUP 3: $1.4475 Low 7 May
SUP 4: $1.4336 76.4% of 2009/10 range

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Euro Starts The Day Under Pressure - Cable Gains a Buoyant Tone When Cameron Takes His Seat as PM

Briefing
The dollar and yen edged higher in early Asia as equities reversed early gains and the euro continued to loose ground after its recent rally.

Euro-dollar started the day under pressure again, driving the pair off a $1.2668 high, despite dealers noting fairly light orders. The pair hit an early low of $1.2616 as funds continued to sell the euro on rallies, while bids from around $1.2600/590 contained the downside. The pair saw a brief bounce to $1.2640, before retesting the session lows, extending the base to $1.2605.

Dollar-yen saw a fairly choppy morning session within a relatively tight trading range between Y92.50/95, reflecting modest 2-way flows with most trade cross yen driven.

Sterling eased in tandem with the other majors, the initial euphoria over a Con-LibDem coalition taking cable to NY highs of $1.5005 before attention was turned to how the new UK government will handle the UK deficit, with the EU suggested to be unwilling to aid the UK if it gets into crisis.

UK trade data at 0830GMT, EZ GDP at 0900GMT and the Bank of England Inflation report at 0930GMT provide the morning's focus. US trade data is also due, at 1230GMT.

Euro
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.2663 with the rate coming under early pressure, as margin houses sold this pair along with dollar-yen and euro-yen as they reacted to the after-hours stop-driven dip in the S&P. Triggered stops on break of $1.2650 provided added weight to take rate down to $1.2615. The dip attracted short term model buyers that allowed rate to recover back to session highs of $1.2668 before faltering in the face of a euro-yen reversal prompted by the negative turnaround in Asian equities. Rate dropped back to $1.2620, edging back to $1.2650 before another wave of selling ahead of the European open took rate to lows of $1.2606. Asian sovereign demand is said to have cushioned the move lower with recovery to $1.2645/50 into early Europe aided by mid east demand. Rate currently trades around $1.2632.

Underlying tone remains bearish for euro but traders warn that the large short positions being held could leave the market open to sharp corrective spikes. Bids remain in place to $1.2600, stops on break of $1.2590. Resistance $1.2665/70, stops above. One trader notes that Asian sovereign demand is now seen placed from $1.2610 through to $1.2580, adding that there is option interest centred on the $1.2600 level, while another adds that stops are seen placed on a break of the figure. Some of the demand reportedly linked to today's German 2-yr note auction (E7bln). Above the offers at $1.2665/70 and stops above, traders seen layered offers from $1.2680 through to $1.2710.

RES 4: $1.3165 21-day moving average
RES 3: $1.3100/15 High 10 May, 50% of $1.3692 decline, Low 28 Apr
RES 2: $1.2950 High 7 May
RES 1: $1.2705 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.2624

SUP 1: $1.2530 Current base of the declining Bollinger band
SUP 2: $1.2515 Low 6 May
SUP 3: $1.2459 Recovery low 4 March
SUP 4: $1.2329 Lows Oct 2008


Yen
The yen opened in early Europe around Y92.51 and Y116.62 vs the euro. Another quiet session for dollar-yen overnight, trading a Y92.44-Y92.94 range in Asia. Early dollar-yen sales saw the pair down to the low as margin houses liquidated long positions after equity markets came under pressure. Cross-yen remained weak for much of the session trading down to Y116.67 initially as stops sub Y116.80 were triggered, then Y116.57 later in the session again as more risk aversion saw longs liquidated.

Traders report euro-yen is the cross of choice at the moment for the intraday jobbing community and note that some stops for these accounts are placed sub Y116.50 level. Traders also note stops in dollar-yen placed sub Y92.20 with bids between Y92.30-40 offers ahead of Y93.50.

RES 4: Y95.22 Resistance line from 7 Jan
RES 3: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug, 61.8% retracement of 2009 decline
RES 2: Y94.97 High 4, 5 May
RES 1: Y93.25/54 21-day moving average, High 10 May

CURRENT LEVEL: Y92.51

SUP 1: Y92.10/25 5 & 55-day moving average & Top of Ichimoku cloud
SUP 2: Y91.45/55 Tenkan & Base of Ichimoku cloud, 100-day moving average
SUP 3: Y91.20 200-day moving average
SUP 4: Y88.22 Spike low


Cable
Cable put in a bullish session Tuesday, which combines with a bull-cross in the stochastic study and an upturn in momentum to offer hopes of recovery for the bulls. However, this still risks being a "dead-cat bounce" as the market struggles to hold atop initial support at $1.4860 from the 5-day moving average, while the base of the daily Bollinger band, which is also declining is currently at $1.4760. Bulls need to quickly turn attention back to the $1.5055 high and Fibonacci levels from $1.5122.

Euro-sterling studies remain near the lows and still seek recovery, but this comes as the market rejected the 21-day moving average and reasserted the declining channel, which has dominated the trend since early March. The base of this 'channel' comes in at stg0.8408.

RES 4: $1.5330 Resistance line 19 Jan
RES 3: $1.5220 21-day moving average
RES 2: $1.5122/26 61.8% retracement of Apr/May decline, Low 28 Apr
RES 1: $1.5055 High 10 May

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4864

SUP 1: $1.4712 Low 6 May
SUP 2: $1.4487 61.8% projection
SUP 3: $1.4475 Low 7 May
SUP 4: $1.4336 76.4% of 2009/10 range

Monday, May 10, 2010

Risk Plays Are Back - Euro Makes Heavy Gains

Briefing
The euro is trading higher into early European dealing Monday, rallying as the EU puts a rescue package in place for eurozone economies. In Asia, the euro initially rallied against the dollar, failed and fell to $1.2808 on news of possible QE from the ECB, before rallying hard to $1.2968 highs.

The euro-yen cross marked an early high of Y119.97 before pulling back to Y118.00 where it then rallied again, this time clearing Y120.00 for a Y120.10 high in late morning trade. Dollar-yen meanwhile was carried higher by the rise in yen crosses, ending the morning around Y92.60, after a Y91.71 to Y92.91 range, and up from Y91.27, where it had ended in the U.S. Friday.

Cable was higher, but gains were capped by the ongoing impasse over the election fallout. Cable was last at $1.4866, having traded to a session high of $1.4907 before pulling back to $1.4855/50.

Developments/fallout from the weekend package will be in focus during the day. Germany trade/current account data at 0600GMT, France IP 0645GMT ahead of the postponed BOE rate announcement at 1100GMT the morning's highlights.

In interest rate markets, June Bunds have opened down 116 ticks as risk-aversion trades are unwound after the European Union finance minister's E720 billion deal. In addition, the European Central Bank would intervene in the government bond markets in a bid to shore up the Eurozone and stop market attacks on heavily-indebted members of the currency club.

In equities, Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Monday's session sharply higher. The Nikkei 225 ended the day higher by 166.11 points, or 1.60%, to stand at 10530.70. The broader-based TOPIX was 12.90 points higher at 944.64.

Spreadbetters are calling European bourse levels higher. Cantor Index last calling the FSTE up 117, the DAX up 175 and the CAC up 159.



Euro
Euro-dollar opened early Asia around $1.2885, the rate marked up from Friday's close of $1.2740 as markets adjusted for the weekend debt package worked out by the EU/IMF. Order books were described as heavy with offers with rate quickly dropping back to $1.2800. Rumours of E500bln stabilization package, along with headline of ECB to announce intervention in markets saw rate spike up to $1.2950 where it ran into willing sellers.

Rate eased to $1.2880 as the EU press conference began. Mentioned intervention in debt markets, not FX, saw rate come under pressure, the rate dropping back to $1.2790, with the result in Germany NRW providing a knock for Chancellor Merkel as she loses her majority in the upper house, also adding weight. Asian reserve manager buys provided the demand to lift rate back to $1.2950, with eventual break taking rate on to $1.2968. Rate eased back to $1.2900 into early Europe before picking up fresh demand that has lifted the rate on to $1.2978. Offers seen placed between $1.2990/00, a break to open a move toward $1.3040/50. Support $1.2900, ahead of $1.2860/50.

RES 4: $1.3365 High 30 Apr
RES 3: $1.3270 21-day moving average
RES 2: $1.3115 Low 28 Apr
RES 1: $1.3041 Fibonacci retracement

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.2927

SUP 1: $1.2700 Bollinger band
SUP 2: $1.2515 Low 6 May
SUP 3: $1.2459 Recovery low 4 March
SUP 4: $1.2329 Lows Oct 2008


Yen
The sharp moves in dollar-yen have left the daily studies mixed with a bear-cross in the slow-stochastic study but momentum turning off lows. The pair has recovered the Ichimoku cloud, which now turns support from Y91.90.

Euro-yen remains well below the base of the Ichimoku cloud despite the recovery and attempt for the daily studies to recover. If bulls can maintain a bounce, the main Fibonacci levels include Y120.21 and Y121.22.

RES 4: Y95.19 Resistance line from 7 Jan
RES 3: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug, 61.8% retracement of 2009 decline
RES 2: Y93.25 21-day moving average
RES 1: Y92.70 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: Y92.62

SUP 1: Y91.90 55-day moving average & Top of Ichimoku cloud
SUP 2: Y91.50 100-day moving average
SUP 3: Y91.35 Base of Ichimoku cloud
SUP 4: Y88.22 Spike low


Cable
Opened Asia around $1.4855 from the NY close at $1.4818 and tracked euro-dollar's initial corrective pullback to $1.4764. Rate bounced back to session highs of $1.4907 before easing back to find support above $1.4850 into the Europe open, edging back to $1.4895, currently around $1.4880. Developments in talks to form the next UK government to be watched, with today's postponed BOE policy announcement also in view.

The current political impasse so far being smoothed by reports that talks between the Conservatives and LidDems are going well but market will want to have some definite outcome sooner rather than later. Offers seen placed between $1.4900/10, a break of $1.4915 to open a move toward $1.4935/50. Support seen back at $1.4855/50 ahead of $1.4820 and $1.4800.

RES 4: $1.5358 Resistance line 19 Jan
RES 3: $1.5265 21-day moving average
RES 2: $1.5126 Low 28 Apr
RES 1: $1.4955 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4883

SUP 1: $1.4712 Low 6 May
SUP 2: $1.4487 61.8% projection
SUP 3: $1.4475 Low 7 May
SUP 4: $1.4336 76.4% of 2009/10 range 


 Forex Patterns & Probabilities: Trading Strategies for Trending & Range-Bound Markets (Wiley Trading) 
Beat the Forex Dealer: An insider's look into trading today's foreign exchange market (Wiley Trading) 
The FX Bootcamp Guide to Strategic and Tactical Forex Trading (Wiley Trading) 
Forex on Five Hours a Week: How to Make Money Trading on Your Own Time (Wiley Trading) 
Survive And Prosper In The Great Depression Of 2009-2012: A Step-By-Step Guide To Amassing A Fortune Trading Foreign Currencies 

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Euro Under Pressure Once Again

Briefing
The dollar was mixed in Asia Tuesday making headway against the yen but relatively unchanged against the Euro. Trade was light as Japanese markets are closed today as part of a 3 day holiday in Japan.

The euro is under pressure once again in early European trade down to $1.3171 from the $1.3205 level after spending the Asian session in a $1.3185-$1.3214 range. The early sell off appears to be related to continued concerns over events in Greece and the rest of the Eurozone as investors look to trim their exposure to European risk.

Dollar-yen is rallying early in the European session as reports of option knockouts and stops in the pair starting from Y95.00 running through to Y95.30 ensure that the pair remains bid. Traders note once the Y95.00 level gives way their is not much in the way of offers or resistance till Y96.00

Euro
Euro-dollar opened in early Europe around $1.3207, having been almost flat overnight in Asian trade holding around $1.3200 as the markets moved into the European open. It had been a quiet session for the euro trading in a $1.3185-$1.3214 range, traders noting hedge fund names buying in the early part of the Asian session around the $1.3190-$1.3200 level. Speculators were noted sellers on the rally, said to be reacting to headlines in the Wall Street Journal that Greece's costs exceed bailout.

However the knee jerk reaction was not followed up and the pair settled just above $1.3200. The euro was pulling off of the highs into early European trade as continued concerns over Greece and the rest of the eurozone weighed. Continued speculation of a large barrier located at $1.3100, which is said to be linked to an ACB should ensure there will be plenty of trade ahead of this level with chatter of stops building behind.

RES 4: $1.3510 55-day moving average
RES 3: $1.3464 Channel top 3 Dec
RES 2: $1.3400 High 22 Apr, 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.3365 High 30 Apr

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3203

SUP 1: $1.3114/28 Low 28 Apr, 50% projection level
SUP 2: $1.3067/80 Support line from 18 Feb, Bollinger band
SUP 3: $1.3057 38.2% retracement of $0.8232 to $1.6039
SUP 4: $1.3022 Projection calculation from Dec, Jan downmoves


Yen
The yen opened in early Europe around Y94.86 and Y125.31 vs the euro. Dollar-yen was higher once again in early Asian trade, up from Y94.57 to Y94.99 as some more stops were triggered in the pair on a break of Y94.80. Traders report there are more lying in wait starting from Y95.00 through to Y95.30 with very large located at Y95.15 as medium term prop accounts and system funds exit shorts. Sales ahead of the Y95.00 level are said to be linked to option barrier defence whilst more stops build behind.

Euro-yen was mixed after initially rallying early in the Asian session due to the move higher in dollar-yen, trading from Y124.72 to Y125.46. however the strength was short lived as option related offers in dollar-yen and sales in euro saw the cross sold off trading down to Y124.87 in early European trade as some weak longs were flushed out on a move sub Y125.00.

RES 4: Y97.52 76.4% retracement of Y101.44 decline
RES 3: Y96.03 Minor resistance line 27 Oct
RES 2: Y95.14 Resistance line from 7 Jan
RES 1: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug, 61.8% retracement of 2009 decline

CURRENT LEVEL: Y94.87

SUP 1: Y94.30 5-day moving average
SUP 2: Y93.45/70 21-DMA, Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud
SUP 3: Y92.75/81 Low 22 Apr, Minor support line 4 Mar
SUP 4: Y91.60 Low 19 Apr


Cable
Cable pulled back to the 21-day moving average, although the daily stochastic remains soft and the recent bear-cross of the 5 & 21-DMAs is still evident, so this level ($1.5340) may continue to cap recoveries. The recovery also saw the market trade back into the daily Bollinger band, the base of which moves to $1.5170.

Euro-sterling studies are seeking a base as the cross remains within the falling channel, which has dominated from the start of March. The stochastic risks a bull-cross to help bulls target Fibonacci resistance at stg0.8734/65, while the top of the channel meets the 21-DMA at stg0.8736.

RES 4: $1.5595 100-day moving average
RES 3: $1.5580 High 23 Feb
RES 2: $1.5515/22 Bollinger band, High 15 Apr
RES 1: $1.5340 21-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5264

SUP 1: $1.5126/30 Low 28, 6 Apr

SUP 2: $1.5078 61.8% retracement of April recovery
SUP 3: $1.4802 Low 25 Mar
SUP 4: $1.4783 Low 1 Mar

Monday, May 3, 2010

Euro Shorts Squaring Over Weekend

Briefing
Sterling demand was seen into early Asian trade, prompted by the positive showing by Conservative Cameron in the final pre-election debate, which allowed cable to push to early session highs of $1.5366, extending Thursday's recovery to $1.5342.

Month-end fixings are expected to prompt dollar sales, with sterling and the euro predicted by models to be the major beneficiaries.

Euro
Euro-dollar opened the Asian session around $1.3235 and initially dipped to $1.3227 before picking up a bid tone as market reacted to an FT piece suggesting that Greece has accepted the outline of E24bln in austerity measures required to secure EU/IMF debt aid. Along with the strong rally in cable, and early demand for euro-yen (end month/Goto-bi Day), the rate was pushed to an early high of $1.3266 before the move met headwind sales ahead of reported strong offers at $1.3270. Euro-yen reversed tack, a Japanese agricultural bank a noted seller of the cross which weighed back, the move down gaining momentum as traders pared risk on a WSJ report suggesting Federal prosecutors are conducting a criminal investigation into whether GS, or its employees, committed securities fraud in connection with mortgage trading.

Rate squeezed to lows of $1.3223. Rate recovered to $1.3250/55, aided by positive Greek comments from EU Barroso, eased to $1.3235 ahead of Europe before rallying to $1.3260. End month fixings expected to see dollar sales versus euro. Offers $1.3270, $1.3300. Support $1.3225/20.

RES 4: $1.3692 High 12 Apr
RES 3: $1.3495 Channel top 3 Dec
RES 2: $1.3420 High 22 Apr, 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.3260 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3252

SUP 1: $1.3114/28 Low 28 Apr, 50% projection level, Bollinger band
SUP 2: $1.3082 Support line from 18 Feb
SUP 3: $1.3057 38.2% retracement of $0.8232 to $1.6039
SUP 4: $1.3022 Projection calculation from Dec, Jan downmoves


Yen
Opened in early Europe around Y94.06 and Y124.60 Another tight range for dollar-yen overnight trading Y93.89-Y94.19 however traders report decent size flow is going through. Today is the last trading day for April and the weekly and monthly close are seen as being an important indicator for dollar-yen and could have some bearing on the next big move in the pair. Traders note that a weekly close above Y94.30 would be seen as positive for dollar-yen as the weekly Ichimoku cloud line is at Y94.28 and the pair have not closed above the cloud on a weekly basis since July 2007.

We also have the 21 month moving average at Y94.75 and a close tonight above this level would be seen as being pivotal and could open up more topside for the pair. A quiet night overnight for euro-yen with the cross consolidating ahead of Y125.00 traders report interest to sell ahead of this level with stops said to be building behind.

RES 4: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug, Res line 7 Jan, high, 61.8% of 2009 decl
RES 3: Y94.72/78 76.4% retracement of Aug/Nov decline, High 2 April
RES 2: Y94.65 Current top of the Bollinger band
RES 1: Y94.37 High 26 April

CURRENT LEVEL: Y94.06

SUP 1: Y92.95 Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud
SUP 2: Y92.75 Low 22 Apr
SUP 3: Y92.59 Minor support line 4 Mar
SUP 4: Y91.60/67 Low 19 Apr, 61.8% of 18 Mar to 2 Apr rally


Cable
Opened Asia around $1.5330, initially easing to $1.5315 before picking up a fresh bid tone. Conservative Cameron was seen as the 'winner' in last night's pre election debate and boosted hopes that his party could win an overall majority prompted the renewed demand, along with model forecasts suggesting that the pound will be a major beneficiary of month end dollar sales. Rate pushed to a high of $1.5366 before momentum faded, the rate then easing back on cross yen sales with risk positions pared as market reacted to a WSJ report suggesting a Federal investigation into GS. Cable eased back to $1.5320, recovered to $1.5350 before another drop back to retest earlier lows.

Rate then began to pick up a fresh bid tone ahead of the European open, the rate moving through Asian highs into Europe on reported model demand that has taken it on to $1.5381. Move saw euro-sterling break its overnight range of stg0.86295/0.8641, placing pressure on support around stg0.8625. Cable trades back around $1.5365. Offers remain at $1.5380/85, a break to open a move toward $1.5400 ahead of $1.5420. Support $1.5325/15.

RES 4: $1.5810 100-day moving average
RES 3: $1.5580 High 23 Feb
RES 2: $1.5520/22 Bollinger band, High 15 Apr
RES 1: $1.5340 21-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5333

SUP 1: $1.5126/30 Low 28, 6 Apr
SUP 2: $1.5078 61.8% retracement of April recovery
SUP 3: $1.4802 Low 25 Mar
SUP 4: $1.4783 Low 1 Mar

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Focus Remains on Greece/Eurozone Developments - FOMC moving into focus for tonight

Briefing
The dollar eased back from early highs against the euro as the single currency managed a weak bounce off lows. Euro-dollar led the way higher with a mild rebound back through $1.3200, having touched a session low at $1.3144, although the gains were limited to $1.3218. The recovery seen as regional bourses moderated losses with comments from EU Von Rompuy suggesting negotiations with Greece were well on track and was convening a meeting on May 10.

Dollar-yen was trading at Y93.20, close to the middle of a fairly narrow Y93.00 to Y93.37 range and was seen shrugging off strong retail sales data, though base effects were said to have diluted the positivity.

Cable extended its corrective pullback to $1.5225 (NY low $1.5240) with recovery efforts in Asia holding well below $1.5300. Sterling was also seen a victim of the move away from risk.

The Aussie was boosted by release of strong CPI data, increasing speculation for another rate hike next month. Meanwhile, the Kiwi was firm, aided by a strong business confidence number.

Greece/eurozone developments remain in focus, with FOMC tonight moving into view.

Euro
Euro-dollar opened Asia around the NY session lows of $1.3166, the rate reeling in Tuesday's session on the back of S&P downgrades to Portugal and Greece. Rate came under fresh sell pressure into early Asian dealing, extending the pullback base to $1.3144, triggering an option barrier at $1.3150 in the process, as risk aversion carried over into this session. As equity markets moderated losses so the euro began to recover, the move up aided by today's meeting of the German parliament with the IMF with ECB Trichet in attendance (news was around Tuesday but excited Asia as viewed as an emergency meeting).

Rate initially edged into a $1.3165/85 range as market watched the GS proceedings. An FT article suggesting increased aid to Greece provided further upside pressure, along with reported comments from EU president Von Rompuy that he is convening a meeting on May 10. Euro-dollar pushed to $1.3218 before reported offers toward $1.3220 countered. Rate dropped to $1.3185/80 ahead of Europe, snapping back to $1.3215 as market reacted to Greek regulator banning short selling of Greek shares until June 28.

RES 4: $1.3725 Current top of Bollinger band
RES 3: $1.3692 High 12 Apr
RES 2: $1.3420/50 High 22 Apr, 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.3275 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3206

SUP 1: $1.3147/55 Hourly lows, Base of the daily Bollinger band
SUP 2: $1.3128 50% projection level
SUP 3: $1.3096 Support line from 18 Feb
SUP 4: $1.3057 38.2% retracement of $0.8232 to $1.6039


Yen
Opened in early Europe around Y93.11 and Y122.90 Dollar-yen was heavy Tuesday as cross-yen sales weighed on the pair despite some very large buy orders going through. The pair traded down to Y92.81 in New York trade but has spent the Asian session consolidating ahead of the Y93.00 level with a range top at Y93.37. Traders note dollar-yen appears to be taking a breather before another leg lower.

Euro-yen had been under pressure in early Asian trade taking out the New York low and trading down to Y122.37. The dip was bought into as intra-day spec accounts looked to benefit from the recent volatility, the cross bounced and traded up to Y123.33 before more exiting longs came in and took the opportunity to exit. Traders note that the crosses are still very sensitive to any negative news out of the Eurozone and expect any rally to be used as an opportunity for stale longs to bail.

RES 4: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug, Res line 7 Jan, high, 61.8% of 2009 decl
RES 3: Y94.72/78 76.4% retracement of Aug/Nov decline, High 2 April
RES 2: Y94.37 High 26 April
RES 1: Y93.40/60 21, 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: Y93.13

SUP 1: Y92.98 Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud
SUP 2: Y92.65 Near-term 61.8% retracement
SUP 3: Y92.37 Minor support line 4 Mar
SUP 4: Y91.60/67 Low 19 Apr, 61.8% of 18 Mar to 2 Apr rally


Cable
Cable finally gave way to the recent weak daily signals and slipped below the 21-day moving average, which turns initial resistance and risks a bear-cross with the 5-DMA at $1.5335/50. The close below here turns bear's focus towards Fibonacci retracements at $1.5163, $1.5078.

Euro-sterling daily studies remain weak after turning lower from within neutral territory. This still leaves bears pushing for a re-test of the stg0.8604 lows to maintain the falling channel in place from the start of March.

RES 4: $1.5620/30 50% of 2010 decline, 100-day moving average
RES 3: $1.5580/93 High 23 Feb, 38.2% of Nov/Mar move
RES 2: $1.5510/22 Bollinger band, High 15 Apr
RES 1: $1.5335/50 21, 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5272

SUP 1: $1.5227 Hourly low
SUP 2: $1.5163 50% retracement, Bollinger band
SUP 3: $1.5130 Low 6 Apr
SUP 4: $1.5078 61.8% retracement of April recovery 


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