Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Euro Starts The Day Under Pressure - Cable Gains a Buoyant Tone When Cameron Takes His Seat as PM

Briefing
The dollar and yen edged higher in early Asia as equities reversed early gains and the euro continued to loose ground after its recent rally.

Euro-dollar started the day under pressure again, driving the pair off a $1.2668 high, despite dealers noting fairly light orders. The pair hit an early low of $1.2616 as funds continued to sell the euro on rallies, while bids from around $1.2600/590 contained the downside. The pair saw a brief bounce to $1.2640, before retesting the session lows, extending the base to $1.2605.

Dollar-yen saw a fairly choppy morning session within a relatively tight trading range between Y92.50/95, reflecting modest 2-way flows with most trade cross yen driven.

Sterling eased in tandem with the other majors, the initial euphoria over a Con-LibDem coalition taking cable to NY highs of $1.5005 before attention was turned to how the new UK government will handle the UK deficit, with the EU suggested to be unwilling to aid the UK if it gets into crisis.

UK trade data at 0830GMT, EZ GDP at 0900GMT and the Bank of England Inflation report at 0930GMT provide the morning's focus. US trade data is also due, at 1230GMT.

Euro
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.2663 with the rate coming under early pressure, as margin houses sold this pair along with dollar-yen and euro-yen as they reacted to the after-hours stop-driven dip in the S&P. Triggered stops on break of $1.2650 provided added weight to take rate down to $1.2615. The dip attracted short term model buyers that allowed rate to recover back to session highs of $1.2668 before faltering in the face of a euro-yen reversal prompted by the negative turnaround in Asian equities. Rate dropped back to $1.2620, edging back to $1.2650 before another wave of selling ahead of the European open took rate to lows of $1.2606. Asian sovereign demand is said to have cushioned the move lower with recovery to $1.2645/50 into early Europe aided by mid east demand. Rate currently trades around $1.2632.

Underlying tone remains bearish for euro but traders warn that the large short positions being held could leave the market open to sharp corrective spikes. Bids remain in place to $1.2600, stops on break of $1.2590. Resistance $1.2665/70, stops above. One trader notes that Asian sovereign demand is now seen placed from $1.2610 through to $1.2580, adding that there is option interest centred on the $1.2600 level, while another adds that stops are seen placed on a break of the figure. Some of the demand reportedly linked to today's German 2-yr note auction (E7bln). Above the offers at $1.2665/70 and stops above, traders seen layered offers from $1.2680 through to $1.2710.

RES 4: $1.3165 21-day moving average
RES 3: $1.3100/15 High 10 May, 50% of $1.3692 decline, Low 28 Apr
RES 2: $1.2950 High 7 May
RES 1: $1.2705 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.2624

SUP 1: $1.2530 Current base of the declining Bollinger band
SUP 2: $1.2515 Low 6 May
SUP 3: $1.2459 Recovery low 4 March
SUP 4: $1.2329 Lows Oct 2008


Yen
The yen opened in early Europe around Y92.51 and Y116.62 vs the euro. Another quiet session for dollar-yen overnight, trading a Y92.44-Y92.94 range in Asia. Early dollar-yen sales saw the pair down to the low as margin houses liquidated long positions after equity markets came under pressure. Cross-yen remained weak for much of the session trading down to Y116.67 initially as stops sub Y116.80 were triggered, then Y116.57 later in the session again as more risk aversion saw longs liquidated.

Traders report euro-yen is the cross of choice at the moment for the intraday jobbing community and note that some stops for these accounts are placed sub Y116.50 level. Traders also note stops in dollar-yen placed sub Y92.20 with bids between Y92.30-40 offers ahead of Y93.50.

RES 4: Y95.22 Resistance line from 7 Jan
RES 3: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug, 61.8% retracement of 2009 decline
RES 2: Y94.97 High 4, 5 May
RES 1: Y93.25/54 21-day moving average, High 10 May

CURRENT LEVEL: Y92.51

SUP 1: Y92.10/25 5 & 55-day moving average & Top of Ichimoku cloud
SUP 2: Y91.45/55 Tenkan & Base of Ichimoku cloud, 100-day moving average
SUP 3: Y91.20 200-day moving average
SUP 4: Y88.22 Spike low


Cable
Cable put in a bullish session Tuesday, which combines with a bull-cross in the stochastic study and an upturn in momentum to offer hopes of recovery for the bulls. However, this still risks being a "dead-cat bounce" as the market struggles to hold atop initial support at $1.4860 from the 5-day moving average, while the base of the daily Bollinger band, which is also declining is currently at $1.4760. Bulls need to quickly turn attention back to the $1.5055 high and Fibonacci levels from $1.5122.

Euro-sterling studies remain near the lows and still seek recovery, but this comes as the market rejected the 21-day moving average and reasserted the declining channel, which has dominated the trend since early March. The base of this 'channel' comes in at stg0.8408.

RES 4: $1.5330 Resistance line 19 Jan
RES 3: $1.5220 21-day moving average
RES 2: $1.5122/26 61.8% retracement of Apr/May decline, Low 28 Apr
RES 1: $1.5055 High 10 May

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4864

SUP 1: $1.4712 Low 6 May
SUP 2: $1.4487 61.8% projection
SUP 3: $1.4475 Low 7 May
SUP 4: $1.4336 76.4% of 2009/10 range

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