NordMarkets Morning FX - September 24

MORNING FX

BRIEFING
The FOMC left rates unchanged, as widely expected, keeping policy accommodative with a mild upgrade to its economic assessment. One bank notes that the FOMC made a slight change by saying they will purchase "a total" of $1.25tln agency-MBS. In previous statements officials said they would buy "up to" $1.25tln in agency-MBS. Reversal off post FOMC high of $1.4845 saw rate ease to lows of $1.4728 into the close with early Asia continuing the demand for dollars, as system and macro accounts stopped themselves out. Euro-dollar eased to $1.4685, as dollar-yen pushed up to highs of Y91.63, with cable, Aussie and Kiwi tracking the early euro-dollar move. Move was short lived as Asian sovereign dollar supply emerged to take euro-dollar up to $1.4754. Rally met model supply that countered, then reversed the move as euro-yen came under pressure from Japanese investment house sales, with model supply also noted as market moved to risk aversion as Asian regional equity markets turned negative. Nikkei was positive but seen catching up after the three day gap. Ifo and G20 today's focus.

EURO
Euro-dollar rallied to $1.4845 post FOMC only to meet strong Asian sovereign supply, with the reversal back to $1.4728 seen as US stock markets turned from positive to negative. System and macro supply continued into early, pre-Tokyo, trade with sales taking rate on to extended lows of $1.4685. Rate reversed off lows, with Asian sovereign demand providing a lift to $1.4740 ahead of a short squeeze on to $1.4754 before model funds began to provide stronger supply, the rate easing to $1.4710 before edging back to $1.4730 into early European dealing. Offers seen placed between $1.4737/43 (61.8%/76.4% $1.4754/1.4710) a break above to allow for a move back to $1.4754. Offers noted to $1.4760 with stops above, which if triggered to take rate on to $1.4780/85 ahead of $1.4800/10. Demand noted back at $1.4710/00 (61.8%/76.4% $1.4685/1.4754). Asian traders report that an Asian sovereign was a noted buyer of euro-dollar, Aussie and sterling off lows, book balancing with Bank a noted buyer of dollars Wednesday. Other Asian sovereigns also noted showing demand interest into Europe.

YEN
Dollar-yen closed the US session mid-range around Y91.32 after notching highs at Y91.55 in the wake of the FOMC announcement, while euro-yen ended around Y134.55. Early Asian dealing saw the highs extended to Y91.63 in dollar-yen before an about-turn as a Japanese investment house stepped in to sell at and after the Tokyo fix. Euro-yen had also hit early highs at Y134.69 before a major US name sold the cross down, stops triggered through Y134.00 over the Tokyo lunch break, with the rate slipping to session lows at Y133.58 and struggling to bounce through the Asian afternoon. Dollar-yen meanwhile found a base at Y90.77 and remains heavy into European dealing. Japanese demand still said to reside around Y90.50, with significant barrier protection still rumoured into Y90.00. Exporter offers are back around Y91.80. Euro-yen trading back within the Ichimoku Cloud, the base of which is seen as key support now at Y132.86.

EURUSD - TECHNICALS
The euro has almost reached its 100% projection of the Q4 2008 rally and Sept 2008 peak at $1.4851/62, and now favours correction back to $1.4613/38, which is the 21-day moving average and the former resistance from June 3. The daily studies are already beginning to turn lower, with stochastics now bearishly crossed.

RES 4: $1.4982 2.0% moving average envelope
RES 3: $1.4968 Major high Nov 2007
RES 2: $1.4906/08 Daily Bollinger band top, High Aug 22 2008
RES 1: $1.4851/62 100% projection of the Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep

SUP 1: $1.4747 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.4611 Low 21 Sep
SUP 3: $1.4517/33 Low 14 Sept, Former resistance line from 3 June
SUP 4: $1.4500 21-day moving average

USDYEN - TECHNICALS
Dollar-yen is still unable to close above the Y91.75 level, which was the major low seen in July and failure to close above here is seen leaving focus on the downside to a projected 6-month channel base, which is now valued at Y89.52. Initial support is at Y90.12/21.

RES 4: Y94.74 200-day moving average
RES 3: Y93.96 50% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 2: Y93.06 38.2% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 1: Y92.27/55 21-day moving average, 76.4% of Y93.29-Y90.15

SUP 1: Y90.71 76.4% of Y90.15 to Y92.53
SUP 2: Y90.12/21 Lows Sept 11, 14, 16
SUP 3: Y89.60/67 Proj channel base, 50% proj of the Aug/Dec downmove
SUP 4: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan


GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
Cable is holding above the 5-day moving average at $1.6310 and whilst this underpins, the risk remains on short-covering as the hourly studies continue to point higher from oversold territory. Whilst the "gravestone" doji yesterday candlestick yesterday is a worry, the hammer reversal candlestick Mon and strong white candlestick Tues is bullish.

RES 4: $1.6740 High 11 Sep
RES 3: $1.6665 Resistance line from July 2008 high
RES 2: $1.6437/54 50.0% of $1.6740 to $1.6134, High 18 Sept
RES 1: $1.6387 21-day moving average

SUP 1: $1.6264 High 21 Sept
SUP 2: $1.6100/15 Base of the dly Bollinger band, Dbl-low from early Sep
SUP 3: $1.6033 Low 13 July
SUP 4: $1.5986 Low 8 July

DAILY CALENDAR
It is a light data day in Europe Thursday, although there are speakers slated on the Continent and in the UK.

At 0700GMT, Bundesbank Vice-President Franz-Christoph Zeitler speaks on how banking regulation should change, in Frankfurt

The only data of note is the 0800GMT release of the Germany September IFO business sentiment index.

At 0830GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck hold press conference ahead of the G20 summit, in Berlin. The summit starts in Pittsburgh USA later today.

The US has a full calendar of data and speakers to sit alongside the opening of the G20 summit.

At 1230GMT, the Jobless Claims data for the Sep 19 week is due. Claims are expected to rise 5,000 to 550,000 in the September 19 week.

At 1330GMT, US Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Stability Herbert Allison testifies before Senate Banking Committee on the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act in Washington.

At 1400GMT, Existing home sales data is released. Sales are expected to rise to a 5.35 million annual rate in August after jumping 7.2% in July. Homes sales remain very weak relative to a year ago, but a clear upward trend appears to be emerging.

Back to data at 1430GMT, with the release of EIA Natural Gas Stocks. Also at 1430GMT, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans speaks on asset price exuberance and macroprudential regulation at the opening of the bank's International Banking Conference in Chicago.

At 1500GMT, Kansas City Fed Production data for September is released.

Back in Europe, at 1600GMT, France August newly registered jobseekers data is out.

Back to the speakers, and at 1700GMT, Christina Romer, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, delivers keynote the address to the Chicago Fed's International Banking Conference in Chicago.

Also at 1700GMT, Bundesbank President Axel Weber is slated to speak on "The Future of Banking Regulation" in Frankfurt, while ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark gives a speech on "The Language of Money", in Berlin

The day closes out at 2030GMT, when US 14-Sep Money Supply (M2) is released. However, there is likely to be a drip-feed of unscheduled comments from G20 delegates throughout the day.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

NordMarkets Morning FX

MORNING FX

BRIEFING
A quiet Asian session to start the week with Japan closed Monday through Wednesday and several other centres closed for religious holidays. The only action of note was in sterling where the pound came under further pressure in early trade, stops below $1.6220 triggered to take it to $1.6212 before able to make a recovery to $1.6265 on reaction to stronger than expected Rightmove housing data. Release of BOE Quarterly Bulletin reversed the recovery attempt with rate falling under $1.6200 to $1.6185. Euro was buoyed by demand for euro-sterling, euro-dollar trade contained within a range of $1.4665/1.4713 though under pressure into early Europe on generally firmer dollar. Yen traded with a slight softer tone as equity markets eased, dollar-yen triggering stops above Y91.60 to take rate on to Y92.01. Very light data calendar for today, with main focus for the week on the FOMC statement Tuesday and G20 FinMin meeting Thursday/Friday. BOE Minutes from the Sep meeting are published Wednesday. Speeches from SNB Hildebrand and Jordan are set for Friday.

EURO
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.4685 and edged to session highs of $1.4713 in relatively subdued trade due to the holiday in Japan (closed through to Wednesday). Pressure on sterling provided the euro with some buoyancy, via demand for euro-sterling, but general dollar buys eventually weighed against further gains and saw rate pullback to $1.4680. Demand for euro-yen provided a lift back to $1.4706 but again rate met decent headwind selling above $1.4700 that saw rate drift lower through the balance of the session to $1.4665 into early Europe. Further sales have taken the rate to extended lows of $1.4655, but seen meeting decent demand interest in the area ahead of $1.4650, with talk emerging of stops below. Decent technical support noted down to $1.4640 expected to provide a cushion below, a break here to allow for a deeper move toward $1.4625/20 ahead of $1.4600. Offers seen placed between $1.4680/85 ahead of $1.4695/05, stronger toward $1.4720.

Elsewhere, speculative accounts increased their net euro long positions and pared their net yen long positions as per September 15, according to CFTC data released Friday. The net position in non-commercial futures (ex-options) showed that speculators increased their net euro long to +37,772 contracts from last week's net long of +18,033 contracts, the CFTC said. In the yen, as per Sept 15, speculative accounts had a net yen long of +37,107 contracts versus last week's net yen long of +40,799 contracts, which was the largest net long since February. Y Spec accounts have had a net euro long position since May 5 and maintained a net yen long since July 7. The euro closed at $1.4659 Sept 15, versus the levels seen late Friday near $1.4700. Dollar-yen closed at Y91.03 Sept 15 vs. Friday's closing levels near Y91.45.

YEN
Dollar-yen closed the week in NY around Y91.28, with euro-yen ending back around opening Asian levels at Y134.25. Traders reported a quiet Asian session Monday with Tokyo out until Wednesday, dollar-yen moving up from the Y91.30 area, while the cross found a base at Y134.20. Subsequent bounce was sufficient to push dollar-yen through Friday's Y91.55 high, though gains were initially capped ahead of Y91.60 as euro-yen topped out in the Y134.60 area. Majority of the Asian session was then subdued within the early ranges before a late spike in both pairs saw dollar-yen making a show above Y92.00 after stops were hit through Y91.65/80, as the cross moved towards Y135.00, so far stalling at Y134.97. Traders noting reports of stops now from various names on a break of Y135.10, system accounts in particular said to have left orders in that area. Techs meanwhile note the move back above the Ichimoku Cloud at Y134.84, a close above there today required for fresh upside momentum. Offers in dollar-yen are noted in the Y92.20/25 area, ahead of tech resistance at Y92.44 (21-day moving average).

EURUSD - TECHNICALS
Turning to the technical picture, initial resistance is still seen at $1.4768 as euro-dollar trades within the $1.4830 Bollinger band. Daily studies remain firm but are now well in overbought territory, highlighting the risks of a pullback.

RES 4: $1.4908 High Aug 22 2008
RES 3: $1.4851/62 100% projection of the Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep
RES 2: $1.4830 Current top of the daily Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.4768 High 17 Sep

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4687

SUP 1: $1.4648 Low 18 Sep
SUP 2: $1.4517/30 Low 14 Sept, Former resistance line from 3 June
SUP 3: $1.4447 August high
SUP 4: $1.4440 21-day moving average


USDYEN - TECHNICALS
Dollar-yen is trying to break back above the major low seen in July at Y91.75, helped by an upturn in momentum and the daily Stochastic study. Initial support is the 5-DMA at Y91.30. Euro-yen is focused on breaking above Ichimoku cloud top at Y135. Daily studies are mixed with the stochastic clearly bullish but momentum struggling to make ground.

RES 4: Y93.96 50% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 3: Y93.06 38.2% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 2: Y92.40/80 21-day moving average, Kijun line
RES 1: Y91.75 Major low July

CURRENT LEVEL: Y91.72

SUP 1: Y91.30/50 5-DMA & Tenkan line
SUP 2: Y90.12/21 Lows Sept 11, 14, 16
SUP 3: Y89.62/67 Proj channel base, 50% proj of the Aug/Dec downmove
SUP 4: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan


GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
Cable's recent head-&-shoulders break target has been filled, although studies remain weak keeping bears focused on channel base at $1.6182 and the $1.6115 double-low. Initial resistance is the 5-day moving average at $1.6380.

RES 4: $1.6822 76.4% of August pullback
RES 3: $1.6740 High 11 Sep
RES 2: $1.6672 Resistance line from July 2008 high
RES 1: $1.6380 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.6222

SUP 1: $1.6210 Hourly low
SUP 2: $1.6182 Channel base from June 8
SUP 3: $1.6115 Double-low from early Sep
SUP 4: $1.6080 Base of the daily Bollinger band


DAILY CALENDAR
European events for Monday start at 0700GMT, when ECB Executive Board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell is due to give the opening address at a conference on "Business Models in Banking: Is There A Best Practice?", in Milan.

0800GMT sees the Bundesbank publish it's latest Monthly Bulletin, while at 0900GMT, the ECB releases a survey on "Access to finance of small- and medium sized enterprises"

There is no major UK data remaining for Monday, but at 1005GMT, the Bank of England's Sentance speaks in London.

At 1100GMT, German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck, Chancellor Angela Merkel and former ECB chief economist Ottmar Issing are due to hold a press conference on financial market regulation proposals, in Berlin.

At 1215GMT, Riksbank Deputy Governor Lars Svensson is due to give a speech "Flexible inflation targeting and the crisis", at an event in Amsterdam.

US data starts at 1330GMT with the MNI Capital Goods Index, followed at 1400GMT by the leading indicators index, which is expected to rise 0.7% in August on positive contributions from slower vendor performance, rising stock prices, in increase in building permits, and rising consumer expectations. These were offset by negative contributions from the falling money supply and rising jobless claims.

At 1430GMT, the IMF releases analytic chapters of the annual Global Financial Stability Report, at the same time as the release of the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index.

At 1630GMT, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny participates in a panel discussion of "One Year After The Crisis", in Salzburg.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

GBPUSD

Next turn, we'll more discuss about GBPUSD Pair :) (After ramadhan, of course!)

Cable

This's my position on Cable. try to catch the moment.
Always play safe with good money management, take your own this just a lil analysis

ICT

GBPUSD

and this's GBPUSD

ICT

ps: What do you think for GBPJPY now, after watch the USDJPY and GBPUSD chart??