Thursday, April 1, 2010

Dollar Hits Three Month High Against Yen

Briefing
The dollar traded firmer in Asia Wednesday, hitting a three-month high against the yen. The euro slid back below $1.3400 while dollar-yen jumped above Y93.00.

Dollar-yen broke through last night's Y93.02 high, after opening in Asia around Y92.76, triggering large stop-loss orders at Y93.10, dealers said. The pair then struck a new 3-month high of Y93.60 as fixing demand (stronger US yields) and strong yen crosses pushed the pair along. With year-end trade completed Tuesday. Traders said there was little ahead of offers at Y93.75 and Y94.00.

Euro-dollar, meanwhile, eased back this morning, as risk sentiment faded and attention appears turned toward Ireland with Greece currently now on the back burner, though still potentially influential. The pair made a brief rise to $1.3438 before specs slammed it back to $1.3405, easing to an eventual low of $1.3384. Rate currently trades around $1.3410.

Release of disappointing Australian retail sales and buildings approvals have pared rate hike expectations, and weighed against the Aussie as month end fixings move into focus.

Euro
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.3416, off Tuesday's lows at $1.3395, and edged up to mark session highs at $1.3438 on early demand for euro-yen, with talk around, from the US session, of sovereign demand interest placed below the figure. This early recovery proved short lived as the release of disappointing Australian retail sales and building approvals weighed back on the Aussie, as traders pared back rate hike expectations, with rate dropping back to $1.3405 before breaking under the figure to post lows at $1.3384 ahead of the European open.

Move down seen mainly cross driven, with continued talk of sovereign demand providing a cushion. Rate recovered back above $1.3400 into early Europe, touching a recovery high at $1.3410/15 before pivoting back around the figure. Rate currently trades around $1.3405. Rate seen in balance with Irish bank woes/IMF cutting German GDP forecasts for this year, as well as IMF comments on Italy's deficit weighing, but meeting the reported sovereign demand as well as expected interested to buy euro-dollar at today's end month fixings.

RES 4: $1.3819 High 17 Mar
RES 3: $1.3610/37 61.8% retracement, Channel top 3 Dec
RES 2: $1.3575 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.3535/45 High 30 Mar, 50% retracement of decline from 17 March

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3406

SUP 1: $1.3385 Hourly low
SUP 2: $1.3246/50/70 Low 6 May, 50% projection, Low 25 Mar
SUP 3: $1.3122 61.8% projection level
SUP 4: $1.3057 38.2% of $0.8232 to $1.6039


Yen
Opened in early Europe around Y93.23 and Y125.02 Dollar-yen broke through last Tuesday's Y93.02 high after opening in Asia around Y92.76, triggering large stop-loss buy orders at Y93.10, dealers said. The pair then struck a new of Y93.60 stalling ahead of Y93.75 the years high seen on 7th January as fixing demand and strong yen crosses pushed the pair along.

With year-end trade completed Tuesday, traders said there was little ahead of offers at Y94.00 and went on to note there is ongoing Japanese investor demand as the new financial year brings fresh investment from Japanese accounts. Cross-yen also rallied in Asian trade with euro-yen retesting the Y125.50 area and again failing as the cross pulls back to Y124.90 level just ahead of the European open. Traders note the market is fixated with the Y125.50 level and this area is said to hold the key to unlocking more gains in the cross.

RES 4: Y94.72 76.4% retracement of Aug/Nov decline
RES 3: Y94.08 Triangle implied target
RES 2: Y93.78 High 7 Jan
RES 1: Y93.66 61.8% of Nov/Jan projection

CURRENT LEVEL: Y93.36

SUP 1: Y92.70 5-day moving average
SUP 2: Y91.40/45 Tenkan line, 200-day moving average
SUP 3: Y91.05 Top of the Ichimoku cloud
SUP 4: Y90.60/82 21-DMA, Support line 4 Mar, Base & Kijun line


Cable
Cable is pressuring the 21-day moving average at $1.5065 as the daily stochastic study sits on the verge of a bull-cross. A break and close over here would improve recovery hopes, although momentum remains in negative territory and while Tuesday's rally pushed over the 50% retracement level, further Fibonacci resistance is nearby at $1.5159.

Euro-sterling slips below the 100-day moving average at stg0.8916 but now faces MA and Fibonacci support to stg0.8850 as daily studies seek a near-term base.

RES 4: $1.5382 High 17 Mar
RES 3: $1.5300 Current top of the daily Bollinger band
RES 2: $1.5244 76.4% retracement
RES 1: $1.5128/59 High 30 Mar,61.8% retracement of 17 Mar decline

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5086

SUP 1: $1.4980 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.4820 Current base of the daily Bollinger band
SUP 3: $1.4783/98 Recovery low 1 March, Low 25 Mar
SUP 4: $1.4619/59 Low 29 Apr, High 23 Feb

0 comments:


Live Economic Calendar Powered by the Forex Trading Portal Forexpros.com

FOREX SIGNAL 40 - 100 Pips a day by ICT and Daily Analysis. Powered by Blogger