Friday, October 2, 2009

NordMarkets FX Technicals - October 2

EURUSD - TECHNICALS
Euro remains corrective and decisive break/close below the 21-day moving average at $1.4600 risks extending the move towards $1.4445, which represents 50.0% of the $1.4046 to $1.4845 rally. The daily studies are still pointing lower with stochastic firmly in sell-mode and 10-day momentum in negative territory.

RES 4: $1.4908 High Aug 22 2008
RES 3: $1.4845/62 Sep high, 100% proj of Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep 2008
RES 2: $1.4802 High 24 Sept
RES 1: $1.4630 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4573

SUP 1: $1.4526 Low 29 Sep
SUP 2: $1.4445/47 50.0% of $1.4046 to $1.4845, High 5 Aug
SUP 3: $1.4351 61.8% retracement of $1.4046 to $1.4845
SUP 4: $1.4330 Low 8 Sept



GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
Cable has recovered into the Bollinger band and also overtaken the 5-DMA, which turns support at $1.5930 and $1.5770. The daily stochastic remains soft, although both it and momentum are attempting to turn off lows. While $1.5770 remains the low, the main Fibonacci retracements are $1.6141, $1.6255, $1.6369 and $1.6406 with more minor Fibonacci levels at $1.6119, $1.6201 and $1.6303.

RES 4: $1.6467 High 23 Sep
RES 3: $1.6330 100-day moving average, Low 23 Sept
RES 2: $1.6300 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.6127/34 Spike high 30 Sep, Low 21 Sept

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5936

SUP 1: $1.5930 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5803 Low 8 June
SUP 3: $1.5721/70 High Dec 2008 & 50.0% of $1.44 advance, Low 28 Sept
SUP 4: $1.5688 38.2% of $1.3500 to $1.7041



USDJPY - TECHNICALS
Recovery is still only testing the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud with daily studies not at all convincing of a stronger recovery. Initial support is the daily Bollinger band base at Y88.90 but this level is not as strong for the yen crosses as elsewhere. Key topside level is at Y91.75, which was the major low seen in July and Fibonacci levels are Y91.94, Y93.05.

RES 4: Y92.53 Failure high 21 Sept
RES 3: Y91.75/94 Major low July, 38.2% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 2: Y91.20/45 21-DMA, Kijun line of Ichimoku cloud,
RES 1: Y90.45 Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud

CURRENT LEVEL: Y90.05

SUP 1: Y88.23 Low 25 Sep
SUP 2: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan
SUP 3: Y86.05 Monthly high June 1995
SUP 4: Y84.50 Monthly low July 1995



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

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