Greece Remains in Highlight - Risk Appetite Boosted

Briefing
The dollar was mixed in the Asian morning Monday, as risk appetite improved, driving yen crosses and the euro higher. Euro-dollar rose to a $1.3655 high in Asia, boosted by an early gap higher in euro-yen. The cross broke through Y125.00 and triggered stop-loss buy orders, which helped carry it up to Y125.24 before fixing flows dragged it off the high. Euro-dollar pulled back towards $1.3600 but made another run higher as talk emerged of possible orders from Asian sovereign accounts, which lifted the pair to around $1.3640. Dollar-yen meanwhile was trading around Y91.60 as the morning ended, little changed from the NY close. The pair got an early boost from euro-yen's gains but topped out after running into offers above the morning's fix at Y91.78, from Y91.90/Y92.00.

Greece remains in the spotlight, some suggesting that positive comments over the weekend have improved the general risk tone, while tech traders see the recovery in euro-dollar as a healthy correction with downside still favoured.

It is a light data calendar for today, focus for the week on Fed Bernanke Wednesday. Data wise, focus for the week is on German IFO (Tuesday), German GDP and US new home sales (Wednesday), US durable goods orders, German employment and Japan industrial production (Thursday), euro area CPI and the second estimate for US Q4 GDP and existing home sales (Friday).

Euro
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.3615, just off Friday's late recovery high of $1.3619, with rate meeting early demand interest from a US investment bank in thin Wellington trade that pushed rate up to trip stops above $1.3630, allowing rate to extend this early rally to $1.3648. Rate eased back to $1.3635/30 before pushing higher again, this time led by Tokyo fix demand for euro-yen, which took rate to session highs of $1.3655 ($1.3657 61.8% $1.3789/1.3443).

Rate met US investment house sales around this area which again squeezed it back to $1.3630, with early supply in Europe breaking the rate below this broken resistance level as market hunted out weak Asian longs. Rate dipped to $1.3615, currently holding around $1.3620. Offers remain in place around $1.3655, a break above $1.3660 to open a move toward $1.3705/15 ($1.3707 76.4%/$1.3714 Feb 17 int.day high). Support back at $1.3605/00, a break to open a move toward $1.3580/70 ahead of $1.3550. Euro-dollar recovery off Friday $1.3443 lows aided by positive reports on Greek debt, though tech traders so far see this as a correction and keep downside favoured.

RES 4: $1.4026/46 High 3 Feb, Lows 21 Jan, 17 Aug
RES 3: $1.3838/53 High 9 Feb, Low 1 Feb
RES 2: $1.3789 High 17 Feb, 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.3655 Minor highs

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3638

SUP 1: $1.3420/50 76.4% of April/Dec rally, Bollinger base, Low 18 Feb
SUP 2: $1.3404 61.8% retracement of the post-Oct 2008
SUP 3: $1.3380 2% Moving average envelope
SUP 4: $1.3364 Projected channel support 3 Dec

Yen
Dollar-yen opens in Europe at Y91.61 euro-yen Y124.76 The dollar-yen was relatively quiet overnight, spending much of the session consolidating in a Y91.42-Y91.90 range. Initial good demand coming ahead of this weeks Toshin releases which start tomorrow. Traders noted Japanese retail accounts buying the dip helping dollar-yen test higher, however the rally was short lived and stalled at the Y91.90 level as more supply comes in ahead of the Y92.00 level. Traders had reported last week of good selling interest layered on the topside from Y92.10 upwards.

The Y92.23 level is the 200dma and capped the market on it's last test of this indicator, close behind that is down trendline resistance at Y92.37. The cross-yen tested higher early in the session with euro-yen trading on the Y125.00 handle for the first time since 4th February. This strength was sold into and the market pulled back to the Y124.70 area.

RES 4: Y93.02 50% of Nov/Jan projection
RES 3: Y92.53 76.4% retracement of Jan/Feb decline
RES 2: Y92.30 200-day moving average
RES 1: Y92.16 High 19 Feb

CURRENT LEVEL: Y91.68

SUP 1: Y91.60 Top of the Ichimoku cloud
SUP 2: Y91.30 5-day moving average
SUP 3: Y90.35/60 Tenkan & Kijun lines
SUP 4: Y90.20/30 21 & 100-day moving average

Cable
Opened Asia around the NY recovery high at $1.5476 ($1.5474 38.2% $1.5675/1.5350) and picked up an early bid tone as rate tracked euro-dollar's recovery extension, the rate pushing to an initial high at $1.5485. US investment house sales squeezed rate back to $1.5430 (Friday's recovery break out level), the rate buoyed as currency demand emerged at the Tokyo fix, with demand for yen crosses taking cable up to mark session highs at $1.5497.

Rate drifted off this fresh high, finding support around $1.5480 before early Europe provided the added weight to squeeze it back to $1.5450. Rate currently trades around $1.5460. Support seen between $1.5450/45, a break to allow for a retest on the key $1.5430 level. Below here and rate can squeeze on toward $1.5310/00. Resistance remains in place toward $1.5500, a break to expose $1.5510/15 ($1.5513 50% $1.5675/1.5350) ahead of $1.5550 (50%). Tech traders see this recovery as a healthy correction (extends 4th wave) and while rate holds below $1.5600 seen keeping underlying focus on the $1.5265/60 area.

RES 4: $1.6020 55-day moving average
RES 3: $1.5833/50 Low 30 Dec, Former bear-flag top, Low 1 Feb
RES 2: $1.5800 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.5623 Former bear-flag base

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5483

SUP 1: $1.5565 Minor support from 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5350 50% retracement of $1.3659 to $1.7041, Low 19 Feb
SUP 3: $1.5310 Current base of the daily Bollinger band
SUP 4: $1.5275 61.8% of implied full bear-flag target

MORNING FX
BRIEFING
Return of the Tokyo market (following Monday's holiday) prompted strong selling of yen crosses, at the open and through the Tokyo fix, which in turn added to the corrective pullbacks in euro-dollar, cable and the Aussie. Gold initially eased $7 to $1158, bouncing back to $1166, currently around $1164 and remaining buoyed. Repatriation, profit taking seen as the main driver, with concern toward Greece still bubbling away in the background, as well as reports in the FAZ that WestLB requires further cash injections, seen providing a counter to recent risk on tone, and also adding negative weight on the euro.

FOMC Minutes after the European close to be the day's highlight, though most expect no major surprises from the recent line. Germany GDP and Ifo data, BOE MPC at the TSC, EZ Industrial Orders the morning's highlights, with US GDP the early afternoon focus. Sterling outpaced the euro-dollar pullback in Asia with traders suggesting that the MPC could affirm the need for a weak pound for economic rebalancing which could again weigh back on the pound.

EURO
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.4960 with initial demand lifting the rate up to session highs of $1.4972 ahead of the Tokyo open. The return of Tokyo markets, following Monday's holiday, saw the centre active sellers of yen crosses into the open and through the Tokyo fix. The weight of selling took the rate through the NY base at $1.4957, with triggered stops on the break of $1.4950 providing the weight to take it on to an initial low of $1.4937. Recovery attempts were capped by sell interest between $1.4955/60 before rate pushed down to mark extended session lows at $1.4928.

Further sell interest into early Europe takes rate down to $1.4911 at writing. Support seen placed toward $1.4900, a break here to allow for a deeper move toward $1,4875/70 ahead of $1.4850/40. Resistance now seen toward $1.4930/35, a break here to open a move back toward $1.4965/75 ahead of $1.5000.

YEN
After edging up to highs at Y89.20 in the NY session, dollar-yen eased back to close around Y89.00, as euro-yen slipped back to Y133.10, failing to break through the Cloud top at Y133.88. Return of the Tokyo market Tuesday following yesterday's holiday found yen crosses under pressure from the open, further selling coming through at the fix, taking euro-yen back under Y132.80 and dollar-yen to Y88.80. Both pairs consolidated into the afternoon session, before another round of selling as the Nikkei ended at a fresh four-month low. Euro-yen dropped to Y132.45 as dollar-yen moved to Y88.73, with early European dealing seeing lows extended further.

Models and real-money accounts said to be the yen buyers, while semi-official demand is rumoured to come in around Y88.60/50 this morning, importers and investors also looking to buy the dip. Stops noted under Y88.50 and Y88.10, ahead of barrier interest at Y88.00. 200-day moving average back under pressure at Y132.29, a close below still eyed for the first time since May 2009. Trendline support from the October lows also seen cushioning at Y131.93.


CABLE
Opened in Asia around $1.6610 and initially edged up to mark session highs at $1.6620, as early market moved into risk after the positive close on Wall Street. A returning Tokyo market were strong sellers of yen crosses, the weight of which weighed back on cable to take the rate down to an initial low of $1.6560. Rate recovered to $1.6587 before turning lower again, extending the overnight base to $1.6550. Recovery to $1.6575 proved short lived as early Europe added weight. Rate broke below $1.6550, extending lows to $1.6519, with rate currently trading around $1.6524. Support seen placed toward $1.6500 ($1.6505 76.4% $1.6460/1.6649), a break here to open a deeper move toward $1.6460/50. BOE King at the TSC today with some expectation that he will again refer to a weak pound supporting UK growth. Resistance seen at $1.6550, more at $1.6570/80.

OPTIONS AND MORE
FX Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut

* Euro-dollar; $1.4900, $1.4980, $1.5000, $1.5050
* Dollar-yen; Y88.00, Y88.50(lge), Y89.50, Y90.00
* Cable; $1.6790
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.5150
* Aussie; $0.9300
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0750

EUROPEAN STOCKS: European equity bourses are seen opening lower Tuesday, with spreadbetters calling the FTSE-100 down 33pts, CAC-40 down 32pts and Xetra-DAX down 45pts. The banking sector is in focus this morning after news Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) will be undergoing a Stg13.5bln rights issue as part of its Stg22.5bln capital raising efforts, with new shares offered at 36p. The firm also managed to raise Stg8.5bln in new debt yesterday, most of which can be converted to equity if the banks finances come under pressure. On the macro front, German IFO at 0900GMT, EMU Industrial Orders at 1000GMT, US GDP data at 1330GMT and the Case-Shiller data at 1400GMT, will all be watched for direction today.

DAILY CALENDAR
The European day starts a full calendar session at 0700GMT, with the release of German detailed Q3 data, followed by French housing starts/permits and French November manufacturing sentiment at 0745GMT.

French data continues at 0750GMT, with the release of French October consumer spending. At 0800GMT, Spain Oct PPI data is released.

At 0900GMT, Germany Nov IFO business sentiment is released, the main focus for European players in the morning session

In the UK, at 0930GMT, Q3 preliminary business investment data is released, along with the October BBA Loans For House Purchase data.

At 0945GMT, Bank of England Gov. Mervyn King is at the House of Commons Treasury Committee, giving evidence on the November inflation reports. BOE MPC Members Paul Tucker, Paul Fisher, Adam Posen and Andrew Sentance also to attend.

Additionally, BOE Gov. King and MPC Member Andrew Sentance issue their Annual Report.

At the same time, German Chancellor Angela Merkel gives a speech at the BDA conference, in Berlin. AT 1000GMT, EMU Sep industrial new orders data is released, followed at 1230GMT by German Economics Minister Rainer Bruederle speaking in Berlin

A full US calendar gets underway at 1245GMT, when the 21-Nov week ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data is released.

At 1330GMT, US third quarter revised GDP, Chain Price Index data are released. Third quarter GDP is expected to be revised down to a 2.8% pace in the second estimate. The key factors are expected to be a wider trade gap and more inventory drawdown, as well as slower PCE growth than previously expected. The chain-price index is expected to be unrevised at +0.8%.

Back in Europe, at 1400GMT, the BNB Nov business sentiment is released.

Further evidence of the state of the US housing market is released at 1400GMT, when the Sept 09 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and at 1500GMT, when the Sept FHFA Home Price Index is out.

Further data is released at 1500GMT, with the November Consumer Confidence data and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Consumer confidence is expected to fall to a reading of 47.0 in November after backing up to a 47.7 reading in October.

Also at 1500GMT, FDIC Chair Sheila Bair holds a press briefing on the Q3 bank and thrift earnings in Washington.

Back in the UK, at 1535GMT, BOE Gov. King gives further testimony to Parliament, this time to the House Of Lords Economic Affairs

At 1730GMT, SNB President Jean-Pierre Roth holds speech at the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, in Geneva

Big release for the bond markets at 1900GMT in the US, when the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes are released. Last releases data is at 2200GMT, when the 22 Nov week ABC News Survey of confidence is released.

NordMarkets Morning FX - October 23

MORNING FX

BRIEFING
The Positive close on Wall Street, the Dow closing back above 10,000 again, led to gains in Asian equity markets as risk trades gained further favour to the detriment of the dollar and yen. Euro-dollar extended recent gains, pushing through the $1.5050 barrier level to $1.5061 before meeting ACB supply which eased it back to $1.5025/20 before marking lows ahead of the european open at $1.5012. Strong demand for sterling-yen saw rate trip stops through Y152.00/25, the buying seen as the main driver as dollar-yen broke above Y91.50 to Y91.73, the rate remaining buoyed above Y91.50 ahead of the European open. Euro-yen stops were triggered above Y137.60 taking rate to Y137.83. Cable was able to extend its recent gains, breaking above $1.6638 to $1.6679. Dollar was able to pare back some of its early losses as traders reacted to media reports, Fed officials are trying to soften the guidance of future statements (especially the line 'extended period'), Fed Plosser affirming he is probably the only FOMC member willing to hike. EZ PMI's, Germany IFO and UK GDP the early focus.

EURO
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.5030, off NY late recovery highs of $1.5040 seen as market reacted to the rally on Wall Street. Rate initially struggled to move above $1.5030 in early trade before strong demand emerged ahead of the Tokyo fix that was able to take it through recent highs at $1.5047, triggering the reported barrier at $1.5050 before running into decent supply above $1.5060 from an Asian sovereign that capped the move at $1.5061. Rate eased lower after the fix, the rate finding initial support at $1.5025/20 before extending the pullback to $1.5012 ahead of the European open. Recovery to $1.5025 into early Europe met renewed sell interest which has eased rate back to retest the overnight lows at writing. Demand interest seen placed from around the Asian base through to $1.5000, a break to allow for a deeper move toward $1.4985/80 ($1.4988 61.8% $1.4943/1.5061) ahead of $1.4950/40. Resistance remains above $1.5060, with further interest noted between $1.5080/85 ahead of $1.5100 with area between $1.5130/40 seen providing strong tech resistance.

The euro remains in it's rising October channel of $1.4952/1.5170 as daily studies reach stretched levels and risk a bear-cross. The pair also remains within the Bollinger band and 1% MAE, which are both rising targets at $1.5055/75. Initial support is the 5-day moving average at $1.4990.

RES 4: $1.5170 Top of October channel
RES 3: $1.5163 76.4% of $1.6039 to $1.2329
RES 2: $1.5090/10 Top of the daily Bollinger band, 1% MAE
RES 1: $1.5047 High 21 Oct

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5013

SUP 1: $1.4952 Support line from 2 Oct
SUP 2: $1.4845 High 23 Sep
SUP 3: $1.4780/90 1% moving average envelope, 21-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.4480 Low 2 Oct, Base of Bollinger band




YEN
After extending October highs to Y91.71 in the US session Thursday, dollar-yen eased back to close the day around Y91.30. while euro-yen retained a buoyant tone following the move to two-month highs at Y137.43. Traders said sterling-yen demand dominated flows in the Asian session as the cross took out stops above Y152.00/25. A few dollar-yen stops were cleared on the move through Y91.50, with the rate then moving on to challenge Thursday's highs, this time stalling at Y91.73, with subsequent dips contained around the Y91.50 area into the Asian afternoon. Euro-yen followed a similar path, triggering stops on the break of Thursday's highs en-route to a fresh two-month peak at Y137.83 before stalling in line with the August 13 spike high, with dips so far contained ahead of Y137.50 into the European open. A break of the highs in the cross seen exposing the August peak in the Y138.70 area, while stops are seen through Y138.05. Dollar-yen offers eyed at Y91.90/92.00, with techs seeing the 55-day moving average as next resistance at Y91.92.

Recovery above the 21-DMA at Y90.00 encouraged bulls to finally exceed the Y91.75 Fibonacci level and improve the outlook further. Daily studies are in overbought territory but still pointing higher.

RES 4: Y93.50 100-day moving average
RES 3: Y92.90 50% retracement of Aug/Oct decline
RES 2: Y92.53 Failure high 21 Sept, Ichimoku Cloud base
RES 1: Y91.90 55-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: Y91.86

SUP 1: Y90.25 Kijun & Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud
SUP 2: Y90.00 Minor support line, 21-DMA
SUP 3: Y88.83 Low 14 Oct
SUP 4: Y88.01 Low 7 Oct




CABLE
Opened in Asia around $1.6610 and initially eased off to mark lows at $1.6585 before lifting back above the figure, the move boosted by reported US name buying with reported large stops above $1.6650 seen as the early target. However, rate again met resistance at the NY high of $1.6638. Rate then drifted lower, moving in tandem with euro-dollar as risk positions were pared back following the release of inline China data as well as an easing in commodity currencies on weak talk linking the move to Galleon unwind needs. Rate dipped back under $1.6600 to $1.6595, recovering to $1.6625 ahead of the European open before dropping back to $1.6580 as early Europe bought dollars. Cable currently trades around $1.6598 and edging higher at writing. Offers seen placed between $1.6620/25, more around the rally highs at $1.6638, with interest said to extend toward $1.6650 with those mentioned stops above. One trader suggests area above $1.6650 could prove messy, though another on has reported Mid East and Sovereign interest positioned between $1.6640/60.

Cable continues to extend ground, supported by daily studies, but is testing the top of the daily Bollinger band at $1.6680, which will encourage profit-taking. Momentum is also fading, sending a warning to the bulls. Main resistance levels are $1.6726/40 and the 6 Aug high of $1.7041.

RES 4: $1.7041 High 6 Aug
RES 3: $1.6740 High 11 Sep
RES 2: $1.6726 76.4% retracement of $1.7041-$1.5708
RES 1: $1.6675/80 Hourly highs, top of daily Bollinger band

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.6628

SUP 1: $1.6530 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.6360 100-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.6240 Low 19 Oct
SUP 4: $1.6117/34 High 8 Oct, Low 1 Sept, Spike high 30 Sep, Low 21 Sep





OPTIONS AND MORE
FX Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,

* Euro-dollar; $1.5000, $1.4925, $1.4920, $1.4900, $1.5100
* Dollar-yen; Y92.50, Y91.50, Y91.25, Y91.00, Y90.00
* Aussie; $0.9300
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0430

Elsewhere, Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Friday's session mixed, closing at or near the session lows. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 15.82 points, or 0.15%, to stand at 10282.99, while the broader-based TOPIX was 6.57 points lower at 902.03. Volume for the Nikkei constituents totalled a preliminary 1.304 bln shares, with 96 issues trading higher, 113 lower and 16 unchanged.

DAILY CALENDAR
Data already out showed sales at John Lewis UK department stores rose 13.0% in the week to October 17 compared with the comparable week a year earlier, the John Lewis Partnership announced Friday. However, Lewis caution that the figures, although good, are again in comparison to the same week in 2008 - "the height of last year's finance sector turmoil." Total partnership sales in the same week were higher by 13.8% year-on-year on the comparable week in the 2008-09 trading year, Lewis stated. Meanwhile, total sales at the Waitrose food chain were higher, rising by 14.3% compared to the same week a year ago.

European data continues at 0600GMT with German construction orders for August, followed at 0645GMT by French consumer spending.

This morning also sees the flash manufacturing and services PMIs from the main European states, with Germany at 0627 expected to come in at 50.5 and 52.5, France at 0657GMT expected to come in at 53.0 and 53.9, and the main EMU data at 0757GMT expected to come in at the 50.0 mark (after 49.3) and 51.4 (after 50.9).

European data continues with the 0800GMT release of the october German IFO business sentiment data, which is expected to improve to a reading of 92.1 from 91.3.

After posting its largest gain since July 1996 in August, the index rose by just 0.8-points in September. Nevertheless, September marked the sixth successive month of increase from March's series low and the index already sits at its highest level since September 2008.

Today is expected to see small rises in both the current assessment and expectations components. The ZEW survey of investors, which can be a good indicator of the Ifo, posted a surprise decline in October.

However, while the ZEW index has now almost recouped most of the recession-related losses, the Ifo appears to still have more potential to move higher. Indeed, while the ZEW expectations index is more than 29 points above its long-run average, the equivalent Ifo indicator is still just below its historical average.

UK data sees the 0800GMT release of SMMT Car Production, followed at 0830GMT by BBA Loans For House Purchase, the first estimate of Q3 GDP and also the latest Index of Services data.

Further core-European data at 0900GMT sees EMU Sep industrial new orders, which are expected to come in at 1.5% m/m, -22.5% y/y.

The highly anticipated first estimate of Q3 GDP will reveal whether or not the UK has technically come out of recession and is expected to show a gain of 0.2% q/q to see growth returning to the UK economy at a very anaemic pace following five quarters of contraction. Yet forward looking survey indicators suggest that the third quarter should see the economy returning to growth at a more healthier pace with the services PMI averaging well above the 50-mark in Q3 at 54.2. However, this should come with a health warning given that the relationship between the PMI data and official GDP figures has been somewhat looser during the credit crunch. Should the UK economy fail to grow, however, this would make it not only the deepest but also the longest post-war recession.

In the US, the Boston Fed's Cape Cod conference in Chatham, Mass. continues. Today, at 1230GMT, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers a speech on the supervisory landscape there, with an audience Q&A session expected to follow.

US data sees the 1400GMT release of Existing Home Sales, which are expected to rise to a 5.35 million annual rate in September after falling in August.

At 1530GMT, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn participates in a panel discussion on international perspectives at the Boston Fed's conference.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

NordMarkets Morning FX - September 30

MORNING FX
BRIEFING
The Aussie was the big mover in Asian trade as stronger-than-expected Australian retail sales data cemented expectations of an RBA rate hike before year-end. Traders said there was already a natural bid tone as month-end real-money hedging went through, with the data release then giving the rate another 60-point kick higher to a fresh 2009 high at $0.8805. Elsewhere, talk of sizeable half-year-end fixing demand of foreign currencies proved to be inaccurate as dollar-yen was sold heavily into the fix after hitting early highs at Y90.42. Euro-yen had traded up to Y132.04 before giving back over 100-points to trade on a Y130 handle into early Europe, as dollar-yen comes back to Y89.55. Euro-dollar meanwhile regained a foothold above $1.4600 on the back of the Aussie move, rallying to $1.4633 in Asia, with early Europe taking the rate to $1.4640. Sterling continued its recovery in the wake of Tuesday's strong UK CBI retail sales data and talk that the BoE would not be lowering the reserve rate any time soon. Cable moved to $1.6035 in Asia and has extended the bounce to $1.6049 in recent trade.

EURO
Euro-dollar closed the US session around $1.4585, Asian trade then seeing a bid tone emerge as Aussie rallied strongly on better retail sales data. Traders reported stops being hit on the break back above $1.4600, with little in the way of supply to counter the move. Gains extended to $1.4633, with euro-dollar remaining buoyed on a $1.46 handle through the balance of the Asian day. Early European dealing then provided the added push for a move to $1.4644, the rate currently trading back around $1.4625. Techs are noting the rate failed to close below the 21-day moving average last night, today seen as pivotal at $1.4580. Bids said to be forming on the downside at $1.4530, said to be semi-official in nature. Topside orderboards said to be pretty mixed with no clear bias. Attention today now centred around the ECB one-year liquidity tender, due to close at 0900GMT.

YEN
Dollar-yen closed a quiet US afternoon session around Y90.10, while euro-yen ended firm around Y131.43. Talk of strong demand for foreign currencies versus the yen at the half year-end fix circulated into the Asian session, pushing dollar-yen up to Y90.42 before offers began to stack up from exporters. Euro-yen followed a similar path, trading up to Y132.04 before fixing sales knocked the yen pairs back. Traders noted a Japanese agricultural bank as a decent seller, local real-money accounts also active as dollar-yen slipped back below Y90.00. Heavier tone prevailed into the Tokyo afternoon as dollar-yen retreated to Y89.63, early Europe then knocking the pair lower still to Y89.55 as euro-yen gave back over 100-points from the overnight highs to lows under Y131.00. Bids noted into Y89.50 with some stop interest below. On the topside, talk now of large stops from CTA and model accounts on a break of Y90.50/55. Euro-yen demand comes in around Y130.70, key support still seen as the 200-day moving average at Y129.60.

EURUSD - TECHNICALS
Turning to the technical picture, the euro is still looking corrective with a weak daily stochastic study and a negative break for momentum. Near-term the 21-day moving average is lending support at $1.4580 with initial resistance at the 5-DMA at $1.4645. Outside of there, support/resistance is $1.4526/$1.4802.

RES 4: $1.4908 High Aug 22 2008, Daily Bollinger band top
RES 3: $1.4851/62 100% projection of the Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep 2008
RES 2: $1.4802 High 24 Sept
RES 1: $1.4645 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4633

SUP 1: $1.4580 21-DMA, Low 28 Sept
SUP 2: $1.4526 Low 29 Sep
SUP 3: $1.4447 High 5 Aug
SUP 4: $1.4330 Low 8 Sept

GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
Cable has recovered into the Bollinger band and also overtaken the 5-DMA, which turn support at $1.5940 and $1.5820. The daily stochastic remains soft, although both it and momentum are attempting to turn off lows. There is a congestion level at $1.6085 ahead of former Sep lows at$1.6115/34. While $1.5770 remains the low, the main Fibonacci retracements are $1.6141/1.6255, $1.6369 and $1.6406 with more minor Fibonacci levels at $1.6119, $1.6201 and $1.6303.

RES 4: $1.6467 High 23 Sep
RES 3: $1.6320/30 21, 100-day moving average, Low 23 Sept
RES 2: $1.6115/34 Lows 1, 21 Sept
RES 1: $1.6085 Hourly congestion level

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.6048

SUP 1: $1.5940 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5803/20 Low 8 June, Base of the daily Bollinger band
SUP 3: $1.5721/70 High Dec 2008 & 50.0% of $1.44 advance, Low 28 Sept
SUP 4: $1.5688 38.2% of $1.3500 to $1.7041

USDJPY - TECHNICALS
Dollar-yen recovery is still only testing the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud at the moment with daily studies not at all convincing of a stronger recovery. Initial support is the daily Bollinger band base at Y89.00 but this level is not as strong for the yen crosses as elsewhere. Key topside level is at Y91.75 level, which was the major low seen in July and Fibonacci levels are Y91.94, Y93.05.

RES 4: Y92.53 Failure high 21 Sept
RES 3: Y91.75/94 Major low July, 38.2% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 2: Y91.30/50 21-DMA, Kijun line of Ichimoku cloud,
RES 1: Y90.45 Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud

CURRENT LEVEL: Y89.80

SUP 1: Y88.23 Low 25 Sep
SUP 2: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan
SUP 3: Y86.05 Monthly high June 1995
SUP 4: Y84.50 Monthly low July 1995

DAILY CALENDAR
A busy calendar starts at 0600GMT with he release of the IMF Global Financial Stability Report and also the German August ILO employment change.

The first of many speakers comes at 0645GMT, when ECB Vice-President Lucas Papademos, ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber and Riksbank Gov. Stefan Ingves participate in a discussion on implementation of de Larosiere regulation and supervision package at The Eurofi Financial Forum, in Goteborg.

European data continues with France PPI at 0645GMT, shortly followed at 0650GMT by the release of Q2 Maastricht debt data.

The main German September unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 8.4% at 0755GMT with Germany also seeing VDMA machine-tool orders at 0800GMT.

At 0830GMT, ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer participates in a discussion on prudential and governance rules to ensure effective financial stability? at The Eurofi Financial Forum, in Goteborg The BOE's Miles speaks in Belfast at 0900GMT, at the same time as the SNB publishes the latest Quarterly Bulletin.

EMU Sep flash HICP data is due at 0900GMT and is expected to come in at -0.2% y/y.

US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index.

At 1200GMT, Riksbank Deputy Gov. Lars Nyberg participates in a discussion on "Crisis management of cross-border institutions: how to leverage best practices?" at the event in Goteborg, while also in Scandinavia today, although the time is uncertain, Norges Bank Governor Svein Gjedrem is due to deliver a speech at a seminar by the Center for Monetary Economics in Oslo.

US data continues with the 1215GMT release of the ADP National Employment Report, which is followed at 1230GMT by the third release of Q2 GDP and the Chain Price Index.

Second quarter GDP is expected to be revised to -1.2% in third reading for the quarter. The chain price index is expected to be revised to remain flat.

NY NAPM data is due at 1300GMT, while at 1345GMT, the Chicago PMI is expected to increase to a reading of 52.0 in September. Other regional data already released have suggested continued expansion, though still at a slow pace.

Further data sees the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks at 1430GMT. Central bank speakers then continue through the afternoon and evening.

At 1430GMT, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart delivers a speech on the US economic outlook on the University of South Alabama in Mobile.

At 1630GMT, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet gives the keynote address during the event in Gotegorg.

At 1635GMT, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn appears on a panel at the Cato Institute's Shadow Open Market Committee meeting on central bank exit policies.

Finally, at 1830GMT, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo testifies to the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Security and International Trade and Commerce on international regulatory cooperation.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

NordMarkets Morning FX

MORNING FX

BRIEFING
A quiet Asian session to start the week with Japan closed Monday through Wednesday and several other centres closed for religious holidays. The only action of note was in sterling where the pound came under further pressure in early trade, stops below $1.6220 triggered to take it to $1.6212 before able to make a recovery to $1.6265 on reaction to stronger than expected Rightmove housing data. Release of BOE Quarterly Bulletin reversed the recovery attempt with rate falling under $1.6200 to $1.6185. Euro was buoyed by demand for euro-sterling, euro-dollar trade contained within a range of $1.4665/1.4713 though under pressure into early Europe on generally firmer dollar. Yen traded with a slight softer tone as equity markets eased, dollar-yen triggering stops above Y91.60 to take rate on to Y92.01. Very light data calendar for today, with main focus for the week on the FOMC statement Tuesday and G20 FinMin meeting Thursday/Friday. BOE Minutes from the Sep meeting are published Wednesday. Speeches from SNB Hildebrand and Jordan are set for Friday.

EURO
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.4685 and edged to session highs of $1.4713 in relatively subdued trade due to the holiday in Japan (closed through to Wednesday). Pressure on sterling provided the euro with some buoyancy, via demand for euro-sterling, but general dollar buys eventually weighed against further gains and saw rate pullback to $1.4680. Demand for euro-yen provided a lift back to $1.4706 but again rate met decent headwind selling above $1.4700 that saw rate drift lower through the balance of the session to $1.4665 into early Europe. Further sales have taken the rate to extended lows of $1.4655, but seen meeting decent demand interest in the area ahead of $1.4650, with talk emerging of stops below. Decent technical support noted down to $1.4640 expected to provide a cushion below, a break here to allow for a deeper move toward $1.4625/20 ahead of $1.4600. Offers seen placed between $1.4680/85 ahead of $1.4695/05, stronger toward $1.4720.

Elsewhere, speculative accounts increased their net euro long positions and pared their net yen long positions as per September 15, according to CFTC data released Friday. The net position in non-commercial futures (ex-options) showed that speculators increased their net euro long to +37,772 contracts from last week's net long of +18,033 contracts, the CFTC said. In the yen, as per Sept 15, speculative accounts had a net yen long of +37,107 contracts versus last week's net yen long of +40,799 contracts, which was the largest net long since February. Y Spec accounts have had a net euro long position since May 5 and maintained a net yen long since July 7. The euro closed at $1.4659 Sept 15, versus the levels seen late Friday near $1.4700. Dollar-yen closed at Y91.03 Sept 15 vs. Friday's closing levels near Y91.45.

YEN
Dollar-yen closed the week in NY around Y91.28, with euro-yen ending back around opening Asian levels at Y134.25. Traders reported a quiet Asian session Monday with Tokyo out until Wednesday, dollar-yen moving up from the Y91.30 area, while the cross found a base at Y134.20. Subsequent bounce was sufficient to push dollar-yen through Friday's Y91.55 high, though gains were initially capped ahead of Y91.60 as euro-yen topped out in the Y134.60 area. Majority of the Asian session was then subdued within the early ranges before a late spike in both pairs saw dollar-yen making a show above Y92.00 after stops were hit through Y91.65/80, as the cross moved towards Y135.00, so far stalling at Y134.97. Traders noting reports of stops now from various names on a break of Y135.10, system accounts in particular said to have left orders in that area. Techs meanwhile note the move back above the Ichimoku Cloud at Y134.84, a close above there today required for fresh upside momentum. Offers in dollar-yen are noted in the Y92.20/25 area, ahead of tech resistance at Y92.44 (21-day moving average).

EURUSD - TECHNICALS
Turning to the technical picture, initial resistance is still seen at $1.4768 as euro-dollar trades within the $1.4830 Bollinger band. Daily studies remain firm but are now well in overbought territory, highlighting the risks of a pullback.

RES 4: $1.4908 High Aug 22 2008
RES 3: $1.4851/62 100% projection of the Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep
RES 2: $1.4830 Current top of the daily Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.4768 High 17 Sep

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4687

SUP 1: $1.4648 Low 18 Sep
SUP 2: $1.4517/30 Low 14 Sept, Former resistance line from 3 June
SUP 3: $1.4447 August high
SUP 4: $1.4440 21-day moving average


USDYEN - TECHNICALS
Dollar-yen is trying to break back above the major low seen in July at Y91.75, helped by an upturn in momentum and the daily Stochastic study. Initial support is the 5-DMA at Y91.30. Euro-yen is focused on breaking above Ichimoku cloud top at Y135. Daily studies are mixed with the stochastic clearly bullish but momentum struggling to make ground.

RES 4: Y93.96 50% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 3: Y93.06 38.2% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 2: Y92.40/80 21-day moving average, Kijun line
RES 1: Y91.75 Major low July

CURRENT LEVEL: Y91.72

SUP 1: Y91.30/50 5-DMA & Tenkan line
SUP 2: Y90.12/21 Lows Sept 11, 14, 16
SUP 3: Y89.62/67 Proj channel base, 50% proj of the Aug/Dec downmove
SUP 4: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan


GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
Cable's recent head-&-shoulders break target has been filled, although studies remain weak keeping bears focused on channel base at $1.6182 and the $1.6115 double-low. Initial resistance is the 5-day moving average at $1.6380.

RES 4: $1.6822 76.4% of August pullback
RES 3: $1.6740 High 11 Sep
RES 2: $1.6672 Resistance line from July 2008 high
RES 1: $1.6380 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.6222

SUP 1: $1.6210 Hourly low
SUP 2: $1.6182 Channel base from June 8
SUP 3: $1.6115 Double-low from early Sep
SUP 4: $1.6080 Base of the daily Bollinger band


DAILY CALENDAR
European events for Monday start at 0700GMT, when ECB Executive Board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell is due to give the opening address at a conference on "Business Models in Banking: Is There A Best Practice?", in Milan.

0800GMT sees the Bundesbank publish it's latest Monthly Bulletin, while at 0900GMT, the ECB releases a survey on "Access to finance of small- and medium sized enterprises"

There is no major UK data remaining for Monday, but at 1005GMT, the Bank of England's Sentance speaks in London.

At 1100GMT, German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck, Chancellor Angela Merkel and former ECB chief economist Ottmar Issing are due to hold a press conference on financial market regulation proposals, in Berlin.

At 1215GMT, Riksbank Deputy Governor Lars Svensson is due to give a speech "Flexible inflation targeting and the crisis", at an event in Amsterdam.

US data starts at 1330GMT with the MNI Capital Goods Index, followed at 1400GMT by the leading indicators index, which is expected to rise 0.7% in August on positive contributions from slower vendor performance, rising stock prices, in increase in building permits, and rising consumer expectations. These were offset by negative contributions from the falling money supply and rising jobless claims.

At 1430GMT, the IMF releases analytic chapters of the annual Global Financial Stability Report, at the same time as the release of the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index.

At 1630GMT, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny participates in a panel discussion of "One Year After The Crisis", in Salzburg.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

Consolidation

If you look carefully at the picture below you'll be more carefully with your position. Look like GJ now already in consolidation area. Flying or Falling?

Always play safe
ICT

Learn by yourself

In forex market, you against the others. Thats way you need to learn by yourself, you have to improve your feeling and technical by learn the basic indicators. You have to explore what is Moving Average (MA), Fibonacci, Pivot, Volume, Stochastic, and others. Explore them and learn when whe should use them all. Do not buy any indicators from others which you don't know what setting they used. That indicators just build by seller who never win in their trade so they selling its to you. "nobody will sell something which can be used by him/her self to be a winner". You can learn from other people but "do not follow them" even others people in chat room call they are a master, trust me "there's not a master", their analysis just can be just a comparison with yours. You need (or must?) to find "your style" by yourself. Sometimes people who talking to much have nothing, they just want to be a famous :), be cool calm & confidence. what can make you "cool, calm & confident"? the answer is "you've already know how to use that indicators" and make you feel that.













Regards
ICT