Euro Starts The Day Under Pressure - Cable Gains a Buoyant Tone When Cameron Takes His Seat as PM

Briefing
The dollar and yen edged higher in early Asia as equities reversed early gains and the euro continued to loose ground after its recent rally.

Euro-dollar started the day under pressure again, driving the pair off a $1.2668 high, despite dealers noting fairly light orders. The pair hit an early low of $1.2616 as funds continued to sell the euro on rallies, while bids from around $1.2600/590 contained the downside. The pair saw a brief bounce to $1.2640, before retesting the session lows, extending the base to $1.2605.

Dollar-yen saw a fairly choppy morning session within a relatively tight trading range between Y92.50/95, reflecting modest 2-way flows with most trade cross yen driven.

Sterling eased in tandem with the other majors, the initial euphoria over a Con-LibDem coalition taking cable to NY highs of $1.5005 before attention was turned to how the new UK government will handle the UK deficit, with the EU suggested to be unwilling to aid the UK if it gets into crisis.

UK trade data at 0830GMT, EZ GDP at 0900GMT and the Bank of England Inflation report at 0930GMT provide the morning's focus. US trade data is also due, at 1230GMT.

Euro
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.2663 with the rate coming under early pressure, as margin houses sold this pair along with dollar-yen and euro-yen as they reacted to the after-hours stop-driven dip in the S&P. Triggered stops on break of $1.2650 provided added weight to take rate down to $1.2615. The dip attracted short term model buyers that allowed rate to recover back to session highs of $1.2668 before faltering in the face of a euro-yen reversal prompted by the negative turnaround in Asian equities. Rate dropped back to $1.2620, edging back to $1.2650 before another wave of selling ahead of the European open took rate to lows of $1.2606. Asian sovereign demand is said to have cushioned the move lower with recovery to $1.2645/50 into early Europe aided by mid east demand. Rate currently trades around $1.2632.

Underlying tone remains bearish for euro but traders warn that the large short positions being held could leave the market open to sharp corrective spikes. Bids remain in place to $1.2600, stops on break of $1.2590. Resistance $1.2665/70, stops above. One trader notes that Asian sovereign demand is now seen placed from $1.2610 through to $1.2580, adding that there is option interest centred on the $1.2600 level, while another adds that stops are seen placed on a break of the figure. Some of the demand reportedly linked to today's German 2-yr note auction (E7bln). Above the offers at $1.2665/70 and stops above, traders seen layered offers from $1.2680 through to $1.2710.

RES 4: $1.3165 21-day moving average
RES 3: $1.3100/15 High 10 May, 50% of $1.3692 decline, Low 28 Apr
RES 2: $1.2950 High 7 May
RES 1: $1.2705 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.2624

SUP 1: $1.2530 Current base of the declining Bollinger band
SUP 2: $1.2515 Low 6 May
SUP 3: $1.2459 Recovery low 4 March
SUP 4: $1.2329 Lows Oct 2008

Yen
The yen opened in early Europe around Y92.51 and Y116.62 vs the euro. Another quiet session for dollar-yen overnight, trading a Y92.44-Y92.94 range in Asia. Early dollar-yen sales saw the pair down to the low as margin houses liquidated long positions after equity markets came under pressure. Cross-yen remained weak for much of the session trading down to Y116.67 initially as stops sub Y116.80 were triggered, then Y116.57 later in the session again as more risk aversion saw longs liquidated.

Traders report euro-yen is the cross of choice at the moment for the intraday jobbing community and note that some stops for these accounts are placed sub Y116.50 level. Traders also note stops in dollar-yen placed sub Y92.20 with bids between Y92.30-40 offers ahead of Y93.50.

RES 4: Y95.22 Resistance line from 7 Jan
RES 3: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug, 61.8% retracement of 2009 decline
RES 2: Y94.97 High 4, 5 May
RES 1: Y93.25/54 21-day moving average, High 10 May

CURRENT LEVEL: Y92.51

SUP 1: Y92.10/25 5 & 55-day moving average & Top of Ichimoku cloud
SUP 2: Y91.45/55 Tenkan & Base of Ichimoku cloud, 100-day moving average
SUP 3: Y91.20 200-day moving average
SUP 4: Y88.22 Spike low

Cable
Cable put in a bullish session Tuesday, which combines with a bull-cross in the stochastic study and an upturn in momentum to offer hopes of recovery for the bulls. However, this still risks being a "dead-cat bounce" as the market struggles to hold atop initial support at $1.4860 from the 5-day moving average, while the base of the daily Bollinger band, which is also declining is currently at $1.4760. Bulls need to quickly turn attention back to the $1.5055 high and Fibonacci levels from $1.5122.

Euro-sterling studies remain near the lows and still seek recovery, but this comes as the market rejected the 21-day moving average and reasserted the declining channel, which has dominated the trend since early March. The base of this 'channel' comes in at stg0.8408.

RES 4: $1.5330 Resistance line 19 Jan
RES 3: $1.5220 21-day moving average
RES 2: $1.5122/26 61.8% retracement of Apr/May decline, Low 28 Apr
RES 1: $1.5055 High 10 May

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4864

SUP 1: $1.4712 Low 6 May
SUP 2: $1.4487 61.8% projection
SUP 3: $1.4475 Low 7 May
SUP 4: $1.4336 76.4% of 2009/10 range

Focus Remains on Greece/Eurozone Developments - FOMC moving into focus for tonight

Briefing
The dollar eased back from early highs against the euro as the single currency managed a weak bounce off lows. Euro-dollar led the way higher with a mild rebound back through $1.3200, having touched a session low at $1.3144, although the gains were limited to $1.3218. The recovery seen as regional bourses moderated losses with comments from EU Von Rompuy suggesting negotiations with Greece were well on track and was convening a meeting on May 10.

Dollar-yen was trading at Y93.20, close to the middle of a fairly narrow Y93.00 to Y93.37 range and was seen shrugging off strong retail sales data, though base effects were said to have diluted the positivity.

Cable extended its corrective pullback to $1.5225 (NY low $1.5240) with recovery efforts in Asia holding well below $1.5300. Sterling was also seen a victim of the move away from risk.

The Aussie was boosted by release of strong CPI data, increasing speculation for another rate hike next month. Meanwhile, the Kiwi was firm, aided by a strong business confidence number.

Greece/eurozone developments remain in focus, with FOMC tonight moving into view.

Euro
Euro-dollar opened Asia around the NY session lows of $1.3166, the rate reeling in Tuesday's session on the back of S&P downgrades to Portugal and Greece. Rate came under fresh sell pressure into early Asian dealing, extending the pullback base to $1.3144, triggering an option barrier at $1.3150 in the process, as risk aversion carried over into this session. As equity markets moderated losses so the euro began to recover, the move up aided by today's meeting of the German parliament with the IMF with ECB Trichet in attendance (news was around Tuesday but excited Asia as viewed as an emergency meeting).

Rate initially edged into a $1.3165/85 range as market watched the GS proceedings. An FT article suggesting increased aid to Greece provided further upside pressure, along with reported comments from EU president Von Rompuy that he is convening a meeting on May 10. Euro-dollar pushed to $1.3218 before reported offers toward $1.3220 countered. Rate dropped to $1.3185/80 ahead of Europe, snapping back to $1.3215 as market reacted to Greek regulator banning short selling of Greek shares until June 28.

RES 4: $1.3725 Current top of Bollinger band
RES 3: $1.3692 High 12 Apr
RES 2: $1.3420/50 High 22 Apr, 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.3275 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3206

SUP 1: $1.3147/55 Hourly lows, Base of the daily Bollinger band
SUP 2: $1.3128 50% projection level
SUP 3: $1.3096 Support line from 18 Feb
SUP 4: $1.3057 38.2% retracement of $0.8232 to $1.6039

Yen
Opened in early Europe around Y93.11 and Y122.90 Dollar-yen was heavy Tuesday as cross-yen sales weighed on the pair despite some very large buy orders going through. The pair traded down to Y92.81 in New York trade but has spent the Asian session consolidating ahead of the Y93.00 level with a range top at Y93.37. Traders note dollar-yen appears to be taking a breather before another leg lower.

Euro-yen had been under pressure in early Asian trade taking out the New York low and trading down to Y122.37. The dip was bought into as intra-day spec accounts looked to benefit from the recent volatility, the cross bounced and traded up to Y123.33 before more exiting longs came in and took the opportunity to exit. Traders note that the crosses are still very sensitive to any negative news out of the Eurozone and expect any rally to be used as an opportunity for stale longs to bail.

RES 4: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug, Res line 7 Jan, high, 61.8% of 2009 decl
RES 3: Y94.72/78 76.4% retracement of Aug/Nov decline, High 2 April
RES 2: Y94.37 High 26 April
RES 1: Y93.40/60 21, 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: Y93.13

SUP 1: Y92.98 Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud
SUP 2: Y92.65 Near-term 61.8% retracement
SUP 3: Y92.37 Minor support line 4 Mar
SUP 4: Y91.60/67 Low 19 Apr, 61.8% of 18 Mar to 2 Apr rally

Cable
Cable finally gave way to the recent weak daily signals and slipped below the 21-day moving average, which turns initial resistance and risks a bear-cross with the 5-DMA at $1.5335/50. The close below here turns bear's focus towards Fibonacci retracements at $1.5163, $1.5078.

Euro-sterling daily studies remain weak after turning lower from within neutral territory. This still leaves bears pushing for a re-test of the stg0.8604 lows to maintain the falling channel in place from the start of March.

RES 4: $1.5620/30 50% of 2010 decline, 100-day moving average
RES 3: $1.5580/93 High 23 Feb, 38.2% of Nov/Mar move
RES 2: $1.5510/22 Bollinger band, High 15 Apr
RES 1: $1.5335/50 21, 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5272

SUP 1: $1.5227 Hourly low
SUP 2: $1.5163 50% retracement, Bollinger band
SUP 3: $1.5130 Low 6 Apr
SUP 4: $1.5078 61.8% retracement of April recovery 

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Focus Remains on Greece Developments

Briefing
The dollar was mixed in Asia, marking modest gains against the yen on firmer yen crosses but remained almost flat on the euro.

Euro-dollar lost ground at the start of the morning's session with a German name selling from $1.3381 to a $1.3317 low, before bids from Japanese accounts then appeared, from $1.3320, and sparked a modest short-covering bounce to a $1.3398 high. Euro-dollar eased as offers at $1.3400 capped its rebound, and traded between $1.3365 and $1.3380 ahead of the European open, currently around $1.3372.

Dollar-yen ran into some early profit-taking interest at Y94.00 at the start of the day, although the retreat was limited to Y93.93. The pair marked a Y94.37 morning high, but was then limited by sell orders from corporate accounts spotted just ahead, from Y94.50 to Y94.80.

Sterling retained its recent buoyant tone through Asia, extending its recovery off Friday lows of $1.5295 to $1.5468, and holding just off highs into Europe.

It is a very light data calendar today with attention remaining on Greek developments. FOMC on Wednesday is the next major point of interest ahead of US GDP Friday.

Euro
Euro-dollar closed NY Friday at $1.3372, having traded to a recovery high late in that session of $1.3400 on optimism over the proposed Greek loan provision. Rate came under early downside pressure into Asian trade, a major German name linked to heavy sales that took the rate down to a session low of $1.3317 before running into suggested option related demand. One trader notes decent sized option maturities for today with strikes at $1.3325, $1.3300 and $1.3280, possibly linked to the demand interest. Spec shorts covered back, with the same German name a noted buyer as the rate edged back above $1.3340, gaining pace ahead of the Tokyo fix and topping out at $1.3398 before easing back to $1.3360.

The euro managed a quick recovery to $1.3380 ahead of the European open, but fresh sell interest quickly emerged to knock rate back to $1.3350 into the session. The euro currently trades around $1.3358. Offers are seen placed towards $1.3400, with talk of stops on a break of $1.3410. Mix of offers and stops noted at $1.3440, the sell interest said to extend to $1.3450. Support noted from around $1.3320 (Asia low $1.3317), through to $1.3280, with one trader noting stronger interest begins from below $1.3295. Stops noted on a break of $1.3280.



RES 4: $1.3819 High 17 Mar
RES 3: $1.3710 Current top of Bollinger band
RES 2: $1.3692 High 12 Apr
RES 1: $1.3475 21-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3367

SUP 1: $1.3201 Lows 22, 23 Apr
SUP 2: $1.3111/28 Minor support line from mid-Feb, 50% projection
SUP 3: $1.3054/57 Supp line from Feb 2002, 38.2% of $0.8232 to $1.6039
SUP 4: $1.3022 Projection calculation from Dec, Jan downmoves

Yen
It was a moderate session for yen overnight with dollar-yen opening initially off of Friday's high levels and trading down to Y93.85. The dip was bought into and dollar-yen traded up to Y94.37 on cross-yen demand. Traders are wary of the weekly Ichimoku cloudline at Y94.28 level and note that Friday was the first time the pair had traded above the weekly cloud since August 2007. Offers are said to be stacking up ahead of Y94.50 through to Y95.00 whilst bids are building around Y93.80 area.

Cross-yen tested higher once again overnight after initially trading down to Y125.30 as traders looked at the Greek rescue package with a slight negative view. Traders note a lack of detail on the deal and questioning whether or not this will resolve Greece's problems long-term adding to the euro's woes. The weakness was short lived and a spike above Friday's high to Y126.30 ensued, offers capped and the cross moved back sub Y126.00 to open Europe around Y125.89 level.



RES 4: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug 2009, 61.8% retracement of 2009 decline
RES 3: Y95.04 Minor resistance line from Jan high
RES 2: Y94.72/78 76.4% retracement of Aug/Nov decline, High 2 April
RES 1: Y94.35 Hourly high

CURRENT LEVEL: Y94.22

SUP 1: Y93.30/60 21, 5-day moving average
SUP 2: Y92.95 Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud
SUP 3: Y92.15 Minor support line 4 Mar
SUP 4: Y91.60/67 Low 19 Apr, 61.8% of 18 Mar to 2 Apr rally

Cable
Opened Asian trade around $1.5380 and was initially pressed back to lows of $1.5365 as rate tracked euro-dollar's early fall. However, sterling retained its recent underlying buoyant tone which allowed rate to rebound, the move back up aided by sterling-yen demand. Rate met resistance around $1.5440 before edging on to $1.5468 ahead of the European open. Rate has been pressured back to $1.5425 into early Europe, traders noting macro supply hitting the early market.

Traders make note that ongoing dividend linked demand from a UK oil company expected again today, with talk also that a UK clearer has similar interest for its dividend needs. Cable currently trades around $1.5445. Offers seen placed from around the overnight high at $1.5468 through to $1.5476 (April 22 high), with stops above $1.5480. A break here to open a move toward $1.5500/10 ahead of $1.5525. Support $1.5325/15.



RES 4: $1.5650 100-day moving average
RES 3: $1.5620 50% of 2010 decline
RES 2: $1.5580/93 High 23 Feb, 38.2% of Nov/Mar move
RES 1: $1.5522 High 15 Apr, Bollinger band

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5432

SUP 1: $1.5310 21-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5163 50% retracement
SUP 3: $1.5130 Low 6 Apr
SUP 4: $1.5078 61.8% retracement of April recovery

Euro Remains Under Pressure

Briefing
The euro remained under pressure through the Asian session Thursday, the single European currency still pressured by concerns over Greek debt but the downside still cushioned by reported Asian sovereign demand. Some suggest this demand is linked to a $1.33/1.36 option range play.

Euro-dollar squeezed to an extended low of $1.3314 (NY low $1.3326), then trading around $1.3326 into early Europe.

The Yen sees pressure on both sides, with Geithner's reported detour to China next week further sparking speculation of yuan appreciation, with the yen seeing proxy demand.

The Aussie was boosted overnight on the release of jobs data, coming in at the expected level but enough to prompt further demand.

UK Halifax housing data at 0800GMT, UK IP at 0830GMT followed by eurozone retail sales at 0900GMT provide the morning's highlights ahead of the BOE and ECB rate announcements at 1100/1145GMT. No change widely expected in both with 1230GMT comments from Trichet being the main interest.

Euro
Euro-dollar opened Asia at $1.3345 and managed to edge to $1.3348 to post session highs at $1.3348 before reversing lower on fresh euro-yen sales. Rate pushed through Wednesday's lows at $1.3326 to extend recent pullback to $1.3314, but move lower again was seen meeting decent Asian demand that cushioned the rate ahead of $1.3300. Continued talk suggesting that a $1.33/1.36 dnt option structure is in play and held by a major Asian sovereign.

However, with ongoing concern toward Greek debt, and yen demand seen as a proxy for speculated yuan appreciation via euro-yen, seen providing the main weight with a break of $1.3300 expected to allow for a quick dip down to $1.3270/65. Some reports suggest demand in place from the overnight low at $1.3314 through to $1.3250 with main stops below. Resistance noted at $1.3350, more from around $1.3370 through to $1.3420 with stops placed on a break of $1.3425, larger ones above $1.3450. Rate currently trades around $1.3330 into early Europe.

RES 4: $1.3800/19 Current top of Bollinger band, High 17 Mar
RES 3: $1.3650 55-day moving average
RES 2: $1.3591 High 1 Apr
RES 1: $1.3520/29 21-day moving average, Channel top 3 Dec

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3328

SUP 1: $1.3270 Low 25 Mar
SUP 2: $1.3246/50 Low 6 May, 50% projection level
SUP 3: $1.3210 Current base of the daily Bollinger band
SUP 4: $1.3122 61.8% projection level

Yen
Euro-yen sales again provided the early lead into Asian trading, the move down from early posted session highs of Y124.59 taking the rate through the NY base at Y124.49 and on to lows of Y124.19. The euro still seen reeling on the back of Greek debt woes, with sales of euro-yen seen as yen demand seen as a proxy bet for speculated yuan appreciation. Dollar-yen was pulled down to an early low of Y93.17 (NY low Y93.15), the rate again seen meeting decent demand placed ahead of Y93.00 which cushioned.

Yen pairs were provided with a reprieve as Aussie-yen demand was prompted by the release of Aussie jobs data, confirming strong forecasts. A Japanese security house was a noted strong buyer of dollar-yen in the recovery, cited for taking the rate up to highs of Y93.45. Euro-yen has struggled to recover, with offers toward Y124.50 seen providing resistance, with stops below Y124.00 possibly seen as an enticing target. Downside stops in dollar-yen noted on a break of Y92.90 but importers likely to have further demand interest toward Y93.00 ahead with Y93.04 seen as their average rate for year end.

RES 4: Y97.52/79 76.4% retracement, High 7 August
RES 3: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug 2009, 61.8% retracement of 2009 decline
RES 2: Y94.72/78 76.4% retracement of Aug/Nov decline, High 2 April
RES 1: Y93.50 Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud

CURRENT LEVEL: Y93.22

SUP 1: Y92.86 38.2% retracement of 18 Mar advance
SUP 2: Y92.23/27 38.2% of 4 March and 50% of 18 March rallies
SUP 3: Y92.00 21-day moving average
SUP 4: Y91.40/67 200-day moving average, Support line 4 Mar

Cable
Close NY at $1.5248 and was on a downward track into early Asian trade Thursday. Sterling sales gathered pace as early market reacted to a Telegraph piece noting the BIS warning over UK debt. Rate pushed down to a session low of $1.5212 before meeting profit take demand into the dip. Further sales into early Europe has taken rate through $1.5200, extending the corrective pullback to $1.5176, currently trading around $1.5185.

Bid interest noted from around $1.5165, with interest extending to $1.5150, a break to allow for a deeper move toward $1.5130. Hearing in early Europe that stops are seen building in the area between $1.5130/25. Resistance $1.5220, more toward $1.5235. BOE rate decision today though no change expected. Ahead of this event we will see the release of Halifax house price data at 0800GMT and UK IP data at 0830GMT.

RES 4: $1.5420/22 61.8% of Feb/Mar decline, 38.2% of 2010 decline
RES 3: $1.5410 Current top of the daily Bollinger band
RES 2: $1.5382 High 17 Mar
RES 1: $1.5320 High 5 April

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5225

SUP 1: $1.5125 21-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.4840 Current base of the daily Bollinger band
SUP 3: $1.4783/98 Recovery low 1 March, Low 25 Mar
SUP 4: $1.4619/59 Low 29 Apr, High 23 Feb

New Scenario on GBPJPY

Bounce at Trend Line

NordMarkets Morning FX - October 15

MORNING FX

BRIEFING
The dollar remained under pressure into Asian trade Thursday, though early rally in dollar-yen (due to Gotobi Day demand into the Tokyo fix being larger than normal) provided an early anomaly. Wednesday strong earnings report from JPM, followed by better than expected US retail sales helped to boost risk on trades/dollar sales in this session, with the later release of FOMC Minutes had little new info but showed that doves still outweigh hawks which will boost market perception that the Fed remains an expected laggard for rate hikes. Release of strong NZ CPI data provided the Kiwi with another boost, the move inturn prompting further movement into risk trades to the detriment of the dollar. Euro-dollar progressed higher, moving above $1.4950 to $1.4961 with rate retaining a firm feel into early Europe. Focus on $1.5000. Dollar-yen posted highs at Y89.66 into the fix before French name sales reversed the move to take it back to Y89.27. Cable extended to $1.6070 in Asia (Europe high now $1.6075). GS and Citi Q3 earnings today's highlight along with EZ and US inflation.

EURO
Euro-dollar opened in Asia around $1.4930 with risk on trades boosted by Wednesday's release of stronger than expected JPM Q3 earnings, US retail sales data, with FOMC Minutes continuing to suggest that the US will lag other major economies in hiking rates as doves appear to still outweigh hawks. Euro-dollar initially eased to mark session lows at $1.4920, as dollar-yen saw strong Gotobi Day demand into the Tokyo fix, but quick reversal after prompted renewed pressure on the dollar. Strong NZ CPI data, along with hawkish comments from RBA Stevens further boosted risk on trades, with commodity currencies again the main beneficiaries as they led the move against the dollar. Euro-dollar found the impetus to move above Wednesday highs at $1.4948 to take out suggested barriers at $1.4950, the move peaking in Asia at $1.4961. Further demand into early Europe has extended move to $1.4967. Offers are reported in place from around $1.4970, with further interest seen positioned ahead of option barriers at $1.5000. Support at $1.4920. GS and Citi Q3 earnings in focus, along with EZ and US inflation data.

Euro-dollar bulls remain focused on the recent bull-flag target, which nearly matches the $1.4968 level that capped topside of the pair in Nov 2007. The daily studies are still pointing higher and below historic levels of reversal, although trade is now pushing outside of the Bollinger band, which sends a warning against expecting rapid gains.

RES 4: $1.5163 76.4% of $1.6039 to $1.2329
RES 3: $1.5070 2.0% moving average envelope
RES 2: $1.4993 Top of October channel
RES 1: $1.4968/72 Major high Nov 2007, Bull flag

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4955

SUP 1: $1.4845 High 23 Sept, 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.4720 21-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.4500 Base of Bollinger band
SUP 4: $1.4480 Low 2 Oct


YEN
Dollar-yen closed the US session around Y89.45, with euro-yen holding gains within the Ichimoku Cloud at Y133.50. Traders noted model names buying the cross prior to the Tokyo open, lifting the rate through stops at Y133.75/85 en-route to the day's highs at Y133.91. Dollar-yen found larger than usual fixing demand thanks in part to Gotobi day, taking the pair up to Y89.67. A French name was the noted seller here, sending the rate back down to the day's lows at Y89.27 in quick time. Balance of the session was well contained as dollar-yen struggled to get back above Y89.50 and the cross held under earlier highs, pullbacks so far contained around the Y133.50 area. Stops said to be building above Y134.00 from system accounts, while techs note the top of the Ichimoku Cloud comes in at Y133.96 today, together with the 50% retrace of the August-October sell-off at Y133.90. Dollar-yen bids come in on approach to Y89.00, while offers are found at Y89.90/00 with stops at Y90.05.

Dollar-yen is attempting to break out of the first of it's broad falling ranges and tested the 21-DMA and Kijun lines to Y90.44. However, daily studies are failing to provide significant support to the recovery, keeping the overall downtrend in play. Meanwhile, the daily studies remain bullish in euro-yen as the cross tests major resistance levels at Y133.90/00, including the 100-DMA, top of the Ichimoku cloud and a 50% retracement of the post-August decline.

RES 4: Y92.53 Failure high 21 Sept
RES 3: Y91.75 38.2% retracement of Aug/Oct decline
RES 2: Y90.44 High 12 Oct, Kijun line of the Ichimoku cloud
RES 1: Y90.00 21-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: Y89.46

SUP 1: Y89.20 Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud
SUP 2: Y88.01 Low 7 Oct
SUP 3: Y87.36/51 Channel base from May 22, Trend line from Apr 1995
SUP 4: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan


STERLING
Definitive moves up on the back of the much better than expected UK employment data, yesterdays 1.6020 level seem to work intraday, clearly breached now and we now see 1.6120/30 level offers based on a double top, but I think we also need to be mindful of the1.6020/30 for demand. There is a bit of buying interest as I write and .9270 through.9300 in EUR/GBP which may curb a concerted move to the 1.6130 in cable, should we breach this look out for 1.6190. Following this theme, watch .9270 as support in EUR/GBP, a breach of this may give GBP more bid impetus

Cable was capped by the 21-DMA on Weds but this level is being broken at $1.6035 as daily studies point higher and momentum recovers the zero line. Close above 21-DMA would encourage bulls and be the first such close since Sep 17. Tuesday's high in euro-sterling matched that of March 27th and briefly popped over the Bollinger band top, which is currently at stg0.9395. The 21-DMA provides the main support, back at stg0.9180, although the previous highs should provide support ahead of there. Studies are neutral.

RES 4: $1.6330/45 Low 23 Sept, 100-day moving average, Bollinger top
RES 3: $1.6224 50% retracement of $1.6740/$1.5708
RES 2: $1.6117/34 High 8 Oct, Low 1 Sept, Spike high 30 Sep, Low 21 Sept
RES 1: $1.6055 21-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.6102

SUP 1: $1.6000 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5708/21 Low 13 Oct, High Dec 2008 & 50.0% of $1.44 advance
SUP 3: $1.5688 Daily Bollinger band base, 38.2% of $1.3500 to $1.7041
SUP 4: $1.5519 Low 21 May



OPTIONS AND MORE
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut
* Euro-dollar; $1.5000, $1.4850
* Dollar-yen; Y89.75, Y90.00, Y88.40
* Euro-yen; Y132.90, Y135.00, Y135.30
* Cable; $1.6060
* Aussie; $0.9200

Elsewhere, Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Thursday's session higher, boosted by the overnight gains in the U.S. markets. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 178.44 points, or 1.77%, to stand at 10238.65. The broader-based TOPIX was 9.23 points higher at 903.57. Volume for the Nikkei constituents totalled a preliminary 1.422 bln shares, with 186 issues trading higher, 27 lower and 12 unchanged.

DAILY CALENDAR
European data sees EMU Sep final CPI/HICP data at 0900GMT, which is expected to confirm the preliminary release.

At the same time, Germany's leading economic research institutes release joint economic forecasts, in Berlin.

At 1125GMT, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet gives the opening speech at a banking conference, in Frankfurt.

US data starts at 1230GMT with the weekly jobless claims, CPI data and also the NY Fed Empire State Survey for October.

Jobless claims are expected to fall 1,000 to 520,000 in the October 10 week. There should still be seasonal adjustment difficulties related to the beginning of the new quarter.

Analysts expect September CPI to rise only 0.1% as gasoline pump prices should have reversed part of their August gain. Core CPI is also expected to rise 0.1%, with back-to-school sales a key factor.

The NY Fed Empire State Index is expected to fall to a reading of 17.5 in October, but continuing to indicate expansion.

Back in Europe, at 1315GMT, ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber speaks on "Monetary Policy in Times of Financial Crisis", in Muenster, Germany.

US data continues at 1400GMT, when the Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to fall to a reading of 12.5 in October, but still indicating continued growth. This is followed by the weekly EIA Natural Gas and Crude Oil Stocks data at 1430GMT.

At 1700GMT, Bundesbank Board member Thilo Sarrazin delivers a speech on financial markets, in Berlin.

Later in the US, at 2015GMT, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner participates in a forum hosted by The Economist at PACE University in New York. Around the same time, at 2030GMT, M2 Money Supply data is also due.

NordMarkets Morning FX - October 14

MORNING FX
BRIEFING
The dollar remained under pressure into Asian trade Weds with late earnings results from Intel and CSX boosting equities, in turn favouring risk on trades to the main benefit of commodity currencies. Kiwi gained an added boost from release of strong house sales data, following on from comments from the RBNZ that it will start removing some liquidity measures. Interest rate differentials remain in focus, the forecasts for the removal of liquidity measures the main driver with tonight's FOMC Minutes to draw attention as markets seek clarity on the Fed's current position on exit strategies. Euro-dollar seen reluctant to take advantage of this further dollar weakness, but reports of overnight 0200GMT fix demand said to have provided the added upside push, the rate extending recent gains to $1.4891. Cable remained firm, extending gains to $1.5982 following BOE Bean comments and euro-sterling fix sales Tuesday. Yen firm on Mid East demand and comments from a Dep FinMin suggesting no intervention. UK jobs data at 0830GMT, EMU IP at 0900GMT and US retail sales at 1230GMT the main data focus.

EURO
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.4850 with rate holding a basic early range of $1.4840/50 ($1.4839 session low) before nudging higher as strong sales of dollar-yen led the pressure on the dollar. Talk also suggested that a decent sized RHS euro-dollar fix order was to be done at the 0200GMT fix and provided added upside impetus, taking the rate through Tuesday highs at $1.4876 to $1.4885. Pullbacks found support ahead of $1.4870 ahead of the European open with rate able to extend session highs to $1.4891, early Europe taking it on to $1.4895. Traders note that $1.4900 holds strike interest, with stops above said to have been building and have become an early focus. A break above $1.4900 expected to initially meet profit take selling ahead of $1.4910, to counter some of the stops buys, but a clear to open move on toward $1.4950/60 ahead of $1.4980. Traders note that $1.5000 and $1.5100 one month strikes have been popular with spec and discretionary names. Support remains in place between $1.4875/70, a break to allow for a deeper move toward $1.4840.

RES 4: $1.5163 76.4% of $1.6039 to $1.2329
RES 3: $1.5020 2.0% moving average envelope
RES 2: $1.4968 Major high Nov 2007
RES 1: $1.4908 High Aug 22 2008

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4885

SUP 1: $1.4800 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.4700 21-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.4530 Base of Bollinger band
SUP 4: $1.4480 Low 2 Oct


YEN
The BoJ left its overnight call rate target unchanged as expected, making no reference to corporate funding measures in its statement, despite speculation in the press that some support could have been withdrawn. The Bank upgraded its view on the Japanese economy, saying it is recovering and financial conditions are showing signs of improvement. Currency direction was driven by ongoing dollar weakness in the Asian session as the dollar-index hit fresh year-to-date lows. Early highs were hit at Y89.89 before Tokyo names sold the pair down, Mid-east names then adding weight as the rate triggered stops through Y89.50/40 down to initial lows at Y89.25. A comment from the Japanese deputy finmin about not intervening in the fx market just because of the yen's rise sparked fresh selling as dollar-yen tested bids into Y89.00. Slippage extended to Y88.83 late in the session, euro-yen following a similar path, shedding 125-points down to Y132.25, with both pairs remaining heavy into early Europe. Light bids seen at Y88.60/50, with a break set to expose last week's lows at Y88.01 ahead of barriers at Y88.00 and Y87.00.

RES 4: Y92.53 Failure high 21 Sept
RES 3: Y91.75 38.2% retracement of Aug/Oct decline
RES 2: Y90.44/50 High 12 Oct, Kijun line of the Ichimoku cloud
RES 1: Y90.10 21-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: Y89.13

SUP 1: Y89.10/20 5-DMA & Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud
SUP 2: Y88.01 Low 7 Oct
SUP 3: Y87.43/51 Channel base from May 22, Trend line from Apr 1995
SUP 4: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan


STERLING
Opened Asia around $1.5935 with early trade contained within a range of $1.5915/35 as it consolidated Tuesday's gains from intraday lows of $1.5708 (aided by BOE Bean's comments and the well reported large euro-sterling fix sell order). Rate extended lows to $1.5902 before rallying back, the move up seen as the dollar came under pressure with strong dollar-yen sales leading the move. Rate pushed through Tuesday's NY high at $1.5930 to $1.5945 before meeting resistance ahead of $1.5950. Rate dipped back to $1.5925/20 before picking up fresh demand which allowed rate to edge on to session highs at $1.5966, early Europe taking it on to $1.5995. Rate currently trades around $1.5990 with the $1.6000 level remaining in view. Traders note that a large buy of overnight $1.6000 strikes was seen in late trade Tuesday. Offers seen ahead of this level, extending to $1.6010, a break to open a move toward $1.6050/60 ahead of stronger interest at $1.6080. Support seen at $1.5950/40, stronger between $1.5925/20 ahead of $1.5900.

RES 4: $1.6330/45 Low 23 Sept, 100-day moving average
RES 3: $1.6224 50% retracement of $1.6740/$1.5708
RES 2: $1.6117/34 High 8 Oct, Low 1 Sept, Spike high 30 Sep, Low 21 Sept
RES 1: $1.6055 21-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5982

SUP 1: $1.5920 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5708/21 Low 13 Oct, High Dec 2008 & 50.0% of $1.44 advance
SUP 3: $1.5660/88 Daily Bollinger band base, 38.2% of $1.3500 to $1.7041
SUP 4: $1.5519 Low 21 May



OPTIONS AND MORE
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,

* Euro-dollar; $1.4900, $1.4860, $1.4850, $1.4800, $1.4985
* Dollar-yen; Y89.00, Y89.55, Y90.00, Y90.50
* Euro-yen; Y130.00
* Euro-sterling; stg0.9400
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0250

Elsewhere, JJapan's benchmark stock indices ended Wednesday's session lower, pressured by the stronger yen, although off the session lows seen in the wake of the Bank of Japan's policy decision. The Bank of Japan's policy board, as widely expected, voted unanimously Wednesday to leave rates unchanged at 0.1%. The BOJ didn't mention whether it will let outright purchases of commercial paper and corporate bonds from banks expire on Dec. 31 as scheduled. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 16.35 points, or 0.16%, to stand at 10060.21. The broader-based TOPIX was 7.06 points lower at 894.34, as the financials weighed. Volume for the Nikkei constituents totalled a preliminary 1.431 bln shares, with 72 issues trading higher, 141 lower and 12 unchanged.

DAILY CALENDAR
Still to come from Japan, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa holds a news conference at 0630GMT.

European data also starts at 0630GMT with the Bank of France Sep retail trade survey.

The UK releases labour market data at 0830GMT with the claimant count expected to come in at 25K.

Given that unemployment is a lagging indicator, the apparent recent slowing in the rate of increase appears to be coming far quicker than in previous economic cycles. Indeed, it is worth bearing in mind that the claimant count increased for thirty one successive months in the aftermath of the 1990's recession and the rate of increase did not slow to current levels until after two years. This would then suggest the unprecedented cut in interest rates as well as government intervention may have helped ameliorate the cull in jobs. Nonetheless, the substantial contraction in GDP growth in recent quarters looks set to leave unemployment not peaking until mid-2010, the latest time when the next general election can take place.

Core-European data sees EMU industrial output at 0900GMT, which is expected to come in at 1.2% m/m, -15.5% y/y.

Such an uptick in industrial output across the region for August would follow the rise in production over the month already reported for Germany (+1.7%), France (+1.8%) and Italy (+7.0%).

US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index, while at 1230GMT retail sales and the export, import price index is due.

Retail sales are expected to fell 2.1% in September. Industry light vehicle sales plunged in the month after the August surge. In addition, gasoline prices fell slightly and should offset gains in other categories. Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts are expected to rise 0.3%.

At 1315GMT, ECB Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi delivers a speech on "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," in Freiburg, Germany.

US data continues at 1400GMT, when business inventories are expected to fall 0.9% in August. Factory inventories were already reported fell 0.8%, while wholesale inventories fell 1.3% in the month.

Later, at 1800GMT, the U.S. Treasury is expected to post a $31.0 billion deficit in September compared with the $45.7 billion surplus in September 2008. The full fiscal year deficit is much deeper than the previous year's level due to the fiscal stimulus packages and a dip in tax receipts.

Finally, at 1830GMT, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo and FDIC Chair Sheila Bair testify before the Senate Banking Committee on the state of the banking industry.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

NordMarkets Morning FX - October 6

MORNING FX
BRIEFING
The greenback was under widespread sell pressure in the Asian session as the market reacted to a press article in the UK's Independent newspaper, suggesting Arab states are in secret talks with China, Russia, Japan and France to end the use of the dollar for oil trading and move towards a basket of currencies, "within 9 years". Euro-dollar was able to rally steadily over the course of the day from $1.4646 to $1.4724, with early European dealing seeing follow-through buying as the rate pushes on to $1.4734. Dollar-yen dropped below Y89.00 before finding a base at Y88.90, while cable moved back to $1.6000, though sterling again lagged the euro move as the cross extended its recent recovery above stg0.9200. Elsewhere Australia became the first major industrialized nation to tighten policy as the RBA hiked 25bps as well as signalling more to come. Aussie traded up to $0.8820/25 initially, subsequently moving towards $0.8880 and remaining buoyed into European trade.

EURO
Euro-dollar moved to a $1.4670 high in the NY session, closing the day around $1.4655. Early lows were made into the Asian session at $1.4646 before the greenback came under pressure on the UK Independent newspaper article suggesting Arab States were in talks with China, Russia, Japan and France to end oil trading in dollars within nine years and switch to a basket of currencies. Leveraged and macro accounts were the noted buyers as euro-dollar moved back above $1.4700 before encountering some profit taking at $1.4710. Underlying demand remained firm however, with euro-dollar able to push on to a $1.4724 session high after the RBA hikes Aussie rates. Renewed demand into early Europe has seen stops triggered on the break of $1.4730 as the rate moves on towards $1.4750 at writing. Offers seen in this region, as well as the 76.4% retrace of the September-October sell-off at $1.4758. Key area seen as the recent double-day highs just shy of $1.4850.

YEN
Dollar-yen closed Monday towards the bottom-end of its NY range around Y89.55, with euro-yen holding steady into the close around Y131.25. With the dollar under pressure on the Independent newspaper article in the Asian session, dollar-yen was knocked back from an early Y89.65 high, dropping under Y89.00 and printing initial lows at Y88.97. A Japanese bank was a noted buyer of dollars at the fix but found dollar supply overwhelming, with the rate remaining contained under Y89.20 into the afternoon session. Late Asia saw fresh lows being hit at Y88.90, with another round of dollar sales at the European open seeing a marginal extension to Y88.97. Options accounts and prop desks are said to be looking to pick up this dip, with stronger demand noted at Y88.60, ahead of the recent spike lows at Y88.28. Offers back at Y89.20 in small, more at Y89.60/65 and at Y90.00 with stops still lurking above the latter level.

EURUSD - TECHNICALS
Daily studies are beginning to tweak higher for euro-dollar but buy-signals are yet to be confirmed, despite the break higher out of the recent falling range.

RES 4: $1.4862 100% proj of Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep 2008
RES 3: $1.4845 Sep high
RES 2: $1.4802 High 24 Sept, Bollinger band top
RES 1: $1.4758 76.4% retracement of Sep pullback

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4733

SUP 1: $1.4630/45 5, 21-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.4480 Low 2 Oct
SUP 3: $1.4445/52 50.0% of $1.4046 to $1.4845, Support line from Sept 21
SUP 4: $1.4397 55-DMA, High 27 Aug

GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
Cable's underperformance in the overnight dollar move heightens the risk that the pair is forming a bear-flag, where any break of $1.5770 would risk deeper losses. However, this comes amid a bull-cross for the daily stochastic study. While $1.5770 remains the low, the main Fibonacci retracements are $1.6141, $1.6255, $1.6369 and $1.6406 with more minor Fibonacci levels at $1.6119, $1.6201, $1.6303.

RES 4: $1.6467 High 23 Sep
RES 3: $1.6330/40 Low 23 Sept, 100-day moving average
RES 2: $1.6240 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.6127/34 Spike high 30 Sep, Low 21 Sept

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5976

SUP 1: $1.5803 Low 8 June, 1 Oct
SUP 2: $1.5770 Low 28 Sept
SUP 3: $1.5721 High Dec 2008 & 50.0% of $1.44 advance
SUP 4: $1.5688 38.2% of $1.3500 to $1.7041

USDJPY - TECHNICALS
Recovery remains below the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud at Y90.00 with daily studies not at all convincing of a stronger recovery. Key topside level is at Y91.75, which was the major low seen in July and Fibonacci levels are Y91.94, Y93.05, although for now, falling range remains.

RES 4: Y92.53 Failure high 21 Sept
RES 3: Y91.75/94 Major low July, 38.2% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 2: Y90.90 21-DMA, Kijun line of Ichimoku cloud
RES 1: Y90.00 Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud

CURRENT LEVEL: Y89.27

SUP 1: Y88.23 Low 25 Sep
SUP 2: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan
SUP 3: Y86.05 Monthly high June 1995
SUP 4: Y84.50 Monthly low July 1995

DAILY CALENDAR
European data for Tuesday starts at 0645GMT with the August central government deficit data from France.

UK data sees the 0800GMT release of Sep SMMT Car Registrations followed at 0830GMT by manufacturing data.

The wider measure of industrial production saw the first back-to-back monthly rise since September 2006 last month and is expected to post a third monthly rise in August, with forecasts at 0.2% m/m, -8.7% y/y.

Meanwhile, a boost in motor vehicle production from the car scrappage scheme could well see manufacturing output rise further with the median there looking for 0.3% m/m, -9.3% y/y. Given the unprecedented deterioration seen over the past eighteen months, it is plausible that manufacturing output may continue to see firm data in coming months. Indeed, in theory industrial production should also be helped ahead as companies slow the pace of destocking and begin to replenish depleted inventories. Moreover, the unprecedented loosening in monetary policy should support domestic demand whilst trade-weighted sterling still remains relatively competitive. However, it is still questionable how sustainable any recovery will be into 2010 given that bank lending fundamentally remains tight.

At 1000GMT, ECB Governing Council member Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez is due to address the Spanish Parliament, while also today, there are the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, in Istanbul.

US data starts at 1145GMT with the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data for the 3 Oct week, followed by the Redbook for the same week at 1255GMT.

At 1400GMT, the US Energy Information Agency releases the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook and the Winter Heating Fuels overview.

Later data sees Treasury STRIPS at 1900GMT and the weekly ABC News Survey at 2100GMT.

Also, into early tomorrow morning, at 0145GMT, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig is due to deliver a speech to an economic forum sponsored by the bank's Denver branch.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

NordMarkets Morning FX

BRIEFING
European open: Euro opens the European session firm, euro-dollar placing reported resistance between $1.4685/1.4700 under early pressure, challenging freshly posted 2009 highs at $1.4686 (NY). Asian traders had noted Asian sovereign names linked to supply in this area, with a US money bank noted sitting ahead of a much publicized barrier at $1.4700. Euro-sterling provided a focus in Asia trade, the rate extending its recent recovery through a reported barrier at stg0.8900, to take it on to stg0.8918, with added buys into Europe extending the move to stg0.89305. This move reflecting the ongoing pressure on sterling, with cable struggling to take advantage of dollar pressure with market focusing on the downside while rate holds below $1.6510/15, a break and clear of $1.6400 suggested to target $1.6285. Aussie found decent demand interest on dips with focus set on resistance at $0.8700, Kiwi resistance at $0.7100. Dollar-yen was locked in a tight range around Y91.00. UK jobs data (0830GMT) and eurozone inflation (0900GMT) this morning's focus, US CPI at 1230GMT, IP and Cap.Ut. at 1315GMT later.

EURO
Euro-dollar pened Asia around $1.4665, off late NY recovery highs (fresh 2009 highs) at $1.4686 after rate had seen post retail sales lows of $1.4561. Rate marked lows at $1.4656 in early trade before model account buys from below $1.4670 took rate up to $1.4680. Move met decent Asian sovereign sales (several names noted) that eased rate back to $1.4662 but dip attracted willing buyers to take it back, marking session highs at $1.4684. Further sales from same names eased rate to $1.4667 only to meet renewed dip demand that was lifting the rate back into Europe, with added buys allowing rate to retest Tuesday's high at $1.4686. Pressure continues, currently seen chipping way at the reported resistance, said to extend toward an option barrier at $1.4700, a US money bank said to have offers placed ahead. Stops noted above the figure, which if triggered expected to open a move toward $1.4720. One Swiss name has suggested fading rallies into the area between $1.4720/50. Bids seen between $1.4660/50.

YEN
Dollar-yen breaks below overnight lows at Y90.78 as market reacts to new FinMin Fujii comments that he is opposed to FX intervention if forex moves are gradual, the rate extending its base through support at Y90.80/70 (overnight low Y90.78) to Y90.49. Rate had traded with an underlying soggy tone through the Asian session, the rate pivoting around Y91.00 in a relatively tight range of Y90.78/91.17. The recently reported barrier at Y90.00 seen in focus again though expect decent demand to emerge around Y90.50, stronger between Y90.20/00 (Y90.18 recent low). Euro-yen trade in Asia was contained within Y133.26/72, with moves dictated mainly by euro-dollar action. Rate has broken down to Y132.96 in early Europe following those reported Fujii comments, but continued euro-dollar demand seen tempering this react move. Euro-yen bids seen to Y132.80, a break to open a deeper move toward Y132.55/45. Offers Y133.70/80.

USDYEN - TECHNICALS
Dollar-yen downside risks persist following inability to break above the Tenkan line of the Ichiomoku cloud at Y91.75, which also coincides with major low seen in July. Whilst this caps the risk is on a revisit of the double-day low at Y90.18/21. The daily studies whilst o/sold, are still above previous reversal levels - Risk seen to Y89.79.

RES 4: Y95.31/33 Base of the Ichimoku cloud, 100-day moving average
RES 3: Y94.74 200-day moving average
RES 2: Y93.00 21-day moving average
RES 1: Y91.26/75 5-day moving average, Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud

SUP 1: Y90.76 61.8% of Y90.23 to Y91.63
SUP 2: Y90.18/21 Double-day low Sept 11, 14
SUP 3: Y89.67/79 50% proj of the Aug/Dec downmove, Proj channel base
SUP 4: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan

EURUSD - TECHNICALS
Euro-dollar bulls are seen sharpening horns for fresh assault on new yearly highs as the daily studies continue to point higher and 2.00% moving average envelope widens further and now valued at $1.4793. Initial resistance is seen at the daily Bollinger band top at $1.4699.

RES 4: $1.4851/62 100% projection of the Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep
RES 3: $1.4793 2.00% moving average envelope
RES 2: $1.4721 High 18 Dec
RES 1: $1.4699 Daily Bollinger band top

SUP 1: $1.4623 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.4517/20 Low 14 Sept, Former resistance line from 3 June
SUP 3: $1.4447 August high
SUP 4: $1.4388 21-day moving average

GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
Cable's sell-off triggered a break of neckline of head-&-shoulders pattern on hourly charts at $1.6545 -- targets measured move to $1.6303. In addition, price action has priced below the 21 & 55-day moving average's and next support seen at $1.6324/54. M/t risk is seen to $1.6168/95 -- channel base from June 8 and the 100-day moving average.

RES 4: $1.7044/52 High 5 August, November 2005 low
RES 3: $1.6822 76.4% of August pullback
RES 2: $1.6716 Resistance line from July 2008 high
RES 1: $1.6657 Hourly high

SUP 1: $1.6324/54 Low 4 Sept, 61.8% of $1.6116 to $1.6740
SUP 2: $1.6239 Minor low 3 Sep
SUP 3: $1.6168/95 Channel base from June 8, 100-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.6033 Low 13 July

DAILY CALENDAR
European data kicks off at 0700GMT, when Spain's Jul service sector data is released.

At 0730GMT, the Riksbank is scheduled to publish the minutes of Sept 2 monetary policy meeting, whilst EC Economic & Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia speaks at the Annual Eurostat conference, in Brussels

Back to Italy at 0800GMT, with the release of August's final CPI/HICP data.

At 0820GMT, ECB Executive Board member Jose Manuel Gonzlez-Pramo is slated to give a speech on "Reading the Present to Prepare the Future" at Eurostat Conference, in Brussels

In the UK, the monthly employment report is due at 0830GMT. August claimant count, Juky average earnings and the July ILO unemployment rate are all out. Analysts are looking for a further pick-up in August's claimant count by 25,000, leaving the claimant count rate at 5.0%, versus 4.9% in July. They are also looking for a further pick-up in the more closely watched ILO unemployment rate to 8.0% in July from 7.8% in June

Back in Europe, ast 0900GMT, the EMU August final CPI/HICP data is released. At the sa,e time, the German Retail Association (HDE) releases new retail sales forecasts, in Duesseldorf

US data kicks off at 1100GMT, the US MBA mortgage application index for the Sept 11 week is set for release.

The main release is at 1230GMT, when the August Consumer Price Index is released. Analysts expect August CPI to rise 0.4% as gasoline pump prices rebounded slightly. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.1%.

Also due at 1230GMT is the second quarter US current account data and Canada's July 2009 manufacturing survey.

This is followed at 1300GMT with the release of the July International Capital System data from teh Treasury. At 1315GMT, the Aug Industrial production, capacity utilization data are released.

Industrial production is expected to rise 0.7% in August after posting a 0.5% increase in July. The manufacturing sector may get another boost this month due to brisk auto sales. Factory payrolls fell 63,000 in the month, with auto production jobs down 15,000. The factory workweek held steady at 39.8 hours. The ISM production index rose to 61.9. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 69.0%.

Oil markets will be anticipating the usual inventories stocks at 1430GMT, when the Sept 11EIA Crude Oil Stocks is released.

Lastly, at 1700GMT, the Sept Housing Market Index (NAHB) is released.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

Very Strong Barrier

Can you see how many times GJ try to break that barrier? so if that level break could be thousand pips will come... just my opinion :)

Just compare with your own and stay play safe
ICT

Latest Statement

Strong Barrier

We can see that GJ still have no strong power to break out this barrier (blue line).. what should we do? waiting for break out? or go short now?..

If u ask me, i'll go short.. and Put SL above that blue line

Always play safe with your equity
ICT

Important Level

I think this's important level for GJ, if that level break that could be a nice one.. but now me prefer go short, just incase if that level break so put SL above that level, and I'll be go long when it happen.. Compare with your own... dont take any risk which you cant accept...

ICT - Always Play Safe

Lil analysis for next week..

This's my lil analysis for next week, use this just to compare with your own...

Always Play Safe
ICT

New tunnel for nex week

I'm pretty sure thats new tunnel already exist... just see for the next week. Now let us enjoy the nice weekend... see you next week all...

've nice weekend, may GOD bless us

Wait for a moment...

Now.. we just can wait till the other moments come... "all we need is just a little patience" - GnR Said that words...

Hope not today :)

Latest Statement

New marketiva printscreen