NordMarkets Morning FX - October 16

MORNING FX

BRIEFING
The dollar remained under pressure into Asian trade Thursday, though early rally in dollar-yen (due to Gotobi Day demand into the Tokyo fix being larger than normal) provided an early anomaly. Wednesday strong earnings report from JPM, followed by better than expected US retail sales helped to boost risk on trades/dollar sales in this session, with the later release of FOMC Minutes had little new info but showed that doves still outweigh hawks which will boost market perception that the Fed remains an expected laggard for rate hikes. Release of strong NZ CPI data provided the Kiwi with another boost, the move inturn prompting further movement into risk trades to the detriment of the dollar. Euro-dollar progressed higher, moving above $1.4950 to $1.4961 with rate retaining a firm feel into early Europe. Focus on $1.5000. Dollar-yen posted highs at Y89.66 into the fix before French name sales reversed the move to take it back to Y89.27. Cable extended to $1.6070 in Asia (Europe high now $1.6075). GS and Citi Q3 earnings today's highlight along with EZ and US inflation.

EURO
Euro-dollar opened in Asia around $1.4930 with risk on trades boosted by Wednesday's release of stronger than expected JPM Q3 earnings, US retail sales data, with FOMC Minutes continuing to suggest that the US will lag other major economies in hiking rates as doves appear to still outweigh hawks. Euro-dollar initially eased to mark session lows at $1.4920, as dollar-yen saw strong Gotobi Day demand into the Tokyo fix, but quick reversal after prompted renewed pressure on the dollar. Strong NZ CPI data, along with hawkish comments from RBA Stevens further boosted risk on trades, with commodity currencies again the main beneficiaries as they led the move against the dollar. Euro-dollar found the impetus to move above Wednesday highs at $1.4948 to take out suggested barriers at $1.4950, the move peaking in Asia at $1.4961. Further demand into early Europe has extended move to $1.4967. Offers are reported in place from around $1.4970, with further interest seen positioned ahead of option barriers at $1.5000. Support at $1.4920. GS and Citi Q3 earnings in focus, along with EZ and US inflation data.

Euro-dollar bulls remain focused on the recent bull-flag target, which nearly matches the $1.4968 level that capped topside of the pair in Nov 2007. The daily studies are still pointing higher and below historic levels of reversal, although trade is now pushing outside of the Bollinger band, which sends a warning against expecting rapid gains.



YEN
Dollar-yen closed the US session around Y89.45, with euro-yen holding gains within the Ichimoku Cloud at Y133.50. Traders noted model names buying the cross prior to the Tokyo open, lifting the rate through stops at Y133.75/85 en-route to the day's highs at Y133.91. Dollar-yen found larger than usual fixing demand thanks in part to Gotobi day, taking the pair up to Y89.67. A French name was the noted seller here, sending the rate back down to the day's lows at Y89.27 in quick time. Balance of the session was well contained as dollar-yen struggled to get back above Y89.50 and the cross held under earlier highs, pullbacks so far contained around the Y133.50 area. Stops said to be building above Y134.00 from system accounts, while techs note the top of the Ichimoku Cloud comes in at Y133.96 today, together with the 50% retrace of the August-October sell-off at Y133.90. Dollar-yen bids come in on approach to Y89.00, while offers are found at Y89.90/00 with stops at Y90.05.

Dollar-yen is attempting to break out of the first of it's broad falling ranges and tested the 21-DMA and Kijun lines to Y90.44. However, daily studies are failing to provide significant support to the recovery, keeping the overall downtrend in play. Meanwhile, the daily studies remain bullish in euro-yen as the cross tests major resistance levels at Y133.90/00, including the 100-DMA, top of the Ichimoku cloud and a 50% retracement of the post-August decline.



STERLING
Opened Asia around $1.6270, touched an early low of $1.6261 before recovering back, the upside gaining momentum on strong demand for sterling-yen from system funds, general yen sales seen into the Tokyo fix and triggered stops through stg0.9140/35 adding further weight. Cable moved above $1.6300, hitting a technical target level at $1.6350 (mentioned in bullets Thursday), with triggered stops through $1.6355 taking it on to $1.6401. Rate eased off highs, meeting renewed support at $1.6325 before recovering back to $1.6360/65. Early Europe took advantage of the late Asia recovery to take profit, easing the rate through earlier pullback lows to $1.6285. Rate currently trades around $1.6300. Support seen placed between $1.6285/80, stronger between $1.6260/50 ahead of $1.6210/00. Resistance seen at $1.6330, more toward $1.6350.

Cable was capped by the 21-DMA on Weds but this level is being broken at $1.6035 as daily studies point higher and momentum recovers the zero line. Close above 21-DMA would encourage bulls and be the first such close since Sep 17. Tuesday's high in euro-sterling matched that of March 27th and briefly popped over the Bollinger band top, which is currently at stg0.9395. The 21-DMA provides the main support, back at stg0.9180, although the previous highs should provide support ahead of there. Studies are neutral.




OPTIONS
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.4950, $1.4850, $1.4815
* Dollar-yen; Y91.00, Y90.70, Y91.30
* Cable; $1.6000
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0400, C$1.0275

DAILY CALENDAR
The main European events for Friday start at 0800GMT when ECB Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi delivers a speech, in Siena. This is followed by the EMU August trade balance at 0900GMT.

US data starts at 1300GMT with the Treasury International Capital System data, which is followed at 1315GMT by Industrial Production and Capacity Use data.

Industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% in September after posting stronger gains in the previous two months. Manufacturing production may decline this month due to a decline in auto sales.

Factory payrolls fell 51,000 in the month, with auto production jobs were down 4,000. The factory workweek slipped to 39.8 hours, while the ISM production index fell to 55.7. Capacity utilization is forecast to stay at 69.6%.

US data continues at 1355GMT, when The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to rise to a reading of 74.0 in early-October.

At 1400GMT, ECB Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi delivers another speech, this time in Florence.

At 1415GMT, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher delivers the keynote address at a conference co-sponsored by SMU's Cox School of Business in Dallas.

At 1530GMT, ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber delivers a speech, in Konstanz (Germany).

Late US data sees the 1800GMT Treasury Statement where the Treasury is expected to post a $31.0 billion deficit in September compared with the $45.7 billion surplus in September 2008. The full fiscal year deficit is much deeper than the previous year's level due to the fiscal stimulus packages and a dip in tax receipts.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

NordMarkets Morning FX - October 13

MORNING FX

BRIEFING
Tuesday sees the return of Tokyo and North American markets. Release overnight of stronger than expected data out of NZ (retail sales in Aug up 1.1% from -0.5%) and the UK (RICS house price balance jumping 22% in Sep from 11%, expectation 15%; BRC Sep retail sales up 4.9% y/y) provided some early interest as the Kiwi rallied, pulling Aussie higher with it though suggested option linked offers ahead of $0.9100 prevented further upside, the release of softer than expected NAB business condition data aiding the pullback. Cable was rising into the data release, with react taking it on to $1.5825 before reversing. Euro-dollar tracked the early buoyant tone though struggled to build on its brief show back above $1.48, the rate again said to have met decent supply from an ACB (seen in Monday trade with offers seen placed between $1.4800/20). Yen traded with a softer tone, dollar-yen edged to Y89.99 highs before meeting decent exporter supply ahead of Y90.00, but made a show above into early Europe. UK inflation data at 0830GMT and Germany ZEW at 0900GMT the morning's focus.

EURO
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.4775, having eased back from Monday's recovery highs at $1.4814 as move met decent supply from an ACB (offers said to have been placed to $1.4820). Rate got an early lift as risk on trades were boosted on the release of stronger than expected NZ retail sales data, the rate edged to $1.4801 but again said to have met supply from a US investment house along with further sales from an ACB which prevented further upside progress. Rate eased back before meeting support at $1.4763. Rate currently trades around $1.4785 into early European dealing. Offers said to remain in place between $1.4800/20, a break to open a move back toward $1.4845 (Sep23 high) with stronger offers noted from here and extending to $1.4850. This latter level holds option barrier interest, part of which rolls off today. Bids remain in place to $1.4760/55 with talk of stops positioned on a break below with further stops seen dotted down to $1.4730. ZEW at 0900GMT the morning's focus.

RES 3: 1.4969
RES 2: 1.4891
RES 1: 1.4833

PIVOT: 1.4755

SUP 1: 1.4697
SUP 2: 1.4619
SUP 3: 1.4561


YEN
Dollar-yen closed the holiday-thinned session Monday around Y89.85, while euro-yen failed to close inside the Ichimoku Cloud, easing back to Y132.75. Early dollar sales into the Asian session took dollar-yen down to the day's low at Y89.62 where CTA's were reportedly keen to buy the dip. Local names were then buyers on the way up, though gains were capped ahead of Y90.00 (Y89.99 high), with the rate then consolidating above Y89.70 over the balance of the Asian day. Euro-yen meanwhile traded in a tight Y132.54/92 range. Early European dealing has seen dollar-yen making a brief show back on a Y90 handle as euro-yen tries to gain a foothold above Y133.00. Next area of supply seen at Y90.20, more in the Y90.50 area from exporters with stops above. Demand said to come in back around Y89.50/55 from trust funds. Talk in Tokyo suggests exporters are more than 50% done with their hedging plans out to the end of March 2010, while larger than expected overseas sales could still raise hedging requirements in the near future. Euro-yen cloud base comes in at Y132.86 today, a close above still needed to negate downside risks.

RES 3: 91.18
RES 2: 90.81
RES 1: 90.35

PIVOT: 89.98

SUP 1: 89.52
SUP 2: 89.15
SUP 3: 88.69


STERLING
Recovery off early European lows at $1.5737 extends to $1.5765, the rate currently trading around $1.5762. East European sales into the late Asia recovery cited for the drop back in sterling, with talk also mentioning that more decent sized $1.2000 one year sterling puts have gone through. Offers seen placed between $1.5770/80, a break to open a move on toward $1.5795/05 ahead of $1.5825. Stronger offers remain in place between $1.5845/50. Support now at $1.5737, more toward Monday's lows at $1.5728 with stops reported on a break of $1.5720. Traders highlight a key tech level at $1.5688, 38.2% $1.35/1.7041.

RES 3: 1.6035
RES 2: 1.5957
RES 1: 1.5883

PIVOT: 1.5805

SUP 1: 1.5731
SUP 2: 1.5653
SUP 3: 1.5579



OPTIONS AND MORE
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.4850 Exotic; $1.4850 KO
* Dollar-yen; Y90.00, Y90.50, Y90.60
* Cable; $1.5850
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.5170, Chf1.5135
* Aussie; $0.9045, $0.9050, $0.9065

Elsewhere, Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Monday's session higher, consolidating gains above the 10,000 level. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 60.17 points, or 0.60%, to stand at 10076.56. The broader-based TOPIX was 3.57 points higher at 901.40. Volume for the Nikkei constituents totalled a preliminary 1.131 bln shares, with 132 issues trading higher, 76 lower and 17 unchanged.

DAILY CALENDAR
Events in Europe on Tuesday start at 0630GMT, when WTO head Pascal Lamy delivers a speech at an engineering industry conference, in Berlin.

European data starts with France at 0645GMT, with August HICP inflation data and also the current account.

ECB speakers start at 0800GMT, when ECB Governing Council member Patrick Honohan delivers the opening address to a Budget Perspectives 2010 Conference, in Dublin.

UK releases inflation data at 0830GMT along with the latest DCLG House Price Index.

UK CPI (HICP) is expected to come in at 0.2% m/m, 1.3% y/y with core CPI at 1.7% y/y and the RPIX measure at 1.2% y/y.

This means annual CPI inflation is likely to reach a nadir in September largely on the back of favourable base effects from utility bills given the rise in gas and electricity bills this time last year will drop out of the annual measure. However, the annual rate looks set to hit a bottom that is firmly above 1.0%, saving the Bank of England Governor from writing an open letter that was thought was more likely than not only a few months ago. Indeed, CPI has actually surprised on the upside two-thirds of the time over the past year. This may be partly due to the earlier drop in sterling limiting the decline in import prices.

The main core-European release will be the October ZEW data from Germany, which sees a fair split in analysts forecasts this month.

The ZEW expectations indicator, which measures financial experts' expectations of Germany's economic development in six months time, rose only mildly in September to 57.7 and forecasts are split between a slight fall and a rise for October. The 1.6-point rise in the index for Sep came after a 16.6-point surge in August and left the indicator at its highest level since April 2006 and over 30 points above its long-run average of 26.6. The current situation component also saw a milder rise in September following a stronger gain in August. Indeed, the indicator rose by just 3.2 points to -74. Nonetheless, September marks the fourth consecutive monthly rise in the index from its series low of -92.8 in May and it now sits at its highest level since December.

ECB speakers continue at 0900GMT, when ECB Executive Board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell delivers a speech on SEPA, in Brussels. At 1045GMT, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member Adam Posen speaks at Brussels think tank Bruegel on macroprudential supervision, while further UK speakers today include the Bank of England's Bean who is speaking at an event in London.

US data starts at 1145GMT with the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data, followed by the weekly Redbook at 1255GMT and the weekly MNI Capital Goods Index at 1330GMT. The IBD/TIPP Econ Optimism Index is released at 1400GMT, while further weekly data sees the 1430GMT release of the MNI Retail Trade Index.

Fed speakers and events start at 1715GMT, when New York Fed President William Dudley speaks to the Institute of International Bankers, while at 1745GMT, Fed Vice Chair Donald Kohn is due to address the NABE annual meeting, which is continuing in St. Louis.

Fed data sees the 1800GMT release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Later US data then sees the 2100GMT release of the weekly ABC News Survey.

The Bank of Japan also began it's two-day policy meeting today.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

NordMarkets Morning FX - October 6

MORNING FX
BRIEFING
The greenback was under widespread sell pressure in the Asian session as the market reacted to a press article in the UK's Independent newspaper, suggesting Arab states are in secret talks with China, Russia, Japan and France to end the use of the dollar for oil trading and move towards a basket of currencies, "within 9 years". Euro-dollar was able to rally steadily over the course of the day from $1.4646 to $1.4724, with early European dealing seeing follow-through buying as the rate pushes on to $1.4734. Dollar-yen dropped below Y89.00 before finding a base at Y88.90, while cable moved back to $1.6000, though sterling again lagged the euro move as the cross extended its recent recovery above stg0.9200. Elsewhere Australia became the first major industrialized nation to tighten policy as the RBA hiked 25bps as well as signalling more to come. Aussie traded up to $0.8820/25 initially, subsequently moving towards $0.8880 and remaining buoyed into European trade.

EURO
Euro-dollar moved to a $1.4670 high in the NY session, closing the day around $1.4655. Early lows were made into the Asian session at $1.4646 before the greenback came under pressure on the UK Independent newspaper article suggesting Arab States were in talks with China, Russia, Japan and France to end oil trading in dollars within nine years and switch to a basket of currencies. Leveraged and macro accounts were the noted buyers as euro-dollar moved back above $1.4700 before encountering some profit taking at $1.4710. Underlying demand remained firm however, with euro-dollar able to push on to a $1.4724 session high after the RBA hikes Aussie rates. Renewed demand into early Europe has seen stops triggered on the break of $1.4730 as the rate moves on towards $1.4750 at writing. Offers seen in this region, as well as the 76.4% retrace of the September-October sell-off at $1.4758. Key area seen as the recent double-day highs just shy of $1.4850.

YEN
Dollar-yen closed Monday towards the bottom-end of its NY range around Y89.55, with euro-yen holding steady into the close around Y131.25. With the dollar under pressure on the Independent newspaper article in the Asian session, dollar-yen was knocked back from an early Y89.65 high, dropping under Y89.00 and printing initial lows at Y88.97. A Japanese bank was a noted buyer of dollars at the fix but found dollar supply overwhelming, with the rate remaining contained under Y89.20 into the afternoon session. Late Asia saw fresh lows being hit at Y88.90, with another round of dollar sales at the European open seeing a marginal extension to Y88.97. Options accounts and prop desks are said to be looking to pick up this dip, with stronger demand noted at Y88.60, ahead of the recent spike lows at Y88.28. Offers back at Y89.20 in small, more at Y89.60/65 and at Y90.00 with stops still lurking above the latter level.

EURUSD - TECHNICALS
Daily studies are beginning to tweak higher for euro-dollar but buy-signals are yet to be confirmed, despite the break higher out of the recent falling range.

RES 4: $1.4862 100% proj of Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep 2008
RES 3: $1.4845 Sep high
RES 2: $1.4802 High 24 Sept, Bollinger band top
RES 1: $1.4758 76.4% retracement of Sep pullback

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4733

SUP 1: $1.4630/45 5, 21-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.4480 Low 2 Oct
SUP 3: $1.4445/52 50.0% of $1.4046 to $1.4845, Support line from Sept 21
SUP 4: $1.4397 55-DMA, High 27 Aug

GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
Cable's underperformance in the overnight dollar move heightens the risk that the pair is forming a bear-flag, where any break of $1.5770 would risk deeper losses. However, this comes amid a bull-cross for the daily stochastic study. While $1.5770 remains the low, the main Fibonacci retracements are $1.6141, $1.6255, $1.6369 and $1.6406 with more minor Fibonacci levels at $1.6119, $1.6201, $1.6303.

RES 4: $1.6467 High 23 Sep
RES 3: $1.6330/40 Low 23 Sept, 100-day moving average
RES 2: $1.6240 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.6127/34 Spike high 30 Sep, Low 21 Sept

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5976

SUP 1: $1.5803 Low 8 June, 1 Oct
SUP 2: $1.5770 Low 28 Sept
SUP 3: $1.5721 High Dec 2008 & 50.0% of $1.44 advance
SUP 4: $1.5688 38.2% of $1.3500 to $1.7041

USDJPY - TECHNICALS
Recovery remains below the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud at Y90.00 with daily studies not at all convincing of a stronger recovery. Key topside level is at Y91.75, which was the major low seen in July and Fibonacci levels are Y91.94, Y93.05, although for now, falling range remains.

RES 4: Y92.53 Failure high 21 Sept
RES 3: Y91.75/94 Major low July, 38.2% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 2: Y90.90 21-DMA, Kijun line of Ichimoku cloud
RES 1: Y90.00 Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud

CURRENT LEVEL: Y89.27

SUP 1: Y88.23 Low 25 Sep
SUP 2: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan
SUP 3: Y86.05 Monthly high June 1995
SUP 4: Y84.50 Monthly low July 1995

DAILY CALENDAR
European data for Tuesday starts at 0645GMT with the August central government deficit data from France.

UK data sees the 0800GMT release of Sep SMMT Car Registrations followed at 0830GMT by manufacturing data.

The wider measure of industrial production saw the first back-to-back monthly rise since September 2006 last month and is expected to post a third monthly rise in August, with forecasts at 0.2% m/m, -8.7% y/y.

Meanwhile, a boost in motor vehicle production from the car scrappage scheme could well see manufacturing output rise further with the median there looking for 0.3% m/m, -9.3% y/y. Given the unprecedented deterioration seen over the past eighteen months, it is plausible that manufacturing output may continue to see firm data in coming months. Indeed, in theory industrial production should also be helped ahead as companies slow the pace of destocking and begin to replenish depleted inventories. Moreover, the unprecedented loosening in monetary policy should support domestic demand whilst trade-weighted sterling still remains relatively competitive. However, it is still questionable how sustainable any recovery will be into 2010 given that bank lending fundamentally remains tight.

At 1000GMT, ECB Governing Council member Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez is due to address the Spanish Parliament, while also today, there are the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, in Istanbul.

US data starts at 1145GMT with the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data for the 3 Oct week, followed by the Redbook for the same week at 1255GMT.

At 1400GMT, the US Energy Information Agency releases the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook and the Winter Heating Fuels overview.

Later data sees Treasury STRIPS at 1900GMT and the weekly ABC News Survey at 2100GMT.

Also, into early tomorrow morning, at 0145GMT, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig is due to deliver a speech to an economic forum sponsored by the bank's Denver branch.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

NordMarkets Morning FX - October 5

MORNING FX
BRIEFING
The G7 failed to mention dollar weakness in its statement following the weekend meeting in Istanbul. Traders said dollar-yen and the crosses initially traded lower in Asia after Japanese Finmin Fujii comments, (if currencies show some excessive moves in a biased direction, we will take action). Dollar-yen was off 60-points to Y89.23 as euro-yen dropped back to Y130.50 before a strong bounce back as Tokyo names bought most pairs over the Tokyo fix. The market was caught short with liquidity reduced thanks to China and Australia holidays, with euro-yen putting on 100-points to Y131.65 as dollar-yen climbed back to Y89.90, while sterling-yen rallied 150-points to Y144.00. Yen moves dictated euro-dollar and cable direction, as these pairs climbed off $1.4582 and $1.5921 lows, euro moving back to $1.4648 as cable regained the $1.60 handle. Aussie was well bid after more hawkish domestic press articles ahead of tomorrow's RBA decision, moving up 100-points to $0.8740, with traders noting there is now a 50% chance of a 25bps hike priced in.

EURO
A volatile NY session Friday saw euro-dollar initially drop to $1.4480 in a knee-jerk reaction to the disappointing US employment data, before a strong bounce allowed the pair to close back on a $1.46 handle. Ireland's resounding "Yes" vote for the Lisbon Treaty over the weekend was seen as mildly euro supportive, though main flows into Asia were driven by moves in the crosses, as euro-yen initially came lower. Euro-dollar eased to early session lows at $1.4582 before a strong bounce in the cross pulled the pair back on to the $1.46 handle, momentum strong enough to move the rate back to $1.4648. Gains were capped ahead of Friday's $1.4650 NY high with the rate then consolidating above $1.4625 over the balance of the Asian day. Reserve interests are said to have been cushioning euro-dollar dips over recent sessions, while offers are seen into $1.4650, more around $1.4670 with stops above.

Turning to the technical picture, the euro is attempting to break out of a falling range from the 23 Sep highs with resistance strengthened by the 21-DMA at $1.4630 and 50% level at $1.4663. The daily stochastic study is still pointing lower and still well above oversold, while the 5 & 21-DMAs have now made a bear-cross. Initial support is the 5-DMA at $1.4595.

RES 4: $1.4845/62 Sep high, 100% proj of Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep 2008
RES 3: $1.4802 High 24 Sept
RES 2: $1.4663 50% retracement of the decline from $1.4845
RES 1: $1.4630 21-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4630

SUP 1: $1.4595 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.4445/47 50.0% of $1.4046 to $1.4845, High 5 Aug
SUP 3: $1.4380/97 55-DMA/ High 27 Aug
SUP 4: $1.4351 61.8% retracement of $1.4046 to $1.4845

YEN
Dollar-yen recovered initially NY losses Friday to close back around Y89.70, with euro-yen also bouncing to end the week around Y131.00. Finmin Fujii comments were again the focus into the Asian session following the G7 meeting, as he said "if currencies show some excessive moves in a biased direction, we will take action". Traders said dollar-yen and the crosses initially traded lower to Y89.23 and Y130.50 before the market seemingly took the Fujii comments as a veiled intervention threat, Tokyo names said to have been big buyers over the fix. Dollar-yen recovered back to trade just shy of Y90.00 as euro-yen traded up 100-points to Y131.65 and sterling-yen moved back to Y144.00. Dollar-yen easing back to trade around Y89.75 into the European session, traders now reporting stops on a break of Y90.00, more in the Y90.20/30 area. Note however exporter offers layered on a Y90 handle, ahead of larger stops on a break above Y91.00.

Dollar-yen's recovery remains below the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud and 5-DMA at Y89.85 and Y90.20 with daily studies not at all convincing of a stronger recovery. Key topside level is at Y91.75, which was the major low seen in July and Fibonacci levels are Y91.94, Y93.05. Meanwhile, the cross remains below the Ichimoku cloud base as daily studies remain weak and bears look for a test of the 200-day moving average at Y129.60.

RES 4: Y92.53 Failure high 21 Sept
RES 3: Y91.75/94 Major low July, 38.2% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 2: Y90.90/20 21-DMA, Kijun line of Ichimoku cloud
RES 1: Y90.20 Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud

CURRENT LEVEL: Y89.79

SUP 1: Y88.23 Low 25 Sep
SUP 2: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan
SUP 3: Y86.05 Monthly high June 1995
SUP 4: Y84.50 Monthly low July 1995

CABLE
Cable recovered from the $1.5805 NY low to close back above $1.5900 Friday, while, euro-sterling ended around stg0.9140. Flows into the Asian session were largely driven by sterling-yen as the cross initially sold off before a strong bounce back towards Y144.00. Cable bounced off the $1.5921 low to regain the $1.60 handle, moving to $1.6007 in Asia, while euro-sterling traded between stg0.9146/71. Cable initially moved above $1.6020 into the European session before slipping back to trade around $1.5975 at writing, with euro-sterling sitting towards the top-end of the day's range. Cable offers reported around the $1.6125 area with some stops above, while expiry interest is highlighted at $1.6135 for the NY cut. Key resistance area seen as last week's highs in the $1.6130 zone.

Cable sees the daily stochastic remain soft, although both it and momentum are attempting to turn off lows. While $1.5770 remains the low, the main Fibonacci retracements are $1.6141, $1.6255, $1.6369 and $1.6406 with more minor Fibonacci levels at $1.6119, $1.6201 and $1.6303. In euro-sterling, daily studies are now pointing back lower raising bear's hopes of a pullback towards further Fibonacci retracements of the Aug/Sep advance from stg0.8980. stg0.9191/98 offers initial resistance, being 50% of the stg0.9304 decline and Friday's high.

RES 4: $1.6467 High 23 Sep
RES 3: $1.6330/40 Low 23 Sept, 100-day moving average
RES 2: $1.6260 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.6127/34 Spike high 30 Sep, Low 21 Sept

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5997

SUP 1: $1.5803 Low 8 June, 1 Oct
SUP 2: $1.5770 Low 28 Sept
SUP 3: $1.5721 High Dec 2008 & 50.0% of $1.44 advance
SUP 4: $1.5688 38.2% of $1.3500 to $1.7041

INDICATORS
FX: Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut
* Euro-dollar; $1.4650
* Dollar-yen; Y88.95, Y90.00, Y91.00
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0700, C$1.0900
* Aussie; $0.8750
* Cable; $1.6135

European government bond supply drops dramatically this week and is due from Austria, Germany and Slovakia, totalling E4.3bln vs E30.255bln last week. Slovakia is due on Monday for no more than E127mln. Austria taps E2.2bln on Tuesday and Germany up to E2.0bln on Wednesday. Supply is countered by reinvestment flows from Germany, with redemption for E18bln and coupon payments for E1.7bln -- to turn net cash flows positive to the tune of E15.4bln vs -E14.05bln last week.

Elsewhere, seculative accounts increased their net euro long positions and modestly pared back their net yen long positions as implied by the September 29 data released Friday by the U.S. CFTC. The net position in non-commercial futures (ex-options) showed that speculators increased their net euro long to +39,766 contracts from last week's net long of +38,000 contracts. In the yen, speculative accounts had a net yen long of +44,856 contracts versus last week's net yen long of +45,615 contracts, which was the largest since February 3.

DAILY CALENDAR
Monday morning in Europe sees the final releases of services PMIs from France (0743GMT), Germany (0753GMT), leading up to the EMU release at 0758GMT.

UK data at 0830GMT also sees the CIPS Services PMI data as well as Official Reserves.

Further European data sees EMU August retail trade at 0900GMT, which is expected to come in at -0.4% m/m, -2.2% y/y.

At 0945GMT, ECB Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi participates in a Euro50 Group seminar in Istanbul, while at 1100GMT, Bundesbank Board member Thilo Sarrazin delivers a speech on the results of the German election.

US data starts at 1330GMT with the weekly MNI Capital Goods Index, which is followed at 1400GMT by the Employment Trends Index and the non-manufacturing ISM Index as well as at 1430GMT by the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index.

The ISM's non-manufacturing index is expected to rise to a reading of 50.0 in September after rising to 48.4 in August.

Meanwhile, back in Europe at 1415GMT, ECB Executive Board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell is due to give a keynote speech at Bad Ischler Dialog organised by sterreichische Sozialpartner, in Bad Ischl, Austria.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

NordMarkets Morning FX

MORNING FX

BRIEFING
A quiet Asian session to start the week with Japan closed Monday through Wednesday and several other centres closed for religious holidays. The only action of note was in sterling where the pound came under further pressure in early trade, stops below $1.6220 triggered to take it to $1.6212 before able to make a recovery to $1.6265 on reaction to stronger than expected Rightmove housing data. Release of BOE Quarterly Bulletin reversed the recovery attempt with rate falling under $1.6200 to $1.6185. Euro was buoyed by demand for euro-sterling, euro-dollar trade contained within a range of $1.4665/1.4713 though under pressure into early Europe on generally firmer dollar. Yen traded with a slight softer tone as equity markets eased, dollar-yen triggering stops above Y91.60 to take rate on to Y92.01. Very light data calendar for today, with main focus for the week on the FOMC statement Tuesday and G20 FinMin meeting Thursday/Friday. BOE Minutes from the Sep meeting are published Wednesday. Speeches from SNB Hildebrand and Jordan are set for Friday.

EURO
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.4685 and edged to session highs of $1.4713 in relatively subdued trade due to the holiday in Japan (closed through to Wednesday). Pressure on sterling provided the euro with some buoyancy, via demand for euro-sterling, but general dollar buys eventually weighed against further gains and saw rate pullback to $1.4680. Demand for euro-yen provided a lift back to $1.4706 but again rate met decent headwind selling above $1.4700 that saw rate drift lower through the balance of the session to $1.4665 into early Europe. Further sales have taken the rate to extended lows of $1.4655, but seen meeting decent demand interest in the area ahead of $1.4650, with talk emerging of stops below. Decent technical support noted down to $1.4640 expected to provide a cushion below, a break here to allow for a deeper move toward $1.4625/20 ahead of $1.4600. Offers seen placed between $1.4680/85 ahead of $1.4695/05, stronger toward $1.4720.

Elsewhere, speculative accounts increased their net euro long positions and pared their net yen long positions as per September 15, according to CFTC data released Friday. The net position in non-commercial futures (ex-options) showed that speculators increased their net euro long to +37,772 contracts from last week's net long of +18,033 contracts, the CFTC said. In the yen, as per Sept 15, speculative accounts had a net yen long of +37,107 contracts versus last week's net yen long of +40,799 contracts, which was the largest net long since February. Y Spec accounts have had a net euro long position since May 5 and maintained a net yen long since July 7. The euro closed at $1.4659 Sept 15, versus the levels seen late Friday near $1.4700. Dollar-yen closed at Y91.03 Sept 15 vs. Friday's closing levels near Y91.45.

YEN
Dollar-yen closed the week in NY around Y91.28, with euro-yen ending back around opening Asian levels at Y134.25. Traders reported a quiet Asian session Monday with Tokyo out until Wednesday, dollar-yen moving up from the Y91.30 area, while the cross found a base at Y134.20. Subsequent bounce was sufficient to push dollar-yen through Friday's Y91.55 high, though gains were initially capped ahead of Y91.60 as euro-yen topped out in the Y134.60 area. Majority of the Asian session was then subdued within the early ranges before a late spike in both pairs saw dollar-yen making a show above Y92.00 after stops were hit through Y91.65/80, as the cross moved towards Y135.00, so far stalling at Y134.97. Traders noting reports of stops now from various names on a break of Y135.10, system accounts in particular said to have left orders in that area. Techs meanwhile note the move back above the Ichimoku Cloud at Y134.84, a close above there today required for fresh upside momentum. Offers in dollar-yen are noted in the Y92.20/25 area, ahead of tech resistance at Y92.44 (21-day moving average).

EURUSD - TECHNICALS
Turning to the technical picture, initial resistance is still seen at $1.4768 as euro-dollar trades within the $1.4830 Bollinger band. Daily studies remain firm but are now well in overbought territory, highlighting the risks of a pullback.

RES 4: $1.4908 High Aug 22 2008
RES 3: $1.4851/62 100% projection of the Q4 2008 rally, High 22 Sep
RES 2: $1.4830 Current top of the daily Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.4768 High 17 Sep

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4687

SUP 1: $1.4648 Low 18 Sep
SUP 2: $1.4517/30 Low 14 Sept, Former resistance line from 3 June
SUP 3: $1.4447 August high
SUP 4: $1.4440 21-day moving average


USDYEN - TECHNICALS
Dollar-yen is trying to break back above the major low seen in July at Y91.75, helped by an upturn in momentum and the daily Stochastic study. Initial support is the 5-DMA at Y91.30. Euro-yen is focused on breaking above Ichimoku cloud top at Y135. Daily studies are mixed with the stochastic clearly bullish but momentum struggling to make ground.

RES 4: Y93.96 50% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 3: Y93.06 38.2% retracement of Aug/Sep decline
RES 2: Y92.40/80 21-day moving average, Kijun line
RES 1: Y91.75 Major low July

CURRENT LEVEL: Y91.72

SUP 1: Y91.30/50 5-DMA & Tenkan line
SUP 2: Y90.12/21 Lows Sept 11, 14, 16
SUP 3: Y89.62/67 Proj channel base, 50% proj of the Aug/Dec downmove
SUP 4: Y87.12 Major lows Dec/Jan


GBPUSD - TECHNICALS
Cable's recent head-&-shoulders break target has been filled, although studies remain weak keeping bears focused on channel base at $1.6182 and the $1.6115 double-low. Initial resistance is the 5-day moving average at $1.6380.

RES 4: $1.6822 76.4% of August pullback
RES 3: $1.6740 High 11 Sep
RES 2: $1.6672 Resistance line from July 2008 high
RES 1: $1.6380 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.6222

SUP 1: $1.6210 Hourly low
SUP 2: $1.6182 Channel base from June 8
SUP 3: $1.6115 Double-low from early Sep
SUP 4: $1.6080 Base of the daily Bollinger band


DAILY CALENDAR
European events for Monday start at 0700GMT, when ECB Executive Board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell is due to give the opening address at a conference on "Business Models in Banking: Is There A Best Practice?", in Milan.

0800GMT sees the Bundesbank publish it's latest Monthly Bulletin, while at 0900GMT, the ECB releases a survey on "Access to finance of small- and medium sized enterprises"

There is no major UK data remaining for Monday, but at 1005GMT, the Bank of England's Sentance speaks in London.

At 1100GMT, German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck, Chancellor Angela Merkel and former ECB chief economist Ottmar Issing are due to hold a press conference on financial market regulation proposals, in Berlin.

At 1215GMT, Riksbank Deputy Governor Lars Svensson is due to give a speech "Flexible inflation targeting and the crisis", at an event in Amsterdam.

US data starts at 1330GMT with the MNI Capital Goods Index, followed at 1400GMT by the leading indicators index, which is expected to rise 0.7% in August on positive contributions from slower vendor performance, rising stock prices, in increase in building permits, and rising consumer expectations. These were offset by negative contributions from the falling money supply and rising jobless claims.

At 1430GMT, the IMF releases analytic chapters of the annual Global Financial Stability Report, at the same time as the release of the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index.

At 1630GMT, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny participates in a panel discussion of "One Year After The Crisis", in Salzburg.



Best Regards,

NordMarkets.com

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My Scalp Technique

My scalp technique is very simple:

1. Using TF M5
2. Just using fibonacci pivot to find where's the support and resistance
3. You must know how to draw "trend line", draw it at H4 time frame, H1, M30 and so on
4. You need to know first where's the daily range
5. Go Long when price closed to Previous Low or closed to Bullish Trend Line
6. Go Short when price closed to Previous High or closed to Bearish Trend Line
7. Put SL below the support level when you go long
8. Put SL above the resistance level when you go short
9. Just Using TS or Manual close when u find retrace or revearsal candle

Regards
ICT

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