Markets Are Still Focusing on Developments in Greece

Briefing
Monday's late recovery tone in euro-dollar extended in early Asian dealing with the early market taking the rate from opening levels of $1.3385 to a high of $1.3417 as reported stops above $1.3420 attracted buyers.

Asian equity markets were pressured lower, led by the Shanghai Index which was trading off 2.4% by lunchtime as market reacted to talk of possible capital requirements on property developers, which in turn weighed back on euro-dollar. Strong sales of euro-dollar and euro-yen saw market move into a risk-off tone, taking euro-dollar back to $1.3364, while euro-yen squeezed down to Y125.34 from early highs of Y125.97.

Aussie-yen was sold lower by Japanese names despite release of better than forecast Australian PPI data, and a report in the Asahi press that Japanese Post will look to invest part of an investment portfolio of Y10tln overseas (though no time frame given). NZ Fonterra increased milk payments but slip in risk countered any positive Kiwi react.

Greece developments remain in focus. The BOK was also noted intervening to buy dollar-won earlier with expectation of euro-dollar demand later.

Euro
Opened Asia around $1.3385 with early demand continuing late NY's short squeeze, which had seen rate recover off a late Europe dip of $1.3299. Rate moved above $1.3400, meeting US investment and Nordic bank supply around $1.3405, but buy interest overwhelmed with reported stops above $1.3420 targeted. Sell interest ahead of this level capped move at $1.3417. The corrective pullback picked up momentum on risk aversion, prompted by losses in Asian equity markets, with a major French name a noted seller from around $1.3390.

Added sales in euro-yen squeezed rate to a low of $1.3364. Hedge fund demand ahead of $1.3360 provided a decent cushion, allowed rate to recover to $1.3385 ahead of the European open, easing back to challenge the overnight lows in early European dealing, extending the base to $1.3358 (50% $1.3399/1.3417). Rate currently trades around $1.3364. A break below $1.3358 to open a deeper move toward $1.3345/40 ahead of $1.3327 (76.4%). Resistance remains toward $1.3420, with stops reported above. Further stops above $1.3430. Offers then seen at $1.3450, with more stops on break.

RES 4: $1.3819 High 17 Mar
RES 3: $1.3705 Current top of Bollinger band
RES 2: $1.3692 High 12 Apr
RES 1: $1.3470 21-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3385

SUP 1: $1.3420 Base of the daily Bollinger band
SUP 2: $1.3201 Lows 22, 23 Apr
SUP 3: $1.3128 50% projection level
SUP 4: $1.3103 Minor support line from 18 Feb

Yen
The yen opened in early Europe around Y93.87 and Y125.59 vs the euro. Dollar-yen some decent flow going through in Asia both sides as Japanese exporters sold the pair down to Y93.73. Traders reported decent demand on the dip from a Trust Bank name speculating that the flow is related to the current round of Toushin launches, dollar-yen firmed as the bids soaked up the exporter supply and rallied to Y94.04 (the high) late in the Asian session.

Cross-yen was a little more volatile although again in a tightish range, euro-yen traded Y125.34-Y125.97 in Asia. The cross opened ahead of Y126.00 where offers at this level said to be for a mix of accounts but Japanese exporters included in those capped and the market pushed to the low Y125.34. With a lack of news and events the cross was confined to the range looking to the European session for some fresh impetus.

RES 4: Y95.09 61.8% retracement of 2009 decline
RES 3: Y95.05 Minor resistance line from Jan high. High 24 Aug 2009
RES 2: Y94.72/78 76.4% retracement of Aug/Nov decline, High 2 April
RES 1: Y94.37 High 26 April

CURRENT LEVEL: Y93.91

SUP 1: Y93.35/65 21, 5-day moving average
SUP 2: Y92.95 Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud
SUP 3: Y92.26 Minor support line 4 Mar
SUP 4: Y91.60/67 Low 19 Apr, 61.8% of 18 Mar to 2 Apr rally

Cable
Cable continues to hold above the 21-day moving average, now at $1.5330 as daily studies sit in neutral territory. This level should continue to be in focus as bears seek a close below, which could turn focus towards Fibonacci retracements at $1.5163, $1.5078.

Euro-sterling daily studies remain weak after turning lower from within neutral territory. This still leaves bears pushing for a re-test of the stg0.8604 lows to maintain the falling channel in place from the start of March.

RES 4: $1.5645 100-day moving average
RES 3: $1.5620 50% of 2010 decline
RES 2: $1.5580/93 High 23 Feb, 38.2% of Nov/Mar move
RES 1: $1.5522 High 15 Apr, Bollinger band

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5456

SUP 1: $1.5330 21-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5163 50% retracement
SUP 3: $1.5130 Low 6 Apr
SUP 4: $1.5078 61.8% retracement of April recovery 

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Focus Remains on Greece Developments

Briefing
The dollar was mixed in Asia, marking modest gains against the yen on firmer yen crosses but remained almost flat on the euro.

Euro-dollar lost ground at the start of the morning's session with a German name selling from $1.3381 to a $1.3317 low, before bids from Japanese accounts then appeared, from $1.3320, and sparked a modest short-covering bounce to a $1.3398 high. Euro-dollar eased as offers at $1.3400 capped its rebound, and traded between $1.3365 and $1.3380 ahead of the European open, currently around $1.3372.

Dollar-yen ran into some early profit-taking interest at Y94.00 at the start of the day, although the retreat was limited to Y93.93. The pair marked a Y94.37 morning high, but was then limited by sell orders from corporate accounts spotted just ahead, from Y94.50 to Y94.80.

Sterling retained its recent buoyant tone through Asia, extending its recovery off Friday lows of $1.5295 to $1.5468, and holding just off highs into Europe.

It is a very light data calendar today with attention remaining on Greek developments. FOMC on Wednesday is the next major point of interest ahead of US GDP Friday.

Euro
Euro-dollar closed NY Friday at $1.3372, having traded to a recovery high late in that session of $1.3400 on optimism over the proposed Greek loan provision. Rate came under early downside pressure into Asian trade, a major German name linked to heavy sales that took the rate down to a session low of $1.3317 before running into suggested option related demand. One trader notes decent sized option maturities for today with strikes at $1.3325, $1.3300 and $1.3280, possibly linked to the demand interest. Spec shorts covered back, with the same German name a noted buyer as the rate edged back above $1.3340, gaining pace ahead of the Tokyo fix and topping out at $1.3398 before easing back to $1.3360.

The euro managed a quick recovery to $1.3380 ahead of the European open, but fresh sell interest quickly emerged to knock rate back to $1.3350 into the session. The euro currently trades around $1.3358. Offers are seen placed towards $1.3400, with talk of stops on a break of $1.3410. Mix of offers and stops noted at $1.3440, the sell interest said to extend to $1.3450. Support noted from around $1.3320 (Asia low $1.3317), through to $1.3280, with one trader noting stronger interest begins from below $1.3295. Stops noted on a break of $1.3280.



RES 4: $1.3819 High 17 Mar
RES 3: $1.3710 Current top of Bollinger band
RES 2: $1.3692 High 12 Apr
RES 1: $1.3475 21-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3367

SUP 1: $1.3201 Lows 22, 23 Apr
SUP 2: $1.3111/28 Minor support line from mid-Feb, 50% projection
SUP 3: $1.3054/57 Supp line from Feb 2002, 38.2% of $0.8232 to $1.6039
SUP 4: $1.3022 Projection calculation from Dec, Jan downmoves

Yen
It was a moderate session for yen overnight with dollar-yen opening initially off of Friday's high levels and trading down to Y93.85. The dip was bought into and dollar-yen traded up to Y94.37 on cross-yen demand. Traders are wary of the weekly Ichimoku cloudline at Y94.28 level and note that Friday was the first time the pair had traded above the weekly cloud since August 2007. Offers are said to be stacking up ahead of Y94.50 through to Y95.00 whilst bids are building around Y93.80 area.

Cross-yen tested higher once again overnight after initially trading down to Y125.30 as traders looked at the Greek rescue package with a slight negative view. Traders note a lack of detail on the deal and questioning whether or not this will resolve Greece's problems long-term adding to the euro's woes. The weakness was short lived and a spike above Friday's high to Y126.30 ensued, offers capped and the cross moved back sub Y126.00 to open Europe around Y125.89 level.



RES 4: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug 2009, 61.8% retracement of 2009 decline
RES 3: Y95.04 Minor resistance line from Jan high
RES 2: Y94.72/78 76.4% retracement of Aug/Nov decline, High 2 April
RES 1: Y94.35 Hourly high

CURRENT LEVEL: Y94.22

SUP 1: Y93.30/60 21, 5-day moving average
SUP 2: Y92.95 Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud
SUP 3: Y92.15 Minor support line 4 Mar
SUP 4: Y91.60/67 Low 19 Apr, 61.8% of 18 Mar to 2 Apr rally

Cable
Opened Asian trade around $1.5380 and was initially pressed back to lows of $1.5365 as rate tracked euro-dollar's early fall. However, sterling retained its recent underlying buoyant tone which allowed rate to rebound, the move back up aided by sterling-yen demand. Rate met resistance around $1.5440 before edging on to $1.5468 ahead of the European open. Rate has been pressured back to $1.5425 into early Europe, traders noting macro supply hitting the early market.

Traders make note that ongoing dividend linked demand from a UK oil company expected again today, with talk also that a UK clearer has similar interest for its dividend needs. Cable currently trades around $1.5445. Offers seen placed from around the overnight high at $1.5468 through to $1.5476 (April 22 high), with stops above $1.5480. A break here to open a move toward $1.5500/10 ahead of $1.5525. Support $1.5325/15.



RES 4: $1.5650 100-day moving average
RES 3: $1.5620 50% of 2010 decline
RES 2: $1.5580/93 High 23 Feb, 38.2% of Nov/Mar move
RES 1: $1.5522 High 15 Apr, Bollinger band

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5432

SUP 1: $1.5310 21-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5163 50% retracement
SUP 3: $1.5130 Low 6 Apr
SUP 4: $1.5078 61.8% retracement of April recovery

Euro Continues Getting Hit By Greece Concerns

Briefing
The dollar was mixed in Asia Friday, gaining on the euro but lower against the yen.

Euro-dollar ran into heavy selling pressure at the start of the session, hurt by renewed concerns about Greece. Euro-dollar sank below the overnight $1.3257 low, with German name sales providing the main weight to take the rate through the reported option barrier at $1.3250. Stops were triggered through this level, which took the rate to fresh lows doe the year of $1.3201, meeting further barrier protection ahead of $1.3200.

The euro has since has been penned in by $1.3205/40, trading around $1.3232 in early Europe.

Dollar-yen this morning has weakened marginally, as yen crosses declined in a "risk-off" environment. The pair traded down from a high of Y93.64 to Y93.31 and now ttrades around Y93.40 into Europe. Euro-yen was also trading heavy though off Thursday's lows of Y123.32, Asia contained by Y123.41/124.25, around Y123.58 into Europe.

Euro
Euro-dollar was already slipping back off a late NY recovery to $1.3320, having seen lows in the session of $1.3257, easing under $1.3300 into the Asian session before coming under strong sell interest from around the $1.3280 area. A major German was linked to pressing rate to an initial low of $1.3265, before another wave of strong sales took out the NY base, then the barrier at $1.3250. Stops were triggered below this level to take rate to $1.3228. Support didn't last long before sales from Japanese names and a US investment bank targeted the next barrier at $1.3200. Defence of this level cushioned the move at $1.3201, with the rate then settling back into a $1.3205/40 range, currently around $1.3235 into early Europe.

Option linked demand remains ahead of $1.3200, one trader noting barrier interest down to $1.2800. Below $1.3200 expectation of further demand toward $1.3190, a break here to expose main stops, which if triggered to take rate down to $1.3165/60 area ahead of $1.3140. Resistance $1.3240, stronger between $1.3255/65. A break here to allow for a move back toward $1.3320/25. Traders also report Asian sovereign demand interest seen in place between $1.3220/10. Barrier interest is also seen placed every 50 pips down to $1.3000, one trader reports.

RES 4: $1.3720 Current top of Bollinger band
RES 3: $1.3692 High 12 Apr
RES 2: $1.3470 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.3360/80 5-DMA, Short-term channel top

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3209

SUP 1: $1.3118/28 Minor support line from mid-Feb, 50% projection
SUP 2: $1.3057 38.2% of $0.8232 to $1.6039
SUP 3: $1.3022 Projection calculation from Dec, Jan downmoves
SUP 4: $1.2993 76.4% retracement of the post-Oct 2008, 61.8% projection

Yen
Opened in early Europe around Y93.38 and Y123.62 Another relatively quiet session for dollar-yen overnight trading a Y93.31-Y93.64 range. Despite the general risk off moves going on dollar-yen holds up well and is still trading in the all too familiar Y92.50-Y93.80 range. Talk demand for the Toushin launches one reason why dollar-yen holds up as well as a Moody's downgrade for a major Japanese car manufacturer.

Cross-yen has been consolidating overnight ahead of the Y123.15 support level, traders reporting stops starting to build below this level with very large stops said to be sub Y123.00 whilst offers at Y123.80 cap the topside. With all the problems in Greece investors are looking to exit any risk trades put on earlier in the week. After yesterdays choppy session traders expect similar today with any bad news expected to impact the cross-yen markets.

RES 4: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug 2009, 61.8% retracement of 2009 decline
RES 3: Y95.02 Minor resistance line from Jan high
RES 2: Y94.72/78 76.4% retracement of Aug/Nov decline, High 2 April
RES 1: Y93.53/61 Minor res line from 2 Apr, High 22 Apr

CURRENT LEVEL: Y93.43

SUP 1: Y91.60/67 Low 19 Apr, 61.8% of 18 Mar to 1 Apr rally
SUP 2: Y91.30 55, 200-day moving average
SUP 3: Y91.05 100-DMA
SUP 4: Y90.67/90 61.8% of 4 March rally, Top of the Ichimoku cloud

Cable
Recovery off fresh lows of $1.5315 extend to $1.5355 as traders note PM Brown to give a press conference following release of UK GDP data. This event sparks suggestions that the GDP could be on the better side of expectations. Rate currently trades around $1.5352. Offers seen at $1.5365, stronger toward $1.5380.

Bids seen placed toward $1.5300, with stops now seen placed on a break of $1.5290. Earlier talk suggested demand interest to be in place between $1.5290/80.

ES 4: $1.5620 50% of 2010 decline
RES 3: $1.5580/93 High 23 Feb, 38.2% of Nov/Mar move
RES 2: $1.5547 Former channel support, Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.5522 High 15 Apr

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5366

SUP 1: $1.5280 21-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5163 50% retracement
SUP 3: $1.5130 Low 6 Apr
SUP 4: $1.5078 61.8% retracement of April recovery

Highlights: UK Retail Sales and Euro PMI

Briefing
The dollar was mixed in Asia Thursday, as weaker yen crosses dragged dollar-yen lower, although the dollar held firm on the euro.

Dollar-yen was last at Y92.85, having eased from early highs of Y93.19 (NY close). Euro-dollar is currently at $1.3398 in early European trade, after extending a tight Asian range of $1.3373/97 to $1.3401. Euro-yen wilted on a combination of weak euro sentiment and worsening risk appetite, with some traders highlighting an Asahi News article suggesting Japan could be close to an end to QE. This news weighed on the Nikkei, with knock on effects seen across other equity markets and adding to the risk-off tone.

Official activity seen again in local Asian currencies, which could prompt further euro-dollar demand on intraday dips. Sterling remains favoured, supported by ongoing dividend demand from a UK oil company expected during the day, with a UK clearer expected to have similar interest Monday for its dividend. Key resistance at $1.5446 is seen coming under pressure into early Europe. Stops are noted on a break of $1.5450, which if triggered to open a move on toward $1.5470/80. Talk suggests Asian sovereign sell interest to be seen at this latter level

Eurozone flash PMI's and UK retail sales provide this morning's highlights.

Euro
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.3392 and initially edged up to mark session highs at $1.3397 before meeting strong headwind sell pressure from early euro-yen sales. The rate was pressed back to $1.3373 before meeting support, the rate then gradually correcting higher through a mainly subdued session toward the early highs. Early Europe added further demand interest, probed for stops above $1.3400, taking the rate to $1.3403 but momentum quickly faded as rise quickly attracted sellers, profit taking as well as positioning ahead of stops said to lie at $1.3405/10.

The euro currently trades around $1.3395. Picking up talk of further sell interest placed between $1.3415/25, with further stops noted on a break of $1.3430. Further offers are also seen towards $1.3450 with more stops noted on a break of $1.3455. Support remains toward $1.3370, with option linked demand expected to emerge if the $1.3350 level seen threatened. Asian cenbank activity overnight in local currencies expected to produce demand from this sector into any dips, Asian sovereign names the main noted names that cushioned Wednesday easing at $1.3358. Stops below $1.3350, more through $1.3330.

RES 4: $1.3915/25 100-day moving average, 50% of 2010 range
RES 3: $1.3819 High 17 Mar
RES 2: $1.3680/92 Current top of Bollinger band, High 12 Apr
RES 1: $1.3485 21-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3390

SUP 1: $1.3350 Former resistance line 3 Dec
SUP 2: $1.3270/80/90 Low 25 Mar, 8 Apr, Bollinger band
SUP 3: $1.3246/50 Low 6 May, 50% projection level
SUP 4: $1.3057 38.2% of $0.8232 to $1.6039

Yen
Cross yen came under early sell pressure into Asian trade Thursday, with traders linking the move to a press report that the BOJ is likely to raise its growth and inflation forecasts in its outlook report next week. Japanese exporters led the selling, with Japanese trust banks also noted in the mix, taking euro-yen down from early highs of Y124.78 to Y124.05, with dollar-yen dragged lower from Y93.19 to Y92.74. Demand interest placed ahead of Y124.00 provided a cushion and allowed rate to recover back to the Y124.30/40 area. Dollar-yen was also trading off overnight lows into early Europe, currently trading around Y92.90.

Dollar-yen demand said to stretch from Y92.50 to Y92.20 expected to provide decent support, while main offers remain in place on approach to Y93.50 (NY high Weds Y93.45), though one trader suggests sell interest covers an area from Y93.30 through to Y93.80. Euro recovery efforts remain muted by the ongoing eurozone debt concern, primarily focused on Greece, with Portugal and Spain in the background, with traders looking to fade rallies. Euro-yen offers seen toward Y124.80, more at Y125.20/50.

RES 4: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug 2009, 61.8% retracement of 2009 decline
RES 3: Y95.00 Minor resistance line from Jan high
RES 2: Y94.72/78 76.4% retracement of Aug/Nov decline, High 2 April
RES 1: Y93.34/56 Minor res line from 2 Apr, High 21 Apr, 61.8% retrace

CURRENT LEVEL: Y92.87

SUP 1: Y91.60/67 Low 19 Apr, 61.8% of 18 Mar to 1 Apr rally
SUP 2: Y91.30 55, 200-day moving average
SUP 3: Y91.00 100-DMA
SUP 4: Y90.67/90 61.8% of 4 March rally, Top of the Ichimoku cloud

Cable
Cable opened Asia around $1.5415 and initially edged up to $1.5430, as early traders probed for stops above the NY recovery high at $1.5426. Rate slipped back to $1.5400 on cross yen sales, but strong underlying demand interest for sterling through straight cable (ongoing dividend linked demand by a UK oil company expected to be seen again Thursday, interest said to roll on to Tuesday, with traders also noting similar interest from UK clearer for Monday, as well as M&A Deutsche Bahn buying of UK Arriva approx stg1.5bln), as well as pressure on euro-sterling with the UK currency expected to be a major beneficiary of euro woes, as well as the mentioned M&A flow.

HSBC and GS have put out sell recs for the cross and seen adding weight. Cable recovered through the Asian session, pushing above Monday's high at $1.5435 and on to pressure the key $1.5445/50 area. Area held on first challenge, giving way on the second with triggered stops through $1.5455 taking it on to $1.5476. Asian sovereign sell interest has been suggested in place between $1.5470/80 though no reports received so far to confirm.

RES 4: $1.5620 50% of 2010 decline
RES 3: $1.5580/93 High 23 Feb, Bollinger band, 38.2% of Nov/Mar move
RES 2: $1.5522 High 15 Apr
RES 1: $1.5511 Former channel support

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5431

SUP 1: $1.5365 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5260 21-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.5163 50% retracement
SUP 4: $1.5130 Low 6 Apr

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Focus on UK Job Numbers and Greek Spreads

Briefing 

The dollar spent a fairly subdued Asian session holding steady against the yen and edging higher on the euro.
Dollar-yen was last trading at Y93.16, having traded a Y92.97/Y93.28 range in Asia almost flat from where it had ended in New York trade.

Euro-dollar was last at $1.3424, after a $1.3397/1.3466 overnight range, but down from where it had ended in New York around $1.3445.

The euro ran into renewed selling pressure, with some players initially taking aim at the overnight $1.3428 low and stop-losses said to be placed below $1.3420. Rumored sovereign demand at $1.3400 and larger buy orders in the $1.3390/85 region cushioned the downside, allowing the pair to inch its way back higher. Euro-yen provided some early downside pressure with strong sales noted into the Tokyo fix, which were said to be linked to French bond redemptions due early next week. The cross traded to a low of Y124.65, bouncing above Y125 into early European dealing.

Sterling has proved more resilient, cable edging back toward $1.5400 in early European trade.

Today sees a light data calendar with UK employment and BoE Minutes at 0830GMT being the highlights. Greek bond spreads also remain in focus.

Euro
Euro-dollar opened Asia around $1.3435, just off NY pressured lows of $1.3428. Rate initially edged up to mark session highs at $1.3446 before coming under strong headwind sell pressure via euro-yen sales. Talk of French bond redemptions into early next week cited as euro-yen was sold off, the move taking euro-dollar down to retest the NY low. The break below triggered stops that provided the added weight to take it down to initial lows of $1.3405. Move ran into Swiss name demand ahead of $1.3400, with some traders noting Asian sovereign demand interest into the dip.

Rate bounced back to $1.3425, settling for a while within $1.3415/25. Further sales in pre Europe open trade targeted stops below $1.3400, the rate touching a low of $1.3397 before profit take demand quickly emerged following the pressured move. Rate has since recovered to $1.3440, currently around $1.3435. Talk of Asian sovereign demand to be seen between $1.3400/1.3380, with minor stops mixed in from below the figure and extending down to $1.3370, larger below this latter level. Main offers seen up at $1.3480/00.



RES 4: $1.3925 50% of 2010 range
RES 3: $1.3819 High 17 Mar
RES 2: $1.3692 High 12 Apr, Current top of Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.3580 5, 21-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3415

SUP 1: $1.3368 Former resistance line 3 Dec
SUP 2: $1.3270/80 Low 25 Mar, 8 Apr, Bollinger band
SUP 3: $1.3246/50 Low 6 May, 50% projection level
SUP 4: $1.3057 38.2% of $0.8232 to $1.6039

Yen
The yen opened in early Europe around Y93.18 and Y124.89 vs the euro. Dollar-yen traded up to Y93.39 in New York last night taking out the stops placed between Y93.25-35 and then spent the Asian session in a Y92.97-Y93.28 range. Dollar-yen appears to have broken back into the recent range after taking out some stops sub Y92.50 over the last few sessions, exporters were noted sellers of dollar-yen on the rally and the crosses as they take advantage of the bounce. Also taking advantage of the bounce were retail investors who took the opportunity to book some profits in the crosses.

With all the selling dollar-yen dipped sub Y93.00 to Y92.97 however the dip was bought into and the pair recovered to Y93.20 area at the European open and onwards to Y93.28 during early European trade driven by cross-yen demand which looks set to continue, traders note offers around Y125.50 area in euro-yen with stops beyond Y125.70 level.



RES 4: Y95.05/09 High 24 Aug 2009, 61.8% retracement of 2009 decline
RES 3: Y94.99 Minor resistance line from Jan high
RES 2: Y94.72/78 76.4% retracement of Aug/Nov decline, High 2 April
RES 1: Y93.26 Minor resistance line from 2 Apr high

CURRENT LEVEL: Y93.19

SUP 1: Y91.60/67 Low 19 Apr, 61.8% of 18 Mar rally
SUP 2: Y91.25/30 55, 200-day moving average
SUP 3: Y90.90 100-DMA
SUP 4: Y90.67 61.8% of 4 March rally, Top of the Ichimoku cloud

Cable
Opened Asia around $1.5365 and initially edged up to $1.5379, in line with euro-dollar, before reversing lower as move met strong cross yen sales. Rate pressed down to lows of $1.5332 but met willing buyers into the dip. Rate recovered, pushing up to session highs of $1.5386, extending on to $1.5413 into early Europe, as euro-sterling pressed down to stg0.8721. Cable currently trades around $1.5390. Sterling continues to enjoy risk demand interest, benefitting from concerns toward the euro.

Support seen in place between $1.5380/70, a break to open a deeper move toward $1.5350. One major Swiss bank in a morning note sees $1.5335 as a pivot. Offers seen place at the recovery high at $1.5413, with further interest positioned from around Tuesday's high of $1.5435, strengthening toward $1.5445/50. UK employment data and BOE Minutes due for release at 0830GMT.



RES 4: $1.5620 50% of 2010 decline
RES 3: $1.5580/93 High 23 Feb, Bollinger band, 38.2% of Nov/Mar move
RES 2: $1.5522 High 15 Apr
RES 1: $1.5375 5-day moving average

CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5367

SUP 1: $1.5235 21-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5163 50% retracement
SUP 3: $1.5130 Low 6 Apr
SUP 4: $1.5078 61.8% retracement